Sunday, November 19, 2006 - Posts

Notes from the Bill James Handbook

I went to Cooperstown this morning hoping to see the Comiskey Park walk-through in their virtual stadium tour exhibit, but it still isn't ready yet.  The only park available right now is Boston's South End Grounds.  I'll get some video of it when it's up.
 
But I did pick up a 1962 Nellie Fox Topps card for $4 -- the corners are slightly worn, but that's not a concern of mine. 

I also purchased The Bill James 2007 Handbook.  I've only spent about 30 minutes looking through it, which is not nearly enough to understand all the methodology and absorb everything.  So far, I like what I'm seeing.  There are 2007 projections which will be interesting to compare to ZIPS, but I haven't gotten through that part yet.

I've only thumbed through it a little bit, but here are some interesting Sox notes:

Offense:
  • A.J. Pierzynski ranked as the fourth-best bad-ball hitter in the AL; Tadahito Iguchi as the second-worst.
  • Not surprisingly, Pierzynski had the second-highest rate of first pitch swings; Scott Podsednik swung at fewer first pitches than Frank Thomas.
  • Jim Thome had the fifth-highest whiff rate when swinging -- but he had the fifth-lowest GIDP rate in the AL.
Pitching:
  • Mark Buehrle led the league in pickoffs with 10; Freddy Garcia allowed 40 stolen bases, 16 more than the next-highest total (24 by Tim Wakefield, who throws a friggin' knuckleball).
  • Bobby Jenks ranked second-best in the AL by only allowing 16.7 percent of inherited runners to score.
  • Buehrle had the third-slowest fastball in the AL, only behind Mark Redman and Kenny Rogers.
  • Buehrle and Garcia threw the least fastballs in terms of percentage; Jon Garland threw the fourth-most.
Defense:
  • Joe Crede was the second-most valuable third baseman behind Adrian Beltre in the Fielding Bible Awards...
  • ...On the other hand, Juan Uribe was tied for 14th in the voting for shortstops.  According to the Plus/Minus system, Uribe didn't finish in the top 10.
  • As we might've thought, Uribe and Iguchi weren't as strong in turning two this year.  However, Crede was only behind Eric Chavez in executing double plays he was involved in.
Baserunning:
  • Scott Podsednik was the 15th best baserunner in the majors last year, in terms of ability to take the extra base while not getting thrown out.  Possible replacement Chone Figgins ranked No. 1.
  • Joe Crede, Jermaine Dye and Paul Konerko rated as the 11th-, 17th- and 24th-worst baserunners in the majors, respectively. 
  • While Konerko scored -14 on the baserunner rating, his Molasses Mates, Jim Thome and A.J. Pierzynski, rated only -7 and -3.  So the other three must really be doing something special.
  • Of the Sox regulars or semi-regulars, only Podsednik, Alex Cintron, Pablo Ozuna and Tadahito Iguchi  ranked positive in the baserunning category.  Brian Anderson finished at 0.  Most surprising to me was Ross Gload's -9.
Miscellaneous:
  • Ozzie Guillen pinch-hits more than any other American League manager.
  • Guillen has the slowest hook in baseball.
  • Guillen used only 87 different lineups in 2006, compared to 112 in 2005 and 134 in 2004. 
  • U.S. Cellular ranked as the best home run park in the American League, and third overall.   However, it was the top home run park for left-handed hitters.  It does depress doubles and triples, but has little effect on batting average.
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Two games in New York, two wins for the Bears.  They've already crushed the Bills, so if they win next week against New England in Foxboro, I'll have secured bragging rights for the entire damn region.

The Bears had the perfect game plan against the Jets.  Like the Bears, they're great at playing with the lead, so it was more important to not give away any points than it was to score them.  They did enough of both, and now they're 9-1 and can clinch the NFC North next week with a win against the Patriots and Green Bay and Minnesota losses.

Considering Donovan McNabb's out for the season, half the Giants are on injured reserve and the Seahawks are kinda floundering, the Bears have to be the odds-on favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, for better or for worse.  The Bears haven't dealt well with the hype in their last two playoff appearances.  At least R.W. McQuarters won't be rapping this time around.