Sox Machine: Chicago White Sox blog

First impression

This evening, I've been thumbing through Total White Sox: The Definitive Encyclopedia of The World Champion Franchise, which I received as a Christmas gift.  If you can get past the cover (Scott Podsednik?  Come on.), it has a lot of neat stuff in it.  At the very least, it's a good place to start research.  It's written by the official Sox team historian Richard Lindberg, so I imagine it's about as true as one guy (and some editors) can make it.

A few things have me puzzled, though, upon first flip-through:

1. A picture of Tadahito Iguchi labeled as Sandy Alomar Jr.  I know they both wore No. 15, but that's about the only way one can confused a 5-foot-10-inch Japanese guy with a 6-foot-5-inch Puerto Rican.  Then again, I confused Ron Kittle and Ron Karkovice a few days ago, so I'm one to talk.

2. Terry Bevington's bio includes nothing about his signal-to-nobody in the bullpen.  That and the fights with Phil Garner and Richie Garcia are the only things I remember about the guy.

3. Lance Johnson's bio is written in the present tense.  Some sentences:

• "Like fine wine, Lance Johnson keeps improving with age..."
• "Even though Lance has moved on to greener pastures in the National League..."
• "Though he is not known as a big RBI man..."

I had to check when Johnson retired -- it was after the 2000 season.  Incidentally, there was a book called Total White Sox 2000, but it's by a whole 'nother guy, so that doesn't explain it. 

4. Speaking of Karkovice, there's a doozy of a sentence in his bio.  On the whole, it's fine -- it mentions his time served under Carlton Fisk, his defensive prowess, the popularization of the one-handed catching style...  and then:


That's either extremely sarcastic for reference material, a backhanded compliment or the softest put-down ever.  And if that format doesn't make at least sporadic appearances in previews and eulogies, I'd be letting you all down.

Lordy, Lordy, it's a top 40

Clicking around Baseball-Reference.com like I often do when I'm bored, I paused on the White Sox's single-season home run leaderboard.  It struck me strangely to see Jermaine Dye's name up there, second only behind Albert Belle.  He just hit his last homer a couple months ago, so it didn't feel historic.

Nevertheless, that's what it was, and I started to try to place Dye's 2006 campaign in terms of the greatest seasons in Sox history.

Well, dominoes started to fall, and at the end of the day I had a list of about 45 great seasons in Sox history.  After lopping off the least significant, I ended up with 40 outstanding campaigns.  After shuffling and re-shuffling, I put them into a fairly decent order, and now I have a better idea where Dye stacks up.

Where exactly his near-MVP season falls, you can find out my estimate below:

• Nos. 40-31
• Nos. 30-21
• Nos. 20-11
• Nos. 10-1

Shortstop, name drop, and roll

The shortstop we have:  Juan Uribe is back in court, but who the hell knows why.  The last we heard, the farmer had 10 days to produce evidence.  Ten days passed, and 10 more days passed, and 10 more days passed, and now some 37 days later, we find out that he's not in the clear. 

And we think our legal system is screwed up.

The shortstop we don't have: Thanks to Al M. for sending this fascinating rumor my way.  Sure, they're just words on a message board, but it's good discussion fodder if nothing else:


Miguel Tejada, huh?  Let's say this rumor is coming from Ken Rosenthal or somebody, and the Orioles haven't made outrageous demands for Tejada in the past.  Like Mr. T says, it's fun to pretend.  Here's what Tejada offers:

• His slugging/home run total has dropped for two straight years in a hitter's ballpark, but
• He set a career high in batting average last year.
  
• He's played in 162 games for six straight years.
• He's stolen 25 bases in his last 29 attempts.
  
• He stands to make $38 million over the next three years.
• He was perfectly average defensively, according to Zone Rating.
• He'll turn 31 next May.
• The Bill James Handbook likes him as a baserunner (+1)
  

Say they want two pitching prospects and Fields/Crede  -- because if they only want one of the arms the Sox just acquired, I'd do the deal without thinking twice.  One on the level of John Danks/Gio Gonzalez, the other Lance Broadwayish in quality.  Plus Crede.

Would you pull the trigger?

Money matters

One story that likely will receive too much coverage: Joe Crede's contract negotiations.

With Alex Cintron's one-year deal now in and on the books, Crede is the only Sox left to not have signed a contract for the 2007 season.  From the Trib:


First of all, based on recent Jerry Reinsdorf history, Crede has less than a 50 percent chance of going to arbitration considering the Sox haven't gone to court since 2001.  The last player to make it that far was Keith Foulke, who won his hearing and saw his salary leap from $445,000 to $3.1 million.  Of course, Foulke had his second straight dynamite year out of the bullpen, including his first as a closer. 

If Crede is seeking around $8 million -- based on the part about Crede and Scott Boras seeking to triple his 2006 salary of $2.675 million -- I doubt that he'll get it.  He only has one truly above-average season in his belt, and he broke down in the last month due to a balky back for which he has subsequently refused surgery.

Still, the worst-case scenario is that Crede wins his case and the Sox have to pay him $8ish million for one season.  Considering the money they've shed in the Freddy Garcia deal with only small pay increases and Toby Hall to counter it, the Sox should have no problem absorbing it if he can only play 50 games this year, or otherwise falters.  And if Crede gets that much and responds with a year similar to his 2006 through September, then he'll still be a bargain in this market.

My WAG is that he gets around $5.5-6 million.  We'll see what happens, but either way, it's not that important.  It seems that neither side is expressing a whole lot of goodwill, and I wouldn't expect Kenny Williams and Reinsdorf to start bending.  A couple million in or against Crede's favor won't make a difference.

One story that should get more play: How Barry Zito's contract relates to Williams' moves.

We've already seen plenty of finger-wagging from the Chicago media after Kenny traded Freddy Garcia and Brandon McCarthy, but after it was reported that Zito signed a seven-year, $125 million contract with the San Francisco Giants, it should be pretty clear that Williams' rationale is solid.

