When we look back at the 2006-07 offseason, the Angels'
reported signing of Gary Matthews Jr. may be a watershed moment in baseball economics.
Quick summary: Matthews, 32, was DFA'd by three different teams, then goes on to have a career year with the Texas Rangers in a very hitter-friendly ballpark. It's only the third time in his eight-year career that he played 130 games or more, and it's the first time where he's had an above-average season. Along the way, he makes a couple of amazing catches, which gives him the reputation of being a world-class defensive player, which isn't true. He decides to test free agency, and in doing so
receives a 5-year, $50 million contract from the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.
The Alfonso Soriano deal gave me pause, but at least he was the best player in the market. I laughed at Juan Pierre's
five-year, $44 million deal, but he's had the advantages of four 200-hit seasons and an average of 50+ steals over the last six years. He has a track record, even if it might be on the superficial side.
Matthews is a whole different case, and I can see it meaning one of two things in hindsight down the road:
- It's one of those "high tide" deals, like Mike Hampton's eight-year, $121 million deal five years ago. They scare the bejeezus out of everybody, and nobody comes close to approaching that level the following season.
- It represents a whole new era of baseball, and we have to completely recalibrate our idea of "fair value."
At least we knew there was
no way Kenny Williams would make a play for Matthews. That much was certain.
All I know now is that a deal for somebody like Coco Crisp or Carl Crawford makes a whole lot more sense than it did a couple weeks ago.
Williams has done a tremendous job of insulating himself from the rigors of the open market thus far. Paul Konerko's five-year, $60 million deal was an exception that suddenly doesn't look that steep, and the Javier Vazquez-for-Chris Young trade is starting to creep away from "going overboard" in the direction of "shrewd," though Vazquez has to definitely step up to help his boss out.
Jermaine Dye's uncertain status is going to be another test of Williams' resourcefulness, and he could at least cushion that blow by acquiring a mid-grade outfielder while they're still cheap money-wise. Here are three possibities along with Matthews' line -- match them with their dollar values by their stat lines, combining their fullest seasons and averaging them by 150 games. Contracts are from 2007 on, with all incentives met.
Player
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
HR
|
SB
|
BB
|
K |
ZR |
Contract |
W
|
.285
|
.326
|
.425
|
14
|
22
|
31
|
111 |
.876
|
1) 5 yrs. $50 million
|
X
|
.299
|
.345
|
.456
|
16
|
18
|
42
|
79
|
.907
|
2) 5 yrs. $26 million
|
Y
|
.266
|
.338
|
.425
|
15
|
10
|
55
|
103 |
.874 |
3) 4 yrs. $28 million
|
Z
|
.296
|
.330
|
.440
|
12
|
54
|
31
|
87 |
.902
|
4) 3 yrs. $15 million |
Here are the answers:
Player W: Rocco Baldelli, 5 yrs. $26 million. Will be 25 next season.
Player X: Coco Crisp, 3 yrs. $15 million. Will be 27 next season.
Player Y: Gary Matthews Jr., 5 yrs. $50 million. Will be 32 next season.
Player Z: Carl Crawford, 4 yrs. $28 million. Will be 25 next season.
Either Matthews' contract is utterly ridiculous, or the other three's contracts are dadgum bargains. My perspective is that even if the market accelerates at the same rate, Matthews will still be greatly overpaid in relation to his abilities, especially considering he's past his prime.
The other three aren't sure shots by any means -- Baldelli and Crisp have battled injuries, and neither they nor Crawford are even average at working the count, and of course there is the general peril of inexperience. Still, those dollar values attached to their names are the maximum they can make -- if they underperform or get hurt, they'll receive less than listed.
It's been said Tampa's asking price is rising with each contract signed, but I haven't heard anything about Crisp. If the rumors of the Red Sox courting J.D. Drew are substantiated, though, Boston's outfield will be getting awful crowded.
Any of these guys figure to cost a significant amount of talent in return, but the skills of a Crisp, Crawford or Baldelli on display during the season are almost overshadowed by the comfort their long-term deals bring in the offseason. With two pitchers' contracts expiring and a gigantic void in the outfield after 2007, Kenny's going to have to go in one direction or the other.
I guess this is why general managers make the big bucks.