Three lefties came to the plate against Neal Cotts tonight, and all three reached. By my count, lefties and switch-hitters have reached base in 14 of their last 23 plate appearances, dating back to last month.
Worse yet, pretty much all his peripherals are going in the wrong direction. Comparing last year's numbers to those of the current year:
- Hits/9IP: 5.67 to 9.57
- K/9IP: 8.65 to 6.89
- SLG: .241 to .486
The one number in his favor is walks, as he's averaging 3.10 BB/9 IP, compared to 4.34 the year before. At the rate he's going, however, that won't last long. Compare his numbers before and after the All-Star Break:
|
G |
IP |
H |
ER |
BB |
K |
Pre-ASB
|
39 |
36.2 |
30 |
12 |
10 |
30 |
Post-ASB
|
15 |
9.2
|
17 |
4 |
6
|
6 |
His ERA is bailed out by a large number of inherited runners he's let score, as well as a few occasions where his teammates have prevented his runners from crossing the plate. But looking at his splits, here's also an interesting divide:
|
G |
IP |
H |
ER |
BB |
K |
| Home |
29 |
25.0 |
31 |
12 |
9 |
22 |
| Away |
25 |
21.1 |
16 |
4 |
7 |
14 |
He's also surrendered six of his seven home runs at U.S. Cellular Field, and oppenents are slugging .563 off him at home, and only .342 on the road. I have no idea what this means, I'm just throwing it out there.
Whatever the case may be, Neal's game has been de-railed since the All-Star Break, and it's really all due to location. He's way off on his spots, he's not getting ahead in the count, and hitters are looking for his fastball, not his change.
At the same time, I'm beginning to think more and more that Cotts had a career year in 2005 (1.94 ERA, 38 hits in 60+ innings) that he won't soon match. After all, he's only a two-pitch pitcher, with a low-90s fastball and a changeup that is maybe 10 miles per hour slower, and the secret is the slightly awkward delivery that hides the ball and gets it to the plate sooner than hitters would think.
If hitters solve that hitch, what else does Cotts have? Evidently not impeccable control, as we're seeing now. He's pretty much as precise as Matt Thornton, without the stuff that makes hitters -- especially lefties -- cry.
I'm not saying that it's time to give up on Neal. Far from it. His first-half performance would put him in the top 15 percent of relievers. But at the same time, I wonder how many top-flight relievers would struggle for weeks trying to retire hitters in solely matchup situations, especially when health isn't the issue.