It isn't Kenny's shedding of established starters that is worth criticizing.  Considering the price of retaining established starters, especially those showing significant warning signs such as Zito, Williams' strategy of acquiring more quality arms than there are available pitching spots is a smart idea with a lot of foresight.  Now, criticizing the arms Kenny has acquired -- Gavin Floyd, Gio Gonzalez, John Danks, etc. -- that's worth chastising if the proof is there, and there is some proof.

Unfortunately, that's not the prevailing thought.  The prevailing thought is that getting rid of heroes from two years ago -- even if they were mortal in 2006 -- is a kick in the balls to everybody with a modicum of emotion invested in the team.  Phil Rogers called it despicable.

But guys like Rogers also know that Buehrle's finances are tied to Zito's -- and if Buehrle and Zito are roughly equal pitchers like the numbers show, that's not a cost that good vibes will be able to cover up should failure show its ugly face.

Thanks to Baseball-Reference.com's neutralization tool that makes up for the difference between McAfee Coliseum and U.S. Cellular, we can see that the two lefties are roughly on even footing:

Pitcher	W-L	ERA	IP	K/BB	HR
Buehrle	93-64	3.48	1451.0	2.66	159
Zito	95-61	3.38	1444.0	2.02	144

Average those numbers over their seven years apiece, and they're roughly equal.  Zito's comes out as slightly ahead, so let's say that Buehrle is 90 percent of the pitcher Zito is (Zito is 10 percent better at preventing homers, according to the neutralized stats).  If that's the case, Buehrle is still "worthy" of $112.5M.  Buehrle doesn't have a Cy Young Award in his cabinet like Zito, so let's dock him to a nice round number -- $100 million for seven years.

Even if Buehrle bounces back to have a respectable Buehrle-like season, is he worth locking up into his late 30s at $15 million a year when the Sox have more pressing roster needs?  Especially considering his strikeout rates are declining, has shown the proclivity to get stuck in torturous ruts and managed to be the worst pitcher in baseball for half a season at a time?  That's not even counting that he featured diminished velocity on his fastball last year, causing him to throw it the least often out of any American League pitcher.

Considering the Sox will have to find ways to replace or re-sign Jermaine Dye, Jim Thome, Tadahito Iguchi, Joe Crede, A.J. Pierzynski, Jon Garland and a couple others after 2008, Kenny will have to pick and choose carefully.  Stocking up on great arms is a great first step to making his decisions a little easier.  Now some of them need to pan out, and that's something nobody knows yet.

Aside:  The last lefty to sign a $100 million contract was Mike Hampton, who, like Zito, had 99 walks versus 151 strikeouts in his contract year. 

Didja miss me?

Catching up after a few days off...

McCarthy trade aftermath

Dumping out a boatload of links:

• I did like Jeeves' Kenny Williams-Jerry Krause link, and Kenny's moves, which have been beaten down in the press, suggest that old notorious mantra of "organizations win championships."  Of course, Williams gives all the credit to the players when they succeed and often when they fail, though he also holds himself accountable.
• Jamey Newberg of the Newberg Report gives his own detailed perspective into the deal from a Rangers fan's point of view.  It's a pretty dense read, but he is right when he says you don't see many baseball card trades anymore.  That's definitely the right term for this one.
• The Cheat ranks the Sox's new prospects accompanied with notes from Baseball America.  I'm not real as high on Sisco, because if the Sox are hinting that Brandon McCarthy is uncoachable, Sisco's reputation is worse; I'd probably go Danks-Gio-Masset-Floyd-Sisco-Aardsma-Rasner-Vazquez.
• Joe Cowley says Don Cooper likes what he sees, and he's not "just kissing the GM's ass."  But the ledge-jumpers Cowley refers to in his lede aren't Sox fans...
• Once again, they're members of the Chicago media:  Here, here, here, here, and here.  The last one is intentionally not a link, because you know who I'm talking about.

Cintron, Sox reach contract

Alex Cintron avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $1.9 million deal.  It's a perfectly acceptable deal for a perfectly acceptable backup.  I still wouldn't want him starting if Juan Uribe is still in trouble, but I like having him around.

Gerald Ford, dead

When I saw on TV this morning that Gerald Ford died this morning, I was half-expecting to hear that it was because he jumped out of an office building, was chopped up by a propeller of a commuter plane, strangled by the corpse of Richard Nixon or mauled by a circus lion in a convenience store at the senseless age of 93.

Black Mac whacked

Well this was unexpected.

Kenny Williams up and dealt Brandon McCarthy and David Paisano to the Texas Rangers for John Danks, Nick Masset and Jacob Rasner. 

I know the jury's been out on McCarthy.  I personally feel like he would've been able to duplicate Freddy Garcia's line for better or for worse last year; others were scarred by his late-inning meltdowns.  He was by no means a sure-fire bet for major-league success, but considering he had success as a starter in his brief Sox career (4-3, 4.12 ERA, 1.11 WHIP), I felt fairly comfortable with him at the bottom of the rotation.

If the Sox front office felt McCarthy's homertastic ways (one every five innings) wouldn't fare well long-term at U.S. Cellular Field, I could understand it.  But then I look at Danks' numbers, and I don't see much of a difference.

Like McCarthy, Danks was young at every level -- at 21, Danks was one of the youngest pitchers at Triple-A.  Here's their combined stats from their most recent stops at AA and AAA.

Name	IP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	K/9	WHIP	ERA
Danks	140.0	9.06	1.41	3.60	9.90	1.41	4.24
McCarthy	145.1	7.86	1.11	2.35	9.85	1.14	3.84

I've read and heard rave reviews about Danks' stuff, but considering McCarthy was also young for his levels (and pitched far more of those 145.1 innings in the bandbox at Charlotte), I'm not sure what's to love about Danks.  He is left-handed, so he's a possible replacement for Mark Buehrle should he be the next Sox pitcher whom Williams shows the door.

