Sox Machine: Chicago White Sox blog

Halfway home

Though the All-Star break isn’t until next weekend, the White Sox reached the halfway point on their season by playing in their 81st game today, which they dropped 15-11 to the Chicago Cubs.

With a record of 53-28, they’re only two games behind their pace last year, when they were 55-26 at that point. That record would’ve been good for a 6 ½ game divisional lead last year, but matching last year’s pace would still put the Sox in second place, a half-game behind the Tigers.  Detroit has just been playing that well.

Considering the Sox pitching staff hasn’t been effective on the whole as last year, and that the offense is improved enough to avoid that August/September swoon they encountered last year, I would expect the Sox to top last year’s win total as long as they maintain a reasonable level of health.  

Anyway, here’s what the roster projects to do if they match their first halves, and I’ve included my thoughts about whether they’d be likely to match it, exceed it or drop off.  

Player	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	?
Anderson	330	46	58	14	0	10	36	40	92	4	↑
Cintron	270	30	78	8	4	4	32	10	24	16	↑
Crede	554	94	168	32	0	32	114	28	52	0	↔
Dye	502	96	156	24	2	40	114	72	106	6	↓
Gload	108	10	30	4	2	0	12	2	14	2	↑
Iguchi	480	112	170	26	0	18	76	46	132	10	↔
Konerko	582	102	184	30	0	40	124	64	98	1	↓
Mackowiak	298	38	86	16	2	4	24	36	62	0	↑
Ozuna	176	36	76	10	2	2	26	8	16	10	↓
Pierzynski	508	60	166	34	0	10	52	24	62	0	↑
Podsednik	558	114	154	32	12	4	64	72	98	50	↑
Thome	514	126	150	20	0	54	136	108	158	0	↔
Uribe	482	58	114	26	4	18	74	14	78	0	↑
Widger	128	12	28	6	0	2	14	16	30	0	↑

There are truly some bizarre lines/thoughts in there.  The ones that stick out to me:

1. Brian Anderson with fewer hits than everybody except Ross Gload.
2. Juan Uribe, with nearly half his hits for extra bases while only walking 14 times.
3. Scott Podsednik on pace for 64 RBI
4. Three guys with 40 homers, including the first 50-homer season by a White Sox by Jim Thome

Otherwise, I would be surprised if there were significant declines by any of the big guns, because there really doesn't seem to be anything fluky by watching them play.  Aside from A.J., there haven't been a significant number of seeing-eye singles, balls barely clearing the fence, and so forth.  And I'd expect A.J.'s power numbers to go up a little.

Here's what the pitchers are doing:

Player	W-L	ERA	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	SV	?
Buehrle	18-6	3.86	233	250	118	100	30	56	102	0	↔
Contreras	16-0	3.54	193	174	78	76	18	54	136	0	↔
Cotts	2-4	2.87	63	52	20	20	10	18	40	2	↔
Garcia	20-8	4.65	205	224	108	106	38	52	120	0	↔
Garland	14-6	5.60	203	242	126	126	38	50	108	0	↑
Jenks	4-2	2.41	75	56	20	20	4	22	86	50	↑
McCarthy	6-8	4.14	83	78	19	19	8	26	56	0	↑
Montero	2-0	5.14	28	30	20	16	6	4	14	0	↑
Politte	2-4	7.94	45	70	42	40	14	24	22	0	↓
Riske	0-2	2.60	35	26	10	10	6	10	22	0	↔
Thornton	6-2	3.71	53	40	22	22	8	22	54	0	↑
Vazquez	16-8	5.15	203	224	108	106	20	50	164	0	↑

The strangest lines from this group:

1. Jose Contreras, shooting at Roy Face territory for best single-season winning percentage.
2. Mark Buehrle is on pace to allow 18 unearned runs; no other starter would allow more than two.
3. Javier Vazquez would walk the least, strike out the most, give up the second-fewest homers, and yet right now he's pitching the worst.
4. Bobby Jenks with 50 saves, Neal Cotts with two.  After having a closer by committee for the last four years, the contrast is stark.
5. Jon Garland's hits and homers -- there's no way he will maintain that pace, right?
   

Your 2006 All-Stars

To the victors go the spoils, right?  Well, when you look at the six -- yes, six -- White Sox heading to Pittsburgh for the All-Star Game, it's hard to argue against any of them (Mark Buehrle's last start notwithstanding).  A.J. Pierzynski might make it seven, but considering the vitriol he evokes, I imagine most non-Sox would want to do him a favor.  I'm going to guess he'll finish fourth, ahead of Ramon Hernandez but behind Justin Verlander, Francisco Liriano and Travis Hafner.

Here's who will be packing their bags next weekend.

