Wednesday, August 02, 2006 - Posts

Righty-lefty mismatch

One reason the Sox aren't able to get a big winning streak going is because two specialists on whom the Sox heavily rely aren't performing their specialty.

Namely, Juan Uribe isn't fielding, and Neal Cotts isn't getting lefties out.  I don't think either is anything to worry about in the long run, but they're partially the reason why the Sox can't quite get a big winning streak going. 

With an inexplicable drop of the most routine of foul pop-ups, Uribe has now committed four errors in seven games.  Two of them have turned into runs, and all of them have meant extra pitches for a staff that doesn't really need them.  Ozzie Guillen's not happy with him, and rightfully so.  But I don't know what one can do about it, because given Uribe's unorthodox-but-effective style, I imagine he's due to get in some ruts from time to time.

It's the same deal for Cotts, who has struggled in his last five games, giving up nine hits in 3 1/3 innings.  They haven't amounted to much in terms of blowing up his ERA, but he's allowed his only two inherited runners to score -- and stranding runners is something Cotts normally excels at.

More troubling is his work against lefties over that stretch.  Match-up advantages -- against both lefties and switch-hitters who are flipped to their weaker side -- have backfired.  Everybody from Joe Mauer to Brandon Fahey is teeing off on him, as the supposed disadvantaged batters are 7-for-10 in the last five games, including a homer, two doubles and a walk.

Even with this recent streak, lefties are only hitting .200 off him, but it points to how much he's relied upon to get that one key out -- and he hasn't gotten it as of late. 

Neither of these are huge problems, but they're snags nevertheless, and can turn eight-game winning streaks into merely 5-3 runs.  Plus, it's a rain delay, Cotts is entering the ballgame, and what else is there to talk about?

Update (12:27 AM): After David DeJesus' RBI triple, make that 8-for-11, and that makes three straight inherited runners scoring as well. 

Update (12:28 AM):  After Mark Teahen's single, that's 9-for-12.

Update (12:33 AM):  9-for-13 after Shane Costa strikes out.  In this case, two of three is bad.

Sandy is not your savior

Mark Buehrle rebounded to have his first good start in more than a month with six innings, two runs, and most importantly, five baserunners.  It's an important first step, but it's hard to count any start against Kansas City a legitimate stepping stone.  I mean, Javier Vazquez has a 1.59 ERA in 22 2/3 innings against the Royals, and his ERA against everybody else combined is 6.30.  That's why I didn't count any K.C. starts when sizing up the rotation's best outings in the midseason review.

That being the case, I wouldn't make much out of the impact Sandy Alomar Jr. may or may not have had on Buehrle during his first time receiving the struggling lefty this year.  In fact, I'm not counting on Alomar to help Buehrle all that much, because while people are noting that Buehrle's had some of his finest moments with Alomar serving as the other half of the battery, Alomar was also on hand for the worst stretch of Buehrle's career.

Buehrle's previous six starts might be historically bad, but it hasn't yet come close to the nine-game losing streak he had spread out over 11 starts in the first half of 2003.  And guess who caught the first six of those losses?  Yes, it was Alomar. 

That's why I'm not a big believer that Alomar himself is going to make any impact whatsoever in rejuvenating Buehrle's game, as Ozzie Guillen and others are hoping. 

Yes, as Mark Gonzalez writes, Buehrle did go 16-8 with a 3.29 ERA while starting with Alomar.  But last year, while working mainly with A.J. Pierzynski, Buehrle went 16-8 with a 3.12 ERA.  Before his recent meltdown beginning with his start against the Cubs, he was 9-4 with a 3.22 ERA. 

Pierzynski didn't just start becoming a bad game-caller.  Buehrle just started becoming a bad pitcher. 

The line he posted in the first half of 2003 is somewhat better than the one he posted now, although his ERA was buoyed by 10 unearned runs over those 11 games.  Here they are, side-by-side (as always, not counting the start against the Royals):

Year IP H ER HR BB K ERA
2003 61.2 82 47 11 26 32 6.86
2006 26.2 47 34 8 5 15 11.47

He's showing the same symptoms -- an insane amount of baserunners and more homers than he usually surrenders.  The difference lies in the .25 increase in WHIP, and some of those hits going for extra bases while the walks are stopping at first, mainly. 

That's not to say Alomar's presence won't affect Buehrle one way or another, because confidence is meaningful and can't exactly be measured, but throughout his career, it really hasn't mattered who's catching for him.  Alomar's been there for the best of times and the worst of times, literally, whereas this stretch is the first real rough one Buehrle's had with A.J. behind the plate.  And Buehrle won a lot of games with a combiation of Miguel Olivo, Josh Paul, Mark Johnson, Jamie Burke and Ben Davis catching as well.

We'll have a better idea of what Alomar might be able to do when Buehrle faces the Angels on Monday, and more so when Detroit comes to town on Saturday.  In the mean time, just be glad he's contributed with the bat.  Although, once again, when the hits are coming against Kansas City, it's tough to use them as any sort of gauge.