One encouraging note about Danks is that he's stumbled at the start of his Double-A and Triple-A career, but eventually gained confidence to overcome the disappointments.  Then again, so did McCarthy.

Masset is another candidate for the front end of the bullpen, who has started most of his his minor-league days.  He has the same problem as Danks in that he gives up a lot of hits, but he's shown the capability of preventing the long ball.  He throws a heavy two-seamer and gets a lot of ground balls, which should make him a decent candidate for survival at the Cell.  At the very least, he bolsters the Triple-A pen.

Rasner just turned 20 and hasn't looked like anything special thus far.  Maybe some work at Winston-Salem will get him on the right track.

I'll allow that this move has potential, because Danks has a Barry Zito ceiling from what I've read, and Masset could be everything we liked about Sean Tracey, except with control.  I just can't get excited about it because I don't see what edge he has on McCarthy, who has already succeeded at the Cell to varying degrees when starting games.

While Danks doesn't have any service time, McCarthy wasn't even arbitration-eligible.  Williams is taking a hell of a gamble by counting on one of Danks or Masset or Gavin Floyd to contribute in 2007, and even towards the future, this is mostly a lateral move. 

I suppose I'm just sort of confused, and the only way this makes a lot of sense is if Danks is dealt to Tampa Bay or Toronto to shore up one of the outfield spots.  If he's staying put, then maybe I just need to see Danks for myself to feel better about this.

Where's the Tylenol?

I'll be returning to the motherland, flying to Chicago after work this evening.  That being said, I'll be taking a short break for the next few days for Christmas.  Looks like the 47 straight days with a post streak is going to end at some point.

The site won't go completely dark.  If big news breaks, there'll be a post about it, and I hope to be able to execute at least one extended entry if technology complies.  Who knows, I may knock out some stuff on the plane rides if I'm able to think of anything without Internet access.

At any rate, enjoy the holiday, and I hope the KwanzaaBot brings you everything you ask for.

Happy holidays.

A very Thome preview (updated)

Jim Thome's 2007 preview has been posted in the Meet the Sox blog.  Don't forget to make your projections between now and Opening Day.

I figure this is what the slate looks like for the rest of the year, in terms of the way I'll attack them:

Definitely*  not going anywhere: Jose Contreras, Brandon McCarthy Jermaine Dye, Bobby Jenks, Matt Thornton, Toby Hall.

Probably not going anywhere:  Rob Mackowiak, Joe Crede, Jon Garland, Alex Cintron, Pablo Ozuna, David Aardsma

Could be gone:  Mark Buehrle, Javier Vazquez, Brian Anderson, Juan Uribe

I hope he's gone: Scott Podsednik, Uribe (if he's thrown in jail)

Might not make the roster: Ryan Sweeney, Gavin Floyd, Andrew Sisco, Charlie Haeger, Luis Terrero, Jerry Owens, Josh Fields, Boone Logan.

*or close to it

Two pitchers leave the game

For some reason, I was under the impression that Brad Radke killed the White Sox, but his career game log against the South Siders is worse than his overall career performance. 

It's most likely due to two particular stretches:

In 2003, Radke helped deal the Sox's playoff hopes a death blow with two excellent starts in September.  The first came on Sept. 11, when he pitched seven strong innings to give the Minnesota Twins a 5-2 victory and a share of first place, one that they wouldn't relinquish for the rest of the season.  And Radke's complete game five days later in the middle of a sweep over the Sox helped to keep the Twins rolling towards their second straight division title.

(You can watch the pennant race here.  This site is awfully handy.)

Then in 2006, with a non-existant throwing shoulder, he managed to hold the Sox to only one unearned run on Aug. 19 -- although he gave up three thanks to piss-poor defense.  Unlike Freddy Garcia the day before, Radke didn't call out his teammates.  Then, he lasted only two innings in his last start against the Sox, giving up four hits and three runs -- but the Twins still won the game.

There are a few Twins who I wouldn't mind seeing tumble towards baseball oblivion, but I always admired the way Radke took the mound.  I'd give him a Hall of Fame vote in five years, not because he's truly worthy, but because baseball could use more guys like him.

--------------

Also, Larry Sherry, the MVP of the 1959 World Series, has died at the age of 71. 

He definitely deserved the distinction, considering the insane usage:

Game	W	Sv	IP	H	R	BB	K
Game 2	0	1	3	3	1	0	1
Game 3	0	1	2	1	0	0	3
Game 4	1	0	2	0	0	1	0
Game 6	1	0	5.2	4	0	1	1
Total	2	2	12.2	8	1	2	5

Along with the workload, Sherry also had a nickname that wouldn't fly by today's standards.

(Why a) Backup catcher matters

Remember the climax in Mr. Holland's Opus? Well, this is kind of the same thing, except instead of American classical music, it involves White Sox backup catchers. And I don't have any kids, much less a son with a disability that robs him of being able to appreciate my work. And this site isn't shutting down, I'm just done with extended griping about catchers.

Now that I think about it, this isn't like Mr. Holland's Opus at all. 



The chart above represents the combined OPS of White Sox backup catchers since Kenny Williams took over GM duties in 2001.  As we already knew, it's taken a nosedive the past two years. 

What's worse is that depending on how you look at it, 2006 was the worst season for Sox reserve catchers in the 16-year existence of U.S. Cellular Field.  The only season that comes close was 1993, when Ron Schueler and Jerry Reinsdorf kept Carlton Fisk around long enough to break the games caught record, then gave him a motorcycle, a pink slip and an unofficial restraining order, in that order.

That year, Sox backups (Fisk, Mike LaValliere and Rick Wrona) combined to post a .512 OPS -- just three points worse than Sandy Alomar, Chris Widger and Chris Stewart posted in 2006.  But when factoring in that Alomar & Co. hit 40 points lower than the 1993 crew, I think it's safe to say that no Sox starter received less help than A.J. Pierzynski did in 2006.