Mark Buehrle Third AS appearance (2002, 2005) Chances are he made the team before his disastrous 11-run outing against the Cubs.  Before that, his numbers (9-4, 3.22 ERA) were perfectly defensible; afterwards, not so much. ESPN thought Curt Schilling had a better case than Buehrle, which can be said; same for Francisco Liriano.  But took the W in last year's All-Star Game, and that seemed to work out okay for all parties involved.

Jose Contreras First-time All-Star The big Cuban has won 16 consecutive decisions, going back 21 starts, and was among the league leaders in ERA before going on the DL.  Since his return, he's been shaky, posting a 5.37 ERA in eight starts, but the streak ensures him a spot on this team.  His game-starting capacity is in question, but he'll have to at least start an inning given the way he doesn't/can't hold runners.

Jermaine Dye Second AS appearance (2000) Probably was the surest bet to make the team, given that he's been the premier right fielder, and his status isn't complicated by DH considerations. Leads all AL right fielders in homers and slugging, tied for second in RBI behind the man he replaced, Magglio Ordonez. Also fifth in the league in OPS.  He should've been starting instead of Vladimir Guerrero -- too bad he's so quiet. Maybe he'll create some thunder in the Home Run Derby.

Bobby Jenks First AS appearance His shaky start helped him to be overshadowed by Jonathan Papelbon (0.43 ERA) and B.J. Ryan (0.45 ERA) in the early going, but he's been just as good in his last 20 outings (0.40 ERA). He's tied for the league lead in saves, so he's as deserving as any.  Kind of funny how there are two Angels castoff closers in this year's All-Star Game (Jenks, Derrick Turnbow), yet no Angel closers.

Paul Konerko Third AS appearance (2002, 2005) Konerko's been overshadowed by his slugging teammate Jim Thome, but he's put together his best first half ever.  He's also the only first baseman on the roster who has handled defensive duties on a regular basis. He's in the top 12 in homers, RBI, batting average, slugging and OPS.

Jim Thome Fifth AS appearance (1997, 1998, 1999, 2004) Who's going to argue with this pick?  He leads the AL in homers, slugging, and he's in the top 10 in RBI and walks.  He's also the second best defensive option at first behind Konerko, though he's looked at as merely a DH.  It's a testament to the year he's having that Travis Hafner couldn't find a spot on this team.

All-Star selection running log

Outfield:

First, the ESPN analysts make their picks.

John Kruk picks Manny Ramirez, Vernon Wells and Raul Ibanez for his outfield.  No mention of the Sox leader in slugging percentage.
Harold Reynolds picks Ramirez, Wells and Ichiro.  No mention of the Sox leader in slugging percentage.
Steve Phillips picks Ramirez, Ichiro and Vladimir Guerrero.  None of the three even mentioned the Sox leader in slugging percentage....

And the fans have voted for it's Ramirez, Guerrero and Ichiro.  Not a real big surprise. 

The infield is all Red Sox and Yankees, with David Ortiz and Mark Loretta on the right side, and Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez on the left side.  Pudge Rodriguez is the catcher.

Kruk vouches for Paul Konerko as first baseman, since he actually played first base all season.  Nice job, John.

Steve Phillips complains -- rightly -- about Joe Mauer not starting for the AL team.  He's batting .392 after all. 

Paul Konerko and Jim Thome are on board as the White Sox reserves in the infield, and Jermaine Dye will serve as a backup outfielder.  All three deserve to go, but I'm surprised Travis Hafner's not involved somehow.

The National League is all Mets, with David Wright, Jose Reyes, Paul Lo Duca and Carlos Beltran starting.  Jason Bay is starting in right, the only real surprise thanks to a big voting push.  They were plugging Bay all week long during the three-game series with the Sox, and even Jack Wilson made a run at the starting spot.  Pittsburgh may be a lousy team, but at least they have real All-Stars.  On the other hand, Kansas City's All-Star selection is going to be scary.

Phillips and Kruk are complaining about the Bay pick, saying Carlos Lee should've been starting in his place.  Carlos Lee, starting outfielder on an All-Star team?  I would've expected Magglio to have gotten there first.

I just looked up Vladimir Guerrero's numbers -- he's not even slugging .500.  He's batting .292/.328/.498, with 16 homers and 57 RBI.  Jermaine's line is .309/.397/.606, with 20 homers and 56 RBI.  This isn't new, but Steve Philips is an idiot. 

Mark Buehrle, first White Sox selection -- but of course they spent the time picking apart this pick because he's not Curt Schilling.  Mark Redman is the culprit -- 5-4, 5.59 ERA, but they'd rather rip on Buehrle.  (Even though I'll be ripping on Buehrle when I finally write the Cubs-Sox recap.  But family can talk about family).  Jose Contreras is also on board.

Bobby Jenks is on board as well, joining B.J. Ryan, Jonathan Papelbon and Mariano Rivera in the bullpen.  That's some great company.

Steve Philips has picked Jose Contreras to start for the AL team, saying that the American League needs to win this game, so they should pick a guy who's impervious to losing.  Kruk picked Roy Halladay, Reynolds picked Johan Santana, and given the way Contreras has pitched lately, those are better choices. 

