posted on Thursday, September 28, 2006 12:38 AM by Jim

Brandon McCarthy: He's ready

When the season's over, Brandon McCarthy's final numbers aren't going to look great -- though they'll look a little better thanks to his excellent start tonight. 

Barring any final work in the Minnesota series, here's what his 2006 will looks like:

W-L
IP
H
ER
HR
BB
K
ERA
WHIP
4-7
84.2
77
44
17
33
69
4.68
1.30

It's not necessarily a terrible line, but it wouldn't bowl anybody over -- especially when weighing it to try to decide whom McCarthy should replace in a Sox rotation with five proven starters.

On the other hand, I've gone through his game log to separate outings in which he recorded four or more outs, and sized them up against ones where he recorded zero to three. 

This isn't perfectly scientific, but I figure it's a quick-and-dirty way to determine which outings resembled something like a start for Brandon, to separate them from ones where Brandon may start his outing pitching from the stretch, or in a situation where one swing can decide the game. 

Here's what his numbers look like then:

Outs
IP
H
ER
HR
BB
K
ERA
WHIP
0-3
19.2
33
25
8
16
17
11.44
2.49
4+
65
44
19
9
17
52
2.63
0.94

I still could be wrong, because I had to tally these up by hand.  But I've thrice gone over the 26 outings where he's recorded four or more outs, and I've subtracted those numbers from his season total to get the stats from the 27 outings in which he recorded three outs or fewer.  If somebody wants to independently verify these numbers, by all means do.

If these numbers are true, then that split is far greater than I imagined.  That's not to say he'll post a sub-3.00 ERA as a starter, but the numbers -- and eyes -- say he throws a far different game when he knows he's in it for the long(ish) haul. 

Give the man a rotation spot next year.  And Charlie Haeger may not be far behind.

Update:  So, I took the 20 outings in which McCarthy pitched two innings or more, and removed the first three batters from the equation.  After completing a first inning of work (and every outing but two had a scoreless first inning), he gave up only 11 earned runs in 37 1/3 innings -- or a 2.65 ERA. 

Comments

# re: Brandon McCarthy: He's ready

Thursday, September 28, 2006 2:21 PM by Gregory Pratt
Give the man a rotation spot because we don't have NY's money to spend. On the merits, he'll never be better than our other five.

Hell, I like the thought of giving Thornton a rotation spot better than I like McCarthy. Thornton is colored in the same way Randy Johnson is.

# re: Brandon McCarthy: He's ready

Thursday, September 28, 2006 5:59 PM by The Cheat
I think to be fair, you'd have to move the first-three-outs from every extended outing to the 3-or-fewer outs column.

As it is, you're amplifying the difference because Ozzie isn't going to leave an ineffective reliever in the game for 4+ outs. Just because McCarthy's poor outings just happen to be 3 outs or fewer, doesn't necessarily mean that leaving him in for longer would have yielded much different results.

# re: Brandon McCarthy: He's ready

Thursday, September 28, 2006 8:50 PM by Jim Margalus
Certainly there's that factor, Cheat. Like I said, this is merely a rough measurement of outings where he wasn't the last line of defense, so to speak.

The 0-3 outs thing may not mean a lot. But my thinking on the 4+ outs line is that Ozzie wouldn't yank him after a rough first inning -- otherwise, Freddy Garcia would've pitched about 50 innings in 2005. When he does get the chance to continue throwing after a first inning of work, he's succeeded, by and large.

# re: Brandon McCarthy: He's ready

Thursday, September 28, 2006 9:25 PM by Jim Margalus
"Give the man a rotation spot because we don't have NY's money to spend. On the merits, he'll never be better than our other five."

Total of wins in the last two years:

Garland: 35
Garcia: 30
Contreras: 28
Buehrle: 28
Vazquez: 22

A large section of Sox fans wanted Garland gone before the 2005 season, and yet he's arguably been the most consistent starter, in terms of performance and health, in the last two years.

McCarthy's off to a better start than Garland was, so it's pretty foolish to say that McCarthy will never be better than anybody because he's had a rough time in a role he's not used to.

# re: Brandon McCarthy: He's ready

Thursday, September 28, 2006 11:09 PM by Gregory Pratt
I'm not criticizing Brandon because he's sucked out of the pen, although he's been miserable. I'm critical of Brandon because I've never been too impressed with him. He just doesn't have the stuff or the mental makeup, IMO. We'll see.

# re: Brandon McCarthy: He's ready

Friday, September 29, 2006 1:36 AM by Jim Margalus
We certainly will. They were saying the same things about Garland. Maybe it's a California thing.