One story that likely will receive too much coverage: Joe Crede's contract negotiations.With Alex Cintron's one-year deal now in and on the books, Crede is the only Sox left to not have signed a contract for the 2007 season.
From the Trib:
Crede, who avoided arbitration last winter when he signed for $2.675 million (plus $200,000 in incentives), could be a problem this year, looking to perhaps more than triple his salary.
First of all, based on recent Jerry Reinsdorf history, Crede has less than a 50 percent chance of going to arbitration considering the Sox haven't gone to court since 2001. The last player to make it that far was
Keith Foulke, who
won his hearing and saw his salary leap from $445,000 to $3.1 million. Of course, Foulke had his second straight dynamite year out of the bullpen, including his first as a closer.
If Crede is seeking around $8 million -- based on the part about Crede and Scott Boras seeking to triple his 2006 salary of $2.675 million -- I doubt that he'll get it. He only has one truly above-average season in his belt, and he broke down in the last month due to a balky back for which he
has subsequently refused surgery.
Still, the worst-case scenario is that Crede wins his case and the Sox have to pay him $8ish million for one season. Considering the money they've shed in the Freddy Garcia deal with only small pay increases and
Toby Hall to counter it, the Sox should have no problem absorbing it if he can only play 50 games this year, or otherwise falters. And if Crede gets that much and responds with a year similar to
his 2006 through September, then he'll still be a bargain in this market.
My WAG is that he gets around $5.5-6 million. We'll see what happens, but either way, it's not that important. It seems that
neither side is expressing a whole lot of goodwill, and I wouldn't expect Kenny Williams and Reinsdorf to start bending. A couple million in or against Crede's favor won't make a difference.
One story that should get more play: How Barry Zito's contract relates to Williams' moves.We've already seen plenty of finger-wagging from the Chicago media after Kenny
traded Freddy Garcia and
Brandon McCarthy, but after it was reported that
Zito signed a seven-year, $125 million contract with the San Francisco Giants, it should be pretty clear that Williams' rationale is solid.
It isn't Kenny's shedding of established starters that is worth criticizing. Considering the price of retaining established starters, especially those showing significant warning signs such as Zito, Williams' strategy of acquiring more quality arms than there are available pitching spots is a smart idea with a lot of foresight. Now, criticizing the arms Kenny has acquired -- Gavin Floyd, Gio Gonzalez, John Danks, etc. -- that's worth chastising if the proof is there, and there is
some proof.
Unfortunately, that's not the prevailing thought. The
prevailing thought is that getting rid of heroes from two years ago -- even if they were mortal in 2006 -- is a kick in the balls to everybody with a modicum of emotion invested in the team. Phil Rogers
called it despicable.
But guys like Rogers also know that
Buehrle's finances are tied to Zito's -- and if
Buehrle and
Zito are roughly equal pitchers like the numbers show, that's not a cost that good vibes will be able to cover up should failure show its ugly face.
Thanks to Baseball-Reference.com's neutralization tool that makes up for the difference between McAfee Coliseum and U.S. Cellular, we can see that the two lefties are roughly on even footing:
| Pitcher | W-L | ERA | IP | K/BB
| HR |
| Buehrle | 93-64 | 3.48 | 1451.0
| 2.66
| 159 |
| Zito | 95-61 | 3.38 | 1444.0 | 2.02
| 144 |
Average those numbers over their seven years apiece, and they're roughly equal. Zito's comes out as slightly ahead, so let's say that Buehrle is 90 percent of the pitcher Zito is (Zito is 10 percent better at preventing homers, according to the neutralized stats). If that's the case, Buehrle is still "worthy" of $112.5M. Buehrle doesn't have a Cy Young Award in his cabinet like Zito, so let's dock him to a nice round number -- $100 million for seven years.
Even if Buehrle bounces back to have a respectable Buehrle-like season, is he worth locking up into his late 30s at $15 million a year when the Sox have more pressing roster needs? Especially considering his strikeout rates are declining, has shown the proclivity to get stuck in torturous ruts and managed to be the
worst pitcher in baseball for half a season at a time? That's not even counting that he featured diminished velocity on his fastball last year, causing him to throw it
the least often out of any American League pitcher.
Considering the Sox will have to find ways to replace or re-sign Jermaine Dye, Jim Thome, Tadahito Iguchi, Joe Crede, A.J. Pierzynski, Jon Garland and a couple others after 2008, Kenny will have to pick and choose carefully. Stocking up on great arms is a great first step to making his decisions a little easier. Now some of them need to pan out, and that's something nobody knows yet.
Aside: The last lefty to sign a $100 million contract was
Mike Hampton, who, like Zito, had 99 walks versus 151 strikeouts in his contract year.