You don't even need to look at OPS to prove that point -- just look at the plate appearances.  Sox backup catchers have combined for 309 plate appearances in the last two years.  To find two consecutive seasons in which reserves totaled less than 400 plate appearances, you have to bring the strike into it. 

This is why I kept banging the drum into the offseason regarding this spot that figures to get less playing time than any other.  And this is why I did the Backup Catcher Dance (imagine a flapper with an inner-ear problem) when I saw that the Sox signed Toby Hall early Sunday afternoon.

How bad was it in 2006?  Despite the miserable OPS, the Sox were far better off in 1993 because of LaValliere's presence.  Spanky had his faults -- slap hitter and slow as balls to name two -- but he also came to the Sox boasting a career .355 OBP, not to mention he was only 32 (two years younger than Widger in 2005).  Considering he'd never caught full-time and didn't have full mileage on his knees, the Sox could wager on a bounce-back season. 

Sure enough, in 1994, Spanky rebounded with a .281/.368/.331 line, and he and Ron Karkovice formed an effective if fairly fugly tandem behind the plate. 

Entering 2006, Williams didn't have anything close to a LaValliere on his hands.  Widger was excellent for the first half of 2005; he was awful for the second half, past his prime, and he'd already been out of baseball once before.  If a dolt like me could see warning signs, I don't see how it couldn't have registered on Williams' radar, and I was afraid that an opportunity to improve the situation would pass him by for a second straight year until Sunday.

Looking at who Williams deployed there for the first six years of his term, it seemed like Williams wasn't all that concerned with the role.  It's an interesting contrast to his previous boss.  Schueler had the opposite reputation of Williams -- he sat on his hands and waited for prospects that never developed.  Yet when it came to the second catcher, Schueler threw the kitchen sink at the problem.

Williams used seven different backups in six years (not counting emergency or September call-ups) -- Mark Johnson, Josh Paul, Miguel Olivo, Jamie Burke, Ben Davis, Alomar and Widger.  That might seem like enough if he didn't keep going back to Alomar, but since he's acquired the guy three different times, it's not like Williams exactly explored other opportunities.  While Alomar provided some fine offensive years in the past, he predictably aged his way into roving instructor material all the while.

Schueler chewed up and spat out catchers like sunflower seeds.  He had a Widger once  -- he was called Barry Lyons.  He returned to the big leagues at age 35, slugged .531 in 64 at-bats with the Sox in 1995, and the Sox cut him after the season.  He tried old guys (Tony Pena, Pat Borders, Charlie O'Brien), young guys (Johnson, Robert Machado), and guys in between (Chad Kreuter, Brook Fordyce).  Fordyce and Kreuter gave the Sox some serviceable years, but when the others fell flat, Schueler cut bait.

Williams had an apparent difference in ideology, which isn't always bad.  But if the Sox didn't change personnel going into Spring Training, I would've been in panic mode.  After all, Alomar is now three years past his "sell by" date, Stewart looked overwhelmed at the plate, Pierzynski struggled with the workload in the second half and turns 30 in two weeks, and the Sox will still have to face an enormous amount of left-handed pitching this year...

...for some reason, this Calvin and Hobbes strip came to mind.

Then look at the Twins and Tigers.  Joe Mauer won the batting title, and when he took days off, Mike Redmond filled in and hit .341 for the season.  Vance Wilson's OPS was only 20 points lower than Ivan Rodriguez's.  They may not be even in the Top 10 reasons why the Sox finished behind Detroit and Minnesota, but at the same time, I think there's a reason why Sandy Alomar's teams went 7-18 this year when he started.

That's why I think Hall is crucial to the success of next year's team.  In his worst season, he posted a .666 OPS -- sub-standard (and hellish), yes, but also 150 points better than Sox backups hit last year.  Plus, his starter numbers from years past include a vast majority of his at-bats against righties.  Over the last three years, Hall has posted a .770 OPS against lefties, .645 against righties. 

Considering he'll mostly be facing southpaws, I'd be surprised if he didn't clear a .700 OPS at season's end, which would raise the performance level of backup catchers back to 2000-01 standards, when the Sox were stacked back there.  That's when Schueler traded Fordyce -- who was hitting a fine .272/.313/.464 -- for Charles Johnson, who finished the season hitting .326/.411/.607.  Add in the best of Mark Johnson's career and an up-and-coming Josh Paul, and those were the Sox's glory days behind the plate since the mid-1980s version of Fisk.

After months of obsessing about this spot, I'm now immensely satisfied.  The Sox are better equipped to face lefties, A.J. won't have to handle everything himself, and the upgrade came at a minimal price -- only cash, and not that much of it.

Toby! How the Hall are ya? (updated)

White Sox sign Toby Hall to a two-year, $3.65 million deal



What surprised me most about this Toby Hall deal is not that the Sox were able to sign him, even though Kenny Williams had really given no indication that they were thinking about him (unlike the Phillies trade).  The only links to the Sox were provided by national media sources who saw the opening.

No, what surprised me most is that the Sox got him cheaper than the Cubs signed Henry Blanco.  Blanco signed a two-year deal with the North siders for $5 million, and the best you can say about Blanco is that he's as good as Hall.  That's if you give Blanco extra credit for defense and game-calling, because Hall is the superior hitter.  Hall is also three years younger.

Williams tipped to this signing during his conference call, saying, "It'll be considered a smaller move for the public, but we think that it'll be a big move internally; but more a peripheral kind of thing."

It's not peripheral to me, Kenny.

Next up:  Alexis Rios? 

With Vernon Wells staying put for $126 million over seven years, the Toronto Blue Jays now have an extra outfielder.  Rios could be expendable, and it's something to think about.  Rios is young (26), sound defensively all over the outfield, and he was on the verge of a true breakout season until a staph infection hampered him for about two months. 

The Jays need pitching, since they missed out on both Ted Lilly and Gil Meche.  I wouldn't feel comfortable giving up any of the starting five for him, but if they'd accept a prospect/project, a deal could be done.

