We had the 2007 pitching rotation figured out...and then Freddy Garcia had to go and mess things up with two near-no-nos. The nerve of that guy, keeping us in the playoff hunt and all.
Freddy entered this month as the one the Sox were most likely to trade. His contract expires after 2007, he's performed under expectations the whole year, he's lost a few miles per hour on his fastball, and on top of that, his attitude came into question a handful of times throughout the year.
But in his last two starts, Freddy has posted near identical lines:
He surpassed last year's win total with a victory tonight, and he now has the third-lowest ERA among the five starters.
After lowering his ERA from 4.82 to 4.63 with his outing tonight, Mark Buehrle now stands as dead-last in that category at 4.79. With Javier Vazquez having maintained or lowered his ERA over his last nine starts, Buehrle is the odds-on favorite to finish in the cellar.
This is where it starts getting interesting. Like Garcia, Buehrle's contract runs through 2007. Like Garcia, Buehrle's suffered a drop in velocity this season. Like Garcia, Buehrle's under 30.
Where they differ, though, gets a little hazy. Buehrle has been up-and-down in the second half, but his high points haven't come anywhere close to the two turns in the rotation Freddy has had. To his credit, Buehrle's had fewer 5+ run outings during this stretch, so there's no clear-cut winner going into the offseason, barring unforeseen health issues.
All things being equal, Buehrle's the bigger priority. He has the steadier track record, he's the only lefty starter the Sox have, he's a better teammate, and he's a White Sox born and raised. Okay, at least raised.
I see two factors at work here as Kenny Williams plans his next starter-related move.
1) Don't make too much of Freddy's recent run. September, along with April, are the best months for pitchers. Orel Hershiser's record streak of 59 consecutive innings in 1988 came almost entirely in September -- he
didn't allow a single run in the final month of the regular season.
While Freddy's been great, he's dominated two subpar offenses that are wheezing to the finish line. The Angels and Tigers aren't the Yankees. When you add in the factors -- the month, the offenses, Freddy adjusting to a new pitch -- there are a lot of things working in his favor that won't always be there. That's not to take anything away from Garcia, because he can't be much better. All I'm saying is that certain caveats apply.
2) What if the velocity stays down? Freddy struggles to top 90, Buehrle hovers under 85 at times. If they return to their normal selves, the choice is Buehrle. If they don't? Well, I'm not fond of the idea of soft-tossing Buehrle against a predominantly right-handed world.
Garcia has illustrated he can be brilliant without a 94-m.p.h. heater. In
Buehrle's best outing since July, he still allowed a surplus of base hits. If I had to pick a guy to give the ball to right now, I'd give it to Garcia. That's not a ringing endorsement for a guy due a hefty contract extension.
This isn't a bad problem to have by any means; it's merely an interesting one. If nothing else, Garcia's upped his trade value while Buehrle's value's stopped increasing. It worked in the Sox's favor the last time Buehrle hit an extended rut. Buehrle opted to avoid an extension before the 2003 season, but when he went 2-10 to open the year, the Sox were eventually able to sign him to a reasonable three-year, $18 million deal with the $9.5 million option for 2007.
My gut instinct tells me Buehrle's going to cost just a smidgen more this time around, but every little bit of devaluation helps.