Sox Machine: Chicago White Sox blog

September to dismember

So, here we are in the final month of the season with the Sox still in the playoff picture by the narrowest of margins -- a half-game over the Twins to be exact.  It's clobberin' time. 

Ozzie Guillen has spent much of the year keeping his reserves in and out of the lineup with a steady rotation.  That's all well and good, but with only 29 games left, he has to put his best foot forward each and every time.  If I had my druthers, here's how I would deploy the bench:

Rob Mackowiak:  He should start for Scott Podsednik ASAP, meaning at the sight of the first righty.  Pods has been terrible as of late, batting only .230 since the All-Star break in 139 at-bats.  He's currently in an 0-for-11 rut with five strikeouts.  Mackowiak, on the other hand, is batting .299 with an OBP of .375 -- 40 points higher than Pods in each category, and he plays a better left field to boot.  He should be starting for the forseeable future.

Alex Cintron:  He can play up to twice a week -- once for Juan Uribe against a tough righty, once for Tadahito Iguchi against a lefty.  He lacks Uribe's quarterbacking abilities in the field, and the Sox need to stress run prevention above all else.

Pablo Ozuna:  I don't mind him as the left fielder against lefties, although not in defensive-minded games.  He's rebounded from an abysmal July and early August and is 9-for-26 in the last two weeks, and his defense isn't much worse than Pods.  I'd like to see him get more reps at second, as he's hitting lefties better than either Cintron or Iguchi.

Ross Gload:  If Thome's hurt, then obviously his spot is pretty much determined.  If Mackowiak goes into one of his slumps, Gload would also be a decent alternative for Pods.  Did you know he's batting .348 since June?  That means Pods is the fourth most productive left field option the Sox have....and yet he's starting every day.  That can't continue.

Sandy Alomar Jr:  Oh, he's still here?  He's the only guy on the bench that needs to play, unfortunately.  Since joining the Sox, he's 4-for-24, although one of those hits was a homer and thus boosts his OPS.  That and a half-run on his catcher's ERA is the only improvement over Chris Widger.  But he's going to have to relieve A.J. Pierzynski every once in awhile, so start him against the occasional lefty -- but not if Mark Buehrle's on the mound. 

Buehrle's best starts have come with A.J. constantly setting up inside, and given the inconsistency of the rest of the staff, we need every ounce of his talent.  Buehrle's, I mean.  Alomar doesn't have much talent left.

Stopper Jon, M.D.

I know win-loss records tend to be overrated, but Jon Garland's record is the prettiest I can remember for a Sox pitcher in recent history.  A win tonight bumped him up to 16-4, or an .800 winning percentage.

People will pooh-pooh it because of his 4.47 ERA, but he's earned 10 of his last 11 wins.  The only victory that the Sox offense truly earned for him was on July 29 against Baltimore, when he barely made it through five battling the flu, and he earned 13 runs of support.  He's had nine quality starts during that stretch, and while he didn't earn one tonight, he rallied back from an early 3-0 hole to keep the team in the game.

Garland leads all major-league pitchers with 34 victories since the start of 2005, against only 14 losses during that stretch.  And while "knowing how to win" is somewhat silly talk for "makes games closer than they have to be," there is something to that record, especially since he had been immaculately average the last three years (36-36 record, 12 wins in all three seasons, ERA+ of 100, 99 and 100).  

That's why I'm not too worried about Brandon McCarthy at this point -- and early in his career, Jon never had a stretch like Brandon did during the second half of 2005.  They're both similar pitchers in that they're tall righties without overpowering fastballs, and they both started big-league games at unsually young ages -- 20 for Garland, 21 for McCarthy.  They both managed to keep low hit rates, but were ultimately hindered by the long ball.  Garland gave up an increasing amount of homers from 2002 to 2004 that made fans feel he wouldn't match his hype.  He had his health, but that was it.

When Garland stopped nibbling and started using his two-seamer as an out pitch, he cut his walk rate and half and his ERA followed.  That might be Brandon's next step.  He has better off-speed stuff than Garland, with a big curve and a change that was more polished than Garland's at his age, but his fastball, while fast enough, is fairly straight.  If he can learn to add and subtract like Garland now does, we could see his career take off in similar fashion. 

Playoff or lay off?

So, we all know Neal Cotts has been terrible.  Another abysmal outing, in which he faced three batters and allowed two of them to score, has boosted his ERA to 4.32.  Like Cliff Politte shortly before he was DFA'd, Neal helped to turn an easy victory into a semi-nailbiter.  At least Politte worked a scoreless inning before converting a six-run game into a save situation.

Cotts' August ERA is 11.47, but here are some scarier numbers:

• Only 7 IP in 10 appearances
• His WHIP > π
• He's facing an average of six batters