If nothing else, he's worth a few Duran Duran jokes.

What might have been

The funny thing about Ross Gload's departure is that I still can't tell if he was the most expendable reserve on the roster, or the least expendable in terms of filling a hole.

On one hand, Rob Mackowiak is left-handed and can play first base and corner outfield positions.  Alex Cintron and Pablo Ozuna are faster.  Gload can't throw well because of his shoulder, so basically almost all his skills as a bench player are redundant.

On the other hand, I still can't grasp why the Sox didn't ditch Scott Podsednik and give Gload every opportunity to play an acceptable left field during Spring Training.  One of those fellas stopped hitting as the season went on and didn't compensate with the glove, and it wasn't Ross.

My feeling is that .300 hitters don't grow on trees, and that's what Gload was with Chicago.  With the Sox, he hit .308/.351/.447; take out the 2005 in which he was jerked around, even when his shoulder was healthy, and that line improves to .323/.366/.472.  It's understood that he posted those averages over less than a full season's worth of at-bats (390), but if a guy can maintain that while getting erratic playing time and pinch-hitting, I'm inclined to think it's fairly real.

All Gload showed us was that he could roll out of bed and spray line drives all over the field, whether against lefties or righties.

That's another thing!  While he has less than 100 at-bats against southpaws, Gload has shown he could hit them.  In 2004, Gload hit .425 (17-for-40) against lefties; in 2006, Gload hit .308 (12-for-39) with respectable extra-base power.  Considering Pods couldn't crack .300 slugging against lefties, it's another point for Ross.

Gload also went 6-for-6 stealing bases last year.  Pods, meanwhile, posted a career-low success rate on the basepaths (67 percent). 

The only advantages Podsednik had over Gload entering the offseason was his speed -- which he often misused, as noted above -- and his defense, which Pods self-described as "horseshit" during the season.  That said, it makes little sense to me why Gload wouldn't have the first crack at the starting left field job.  It's not like Pods is cheaper, because he'd cost $2 million more.

I wholly acknowledge that Gload could continue to be an abysmal outfielder, but two things gave me hope.  Carlos Lee improved to be almost average with the glove as he gained more experience, which indicates that it can be learned.  Also, Brian Anderson is great at going to his right, so it's not like Gload would have all that much ground to cover. 

It's entirely possible that I'm a little hung up on Gload -- as you might've been able to tell throughout the season, I admired his hitting quite a bit.  But had I the reins of the Sox organization, I would've been tempted to stick Gload in left when Tucson time rolled around, and try to sign a right-handed, lefty masher like Craig Wilson or Jon Knott as the backup first baseman who could also play outfield. 

It would've been risky, and it would've taken Ozzie Guillen out of his comfort zone by not having a track star to install at the top of the lineup.  However, I think any competent major-league manager could acknowledge that Gload not only got on base more (.354 OBP, compared to Pods' .330), but also made it to second without having to steal far more often.  In his semi-full seasons with the Sox, Gload averaged an extra-base hit once every 10.8 at-bats; Pods once every 15.9 ABs.

It's not right to lose sleep over Gload's absence.  He's 31 and has yet to play a full major-league season, and the Sox have Ross Gload Lite, Casey Rogowski, down in Charlotte. 

At the same time, the Sox still have only one and a half outfielders, and there are no indications that the situation will be improved before the sport starts up again in February.  I'm concerned that either the Sox will have to suffer through Podsednik once again, or make a wrong move in trying to replace him when a solution was in the organization all along.

Sisco kid, now a friend of ours (updated)

The Sox may have finally solidified their bullpen, acquiring Andrew Sisco from the Kansas City Royals for Ross Gload. 

There's a lot to like about Sisco, but it makes me just a little bit uncomfortable that the Sox are attempting to plug two holes in their staff with two pegs from the worst bullpen in the majors.  MacDougal worked out, but I'm wondering if trying a second guy is pressing our luck.

Over the last two years, we've seen the spectrum of what Sisco can do: pitch well or suck.  If Don Cooper can work some magic and Sisco posts his 2005 line (3.11 ERA, a strikeout every inning), everything will be gravy.  And because Gload makes no sense for the Royals, who have about two dozen younger guys and Mike Sweeney vying for the same roster spots, I don't see the Royals winning this trade no matter what happens. 

Still, this trade doesn't thrill me because I'm looking at Sisco's 2006 splits and thinking, "Good Lord -- he was way worse than Neal Cotts!" 

That's not to say I disagree with either trade, but I don't think Sisco is anywhere near a lock for the bullpen entering Spring Training.  There are actually a couple interesting parallels between Cotts and Sisco -- they're both lefties with only one dynamite season in the bank, and as it stands now, hitters have no trouble figuring them out.  They also each have one and a half pitches working for them.

But the differences between them work in Sisco's favor -- he's about seven inches taller and throws a 95 m.p.h. fastball, and considering that Cotts' control betrayed him, it's not like he's a marksman in comparison. 

So what I'm saying is that ultimately this is an upgrade for the Sox's second lefty position.  I'm just not doing backflips because I don't see Sisco showing us right away.  Plus, I'm somewhat saddened by Gload's departure, but that warrants an entire separate entry.

Maybe the most interesting thing about this deal is that if Sisco makes the team, the Sox bullpen will be just about as big as the Bulls' starting lineup.  If they ever played a pickup game, it'd be something like this:

	A. Sisco 6'10" 270	C	B. Wallace 6'9" 240 lbs.
	B. Jenks 6'4" 270 lbs.	PF	A. Nocioni 6'7" 225 lbs.
	M. Thornton 6'6" 235 lbs.	SF	L. Deng 6'9" 220 lbs.
	M. MacDougal 6'4" 185 lbs.	SG	K. Hinrich 6'3" 190 lbs.
	D. Aardsma 6'4" 205 lbs.	PG	C. Duhon 6'1" 185 lbs.