Laundry break.

Only three pitchers from the NL Central -- Carlos Zambrano and Chris Carpenter as starters, Derrick Turnbow as closer.  Turnbow has a 4.04 ERA, which surprised me.

Phillips thinks Mariano Rivera should close out a tight game, "no disrepect" to Bobby Jenks.  Kruk says that Ozzie may go with the guy who helped him win the World Series to finish the game, but Phillips said Rivera should be in if the AL "wants to win" in the ninth. 

Paul Konerko, Jermaine Dye and Jim Thome are reserves.  Travis Hafner is a difficult omission.  Ozzie's on TV now.

Ah, it's Diplomatic Ozzie.  Handled questions about the recent flaps very well, said that he chose the team not by himself, but with a committee of people from around the league. 

Can't argue with the NL bench, really, but that's what happens when there's inferior talent.

Phil Garner only picked one Astro (Lance Berkman) -- Kruk said Garner should've picked Craig Biggio as a sign of respect; Houston just has no other positional stars than Berkman.

Jermaine Dye will be the White Sox representative in the Home Run Derby.  Better him than Konerko.

Difficult decision for the AL 32nd man -- Justin Verlander, Travis Hafner, Ramon Hernandez, Francisco Liriano or...A.J. Pierzynski!  I can't imagine him getting a lot of votes.  Difficult decision between Verlander, Hafner and Liriano. 

Look, Ma -- lumps!

To follow up on Javier Vazquez, I went through his season, start-by-start, to see how well the actual sequence of events represents those numbers.

• April 8 vs. Royals:  Good start for Vazquez, but allows both runs in same inning by allowing a single, hitting a batter, and then a two-run double.
• April 14 vs. Blue Jays:  Allows seven runs, two-run homer in second, five runs in the fifth.  In the fifth, he gave up the lead with three two-out RBI.
• April 19 vs. Royals:  Two hits, no runs in eight innings.  No jams.
• April 25 vs. Mariners:  Allowed two runs, both in the same inning.  Boone Logan actually let them in, though.
• May 1 vs. Indians:  Allowed one unearned run -- first one-run inning of the year -- thanks to errors by Scott Podsednik and Tadahito Iguchi.
• May 6 vs. Royals:  A pair of one-run innings. 
  
• May 13 vs. Twins:  Five-run meltdown against the Twins, with four runs coming with two outs.  Also allowed a two-run homer to Luis Castillo (he only has two on the year).
• May 18 vs. Devil Rays:  Two one-run innings, the first was an RBI single with two outs.  Surrendered lead in seventh inning with three two-out runs.
  
• May 23 vs. Oakland:  Gives up all three runs in same inning on Eric Chavez three-run homer with one out.
• May 29 vs. Indians:  Stranded only two runners who made it to scoring position during scoreless outing.
• June 3 vs. Rangers:  Five consecutive hits leads to two runs in second; four in a row leads to three runs in fifth
• June 9 vs. Indians:  One run in the first inning on two two-out singles; Neal Cotts gave up two other inherited runs.
• June 14 vs. Rangers:  A couple solo shots, but big inning was four-run third, allowing five straight batters to reach with two outs. 
  
• June 20 vs. Cardinals:  Two one-run innings; first inning featured two two-out singles, scoring one.
• June 25 vs. Astros:  Allows nine runs, multiple runs in each inning Astros scored.  Two-out, two-run double in first, pair of two-out, two-run homers in fifth, allowed three straight hits before being pulled in seventh; all would score.
• July 1 vs. Cubs:  Two multiple-run innings -- two-run double in the second, three-run homer in fifth
  

By my count, Vazquez has allowed runs in 27 different innings this season, and in 17 of those (63 percent), the opponent scored more than one run.  While I'm not going to go through all the starters' game logs, Jon Garland makes for the most interesting comparison since he's surrendered more runs. 

On the season, Garland has allowed 17 multi-run innings out of the 35 (49 percent) in which opponents have scored on him.  That's higher than I thought, but mainly because he got off to such a lousy start.  In his first two starts, he allowed opponents to put up crooked numbers in five out of six scoring innings. 

I'm pretty much an advanced statistical hack, but what this indicates to me is an alarming lack of damage control, and considering his numbers from last season were marred by four terrible starts, this is a problem that's followed him around since he left Montreal.  The only difference is that he's he's already had three terrible starts this year, if you define them as allowing seven earned runs or more. 

While Vazquez didn't have one one-run inning in April (3.67 ERA), he was able to work around it thanks to a low hit rate and other solid peripherals.  Now it seems he's back to giving up runs in bunches, except there's a greater chance for that because opponents are hitting him better (.338 in June, as opposed to .211 in April).  Here's hoping Don Cooper can right the ship, because Javy's demoralizing meltdowns will be far less acceptable in August and September.