Average height/weight of starting fives:

• White Sox:  6-5 1/2", 235 lbs.
• Bulls: 6-5 1/2", 212 lbs.

And if Brandon McCarthy were still a reliever, the Sox would clearly be taller on average.  It's probably the only time we'd miss having him in the bullpen.

Unfortunately, I think Thorndog's the only one who could hold his own, and I don't think his Grand Valley State scholarship would hold any water against two Dukies, a Jayhawk and an Argentinian national team member.

Bobby Jenks would have to try to emulate Charles Barkley, because there's no way he could guard the perimeter.  Sisco would probably be barfing up tacos after the first four minutes with Ben Wallace beating him up. 

Filling in the blanks

In my list of 21 possible backup catchers, there were a number of guys who only had a cup of coffee in the big leagues last year.  That said, I had little to draw from when trying to assess their defensive capabilities, considering I had no stolen-base figures to work with.

Until now.

Jeff Sackmann, the man behind minorleaguesplits.com, published a piece at The Hardball Times with caught stealing rates for all notable minor-league catchers.  A number of them were on my list:

• Jeff Mathis:  34.4% (31/90)
• Jeff Clement:  27.6% (8/29)
• J.D. Closser:  35.3% (18/51)
• Robby Hammock:  30.4% (14/48)
  
• Guillermo Quiroz:  53.3% (16/30)
• Mike Rivera:  35.6% (16/45)
• Chad Moeller:  48.6% (17/35)

Meanwhile, it's heartwarming to know that our own Chris Stewart had the best caught-stealing rate in the minors of those who caught more than 500 innings.  Stewart threw out 52.7 percent of basestealers (39 of 74), and was third-best overall in both throwing out runners, and preventing them from taking off in the first place.

The only problem is, Stewart and Clement are the only guys on the list to not have a major-league hit to their name. 

At any rate, I should have a fairly comprehensive look at Sox backup catchers from the last two decades within the next day or two, which hopefully will mark the end of my lengthy diatribes about that particular roster spot. 

Minor griping and bitching is scheduled to continue indefinitely.

Mac the Fourth

In honor of his new four-year contract (if you count the team option), Mike MacDougal has become the fourth to be previewed in the 2007 edition of Meet the Sox. 

(And also because it was a slow news day, and I have to give you something.)

Blood types, Vernon Wells and holiday music

Sorry to those who tried visiting the site in the afternoon.  The server had some planned downtime and I forgot about putting up a notice.

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Why did Tadahito Iguchi have little trouble bringing his game from Japan to the States?  It could be in his blood.

The New York Times has an interesting article, even if it doesn't prove anything scientifically, on Japanese ballplayers.  Evidently, Iguchi shares the same blood type (Type O) as Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Matsui, Sadaharu Oh and Kei Igawa. 

Of course, Kaz Matsui, who helped to depress Iguchi's value for the Sox when he flopped with the Mets, is a Type O.  And Ichiro Suzuki is a Type B.  So it's not exactly a bulletproof hypothesis, even if the Japanese place a lot of importance on blood type.  That was something I didn't know, so, hey.

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The Toronto Blue Jays offered Vernon Wells a seven-year, $126 million contract, which he likely will sit on for a while.  Would you want the Sox to throw that type of money at him if he bypasses it for free agency and has another All-Star season in Toronto this year?  I could be persuaded either way at this point.

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Worst five holiday songs I've heard this year (not including novelty songs, meant to be annoying after one listen):

1. Wonderful Christmastime -- Paul McCartney
2. Last Christmas -- Wham!
3. Santa Claus is Coming to Town -- Bruce Springsteen
4. Feliz Navidad -- Any version
   
5. Christmas Rapping -- The Waitresses

Three possibly conspicuous omissions:

• Happy Christmas -- John Lennon.  I change the station as fast as I can when it comes on, but I do recognize it has some historical significance.  Melissa Etheridge's version can be flushed, though.
  
• The Christmas Shoes -- Newsong.  Only because I've managed to avoid it this year.  If you've never heard it, here are the lyrics.  It's perhaps the most pathetic attempt at commercial sympathy you'll ever witness.  I don't even think O.J. could top it.
  
• Anything done by Burl Ives.  I can't get mad at the guy who influenced the creation of Stinky Wizzleteats.
  

Dumpster diving (updated)

Here's what the big board looks like so far after the midnight non-tendering deadline, in terms of options that would only cost money:

Not available:

• Lavatory Orbiter, Colorado. 
  
• Dan O'Dowd: Tease.
  
• Humberto Cota, Pittsburgh. 
  
• Weird decision by Dave Littlefield (aren't they all?), as catcher is the one position at which the Pirates are stacked.  He'll still be blocked by two superior catchers.
  

Available:

• Toby Hall, Dodgers
• The No. 1 target in my 21 possible backup catchers list only costs money now.  Say, didn't we save $9 million and change by trading Freddy Garcia?  Say, might Hall be interested in only a one-year deal so he can test the catcher market again?  Say, why can't Kenny Williams make this happen?  Enough with the Alomars, already.
• Rod Barajas, FA
• The Rockies were rumored to have interest in his services, but Torrealba's presence negates that.  Barajas may have overplayed his hand this season, rejecting starter money in Toronto and not finding a lot of offers elsewhere.  He doesn't hit lefties much better than he hits righties, but he's better than A.J. defensively and not a zero with the bat. 
  

While we're at it:

• Jayson Werth, Dodgers
• Springfield native. He's right-handed, can play all three outfield positions, has plus speed, occasional pop.  He's also missed a boatload of time and hasn't been around long enough to show if he can hit lefties.
• Scott Schoeneweis, Reds
• He'd make a nice second lefty out of the bullpen.  Too bad he 1) bitched while with the Sox, and 2) is represented by Scott Boras.  So in other words, no way in hell.
• Jon Knott, Padres
• I'd never heard of him before today, but last year in Triple-A, the first baseman/outfielder Knott hit .331/.405/.646 against lefties.  We were just talking about Craig Wilson in the last post, and this guy appears to be a Craig Wilson that people like me haven't heard of.  An intriguing possibility should the Sox go in that direction -- which they likely won't.
  

Think happy thoughts

From Scott Merkin's mailbag:



My reaction.  But thanks for trying anyway, Dave.

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One reason I haven't gotten worked up at all about Rex Grossman's recent performances entering tonight is that I doubt it'll come down to him in the playoffs.  It's most likely that it's going to be up to the defense.

Last year, Grossman and the Bears offense did enough to win in their playoff loss against Carolina, but the defense couldn't figure out that Steve Smith was the Panthers' only legitimate threat.  Carolina went up early, and the defense never allowed Grossman and the rest of the offense to catch up.

Today, Rex looked good, and downright brilliant in the third quarter outside of a back-foot flare to Bernard Berrian that nearly was picked off.  Meanwhile, the defense looked unusually undisciplined.  Defensive linemen were overpursuing, the tackling wasn't crisp, and the penalties -- not just the random holds and illegal contact that occurs during the game, but they had trouble staying onsides, especially in situations that favored them.  A couple personal fouls (both blatant) didn't help matters either.

With the way Rex was stepping up and throwing the ball decisively, he could've succeeded against any team, but the Bears defense was lucky to be playing an offense as out of sorts of St. Louis'.  If Torry Holt hadn't had a case of the drops, it could've been a lot closer.

Other thoughts:

*Not one, but two successful screen passes?  I can't remember the last time I saw that.

*When Dante Hall had his season in the sun returning kicks, his name was bandied about as a possible MVP candidate.  Now LaDainian Tomlinson has that one locked up, but Devin Hester should be getting more noise as a Rookie of the Year candidate at the very least.

*Thomas Jones looked good.  The offense line looked great, not only with the running game, but it gave Grossman passing lanes as well.  It's just hard to get excited about it when the Rams' defense is so small.

*Go figure: Robbie Gould's first two real misses come in a dome.  In fact, if you were to bet that Gould and Jeff Wilkins would miss every kick they attempted, there was probably some money to be made.

Iguch-evaluation

Tadahito Iguchi's player preview is now up in the Meet the Sox section.  Don't forget to add your projections between now and the start of the season. 

Freddy eulogized

It wasn't until the All-Star break of 2006 that I realized how much of a competitor Freddy Garcia actually was.

He came to the White Sox in 2004 with the label of an underachiever.  He had a brilliant season in 2001, when the Mariners won 116 games, but he never came close to matching it.  Most figured Kenny Williams was mortgaging a chunk of the future on a middle-of-the-rotation starter when he traded Jeremy Reed, Miguel Olivo and Michael Morse for the big Venezuelan when he surprised everybody with a late June deal.

READ THE REST

Aluminum lining

Following up on yesterday's post about the Chicago media, here's one more from the Gary Post-Trib, from a guy I've never heard of, Mike Hutton.  The headline is "Williams has earned benef it [sic] of doubt," but you wouldn't know it from the column after the first two and a half graphs:


He ends where he starts, with a tentative thumbs-sideways, but in the middle is meandering, stream-of-consciousness prose that says Williams is unlikeable and Jerry Reinsdorf is cheap.  He also cites the David Wells trade as a "sour deal" even though at worst it was garbage in, garbage out, and writes a "they're" when he meant "their."  

Somehow, he still manages to write the most positive column in town.

Yesterday I compared the columnists and the bloggers, but you don't even need to leave the medium to notice a divide.  Look at what the beat writers are saying:

• Joe Cowley:  "You get it or you don't get it."
• Scot Gregor:  "Still, the trade looks pretty bad for the Sox right now."
• Nathaniel Whalen:  "I think this trade had to happen."

(I couldn't draw a bead on Mark Gonzalez's viewpoint one way or another.  Make sure to check out Whalen's entry -- it's rather scathing.)

Two out of three beat writers agree, and even Gregor's commentary vouched for "wait and see."  So what does it say when the guys who are with the team every day say one thing, and the more distant parties are saying another?  I have three guesses:

1. Columnists don't have to worry as much about pissing off the people they cover; the writers are being over-accommodating.
   
2. The beat writers have a better sense of how the organization is operating, and columnists are making wrong assumptions.
3. The columnists aren't saying what they think, instead opting to "start a conversation."

I'm trying to make sure to be fair to the columnists because I don't particularly care that they share an opposing viewpoint.  Instead, I'm more curious as to why each "voice" who opined on a very complicated deal came to the exact same conclusion.  I'm seeing about a 50/50 split on message boards about the trade, and both sides' viewpoints are easy to understand, so I don't get how each columnist saw it only one way.  I suppose Reinsdorf does make a very tempting pinata for numerous reasons.

The best piece I've seen on this was from ESPN.com's Jayson Stark; a very balanced, bittersweet, and -- most importantly -- mellow look at the deal using exclusive quotes from Williams (or at least ones I haven't seen anywhere else).

At any rate, I'm probably indulging myself more than most of you with this media stuff, but this might be the end of it for now.  The Garcia trade -- and the subsequent Astros rumors -- have me in a bit of a holding pattern, especially since Houston owner Drayton McLane said he's "not going to give up" on dealing with the White Sox after the departure of Andy Pettitte. 

The talking wounded

I'll tell you what I find to be the strangest thing about this whole Freddy Garcia trade.

The mainstream media, stocked by people who consider themselves impartial and above it all, are more up in arms about the Freddy Garcia trade than their counterparts in the White Sox blog world. 

The Cheat at South Side Sox has already dissected the Chicago Tribune's arguments, provided by Rick Morrissey and Phil Rogers, thoroughly enough so I don't have to.  But it's not just the Cubs' owner kicking the team -- the Sun-Times and the Daily Southtown got their shots in, too.

The argument can be summed up in four words:

The Sox are cheap.

With that thesis, many bring up Joe and Jane Commonfan as the true victims of the Sox's unwillingness to spend.  After all, Kenny Williams and Jerry Reinsdorf said fans would have to show up if they were going to invest more into personnel.  The fans came out in droves, and now the front office is driving them away again.

Speaking only for myself, I'm not offended at all, and I have the grounds to be.  I'm a Sox fan.  I drive several hours to see them play when they're in the area, spend money on tickets and lodging, buy food at the games, purchase merchandise here and there.  Hell, I spend both time and money to write about them.

But it isn't just me.  Look at the other blogs on the Garcia trade:

• South Side Sox:  "Lateral move with potential."
• ChiSoxBlog:  "The Sox are still in a good position."
• Foul Balls:  "Apparently, it's a liquidation sale."
• The Bard's Room:  "I guess I just hoped for more."
• Black Sox Blog:  "This is a solid deal."
• The White Sox Guy:  "In retrospect ... I'm not so upset."

It's a pretty healthy mix of opinions.  Certainly, the trade didn't spark dancing in the streets, but the overarching feeling is that it isn't a harmful move if it's setting up wise spending.  One could pry deeper on message boards, but the signal-to-noise ratio isn't so consistent.

So why the divide?  Maybe it's because Morrissey, Couch & Co. get paid to see them play, and probably get sick of them because of various professional dealings.  Maybe it's because of the new instinct for Sox fans (including bloggers) to trust Kenny, sometimes more than they should.  Maybe the culture of the 24-hour, over-saturated sports media makes knee-jerk reactions the status quo to the point where reticence is bold. 

Maybe one side has their heads up their asses.  Maybe both of them do. 

Money well spent

Hooray!  A pitcher who can/will/must accept a three-year deal!

The Sox and Mike MacDougal agreed to a three-year, $6.45 million contract with a club option for the fourth year, and given the way lesser relievers are getting paid, I don't see any complaints about this deal.  

MacDougal has his health issues, but we've seen what he can do when even 90 percent on his game.  When giving money to relievers, I'd rather invest in a dynamic if hazardous arm than a generic arm who could luck into a 2.00 ERA, but could stumble north of five as well.  As the latter's title and talent would suggest, you can find those guys anywhere.

Just nobody tell the Cleveland Indians that.

Lavatory Orbiter 2: Backup Boogaloo

Never ... NEVER ... give up on your dreams.  From the Denver Post, per Rotoworld: 

Make that 21 possible backup catchers.

Swan (& Dolphin) song

Odds 'n' ends from the last day of winter meetings...

This article by the Tribune's Mark Gonzalez is all over the place.  First off, tenses seem to be an issue -- he goes from past to present in the fourth graph, which is likely a copy editing error.  It gets hazier shortly after that, where he quotes Reinsdorf axing the rumored deal with Houston involving Jon Garland for Wily Taveras and Taylor Buchholz, only to carry on like the Sox are still considering it in the next graph. 

This was also a weird sentence:


I guess this is in reference to Mark Buehrle?  It's not made clear, and if you're not thinking about Buehrle and his Cardinals fixation, it sounds completely random.  Like if somebody were writing a story about Williams' lunch plans:


The obvious reason is that Kenny just doesn't like chicken caesar wraps, but because it's so boldly stated, I'd start to wonder if he got food poisoning from bad lettuce recently.  So maybe he isn't ruling out St. Louis because of the Buehrle connection, but because the people there are way too fixated on where they went to high school.

Anyway, by the end of this article, I'm starting to be convinced that this Web version is garbled.  First, there's this set of graphs:


One, who's going through the growing pains?  Two, there's no proper first reference to Gavin Floyd -- even earlier in the story, he just says "Floyd."  But that's not all -- at the end, it wraps up thusly:


Where the hell did that come from?  Did somebody post unedited copy?   It wouldn't be the first time cloaked-out text made its way online (I know this from first-hand experience).  Anyway, pressing forward:

Did anybody here actually believe the Houston rumors for a second?  Some sources were claiming the deal fell through only because Buchholz failed his physical, but this deal made no sense for the Sox from the beginning. 

Taveras is another Scott Podsednik, and it sounds like Pods isn't going anywhere (gag), according to Joe Cowley.  Buchholz's track record is worse than Gavin Floyd's, and Jon Garland is worth more than Freddy Garcia since he's younger and boasts a better contract status.

Of course, maybe Hawk Harrelson would've done it if he were GM again, because he sang Buchholz's praises when he started against the Sox.  Like anybody who faces the Sox for the first time, Buchholz shut the Sox down through six before Chad Qualls came in and gave up a first-pitch grand slam to Joe Crede to spoil the effort. 

Only when Jason Hirsh started to enter the discussion did I think this deal could possibly have some legs.  I'm guessing the conversation between Williams and Astros GM Tim Purpura went something like this:

Purpura:  How about Buchholz and Taveras for Garland?
Williams:  Throw in Hirsh and we'll talk.
Purpura:  Nah.

I'd be all for Hirsh, since he was a Tri-City ValleyCat.  Gotta represent up in the New York-Penn League, yo.

Bitchin' new band name:  Chet Lemon's Bluetooth.

Now you know why I'm so concerned about the influence of My Boys.  More from Kenny:


"...you know, with the blonde chick with whom one of you are likely involved semi-romantically, and the whipped guy, and the other whipped guy, and the womanizer, who evidently are available to hang out at all hours of the day despite doing pretty well for themselves financially."

(Because I promised, notes from last week's My Boys:  There were really no incorrect journalism references, aside from the fact that she never works.  The two episodes covered at least four weeks, and she didn't work once!  They were in a bar, and she points to the TV to show a great play Greg Maddux made.  Why wasn't she covering that game?  Only until late in the second episode did she even mention that she had a game to cover -- but not that night.  Just later that week.  Right in the middle of baseball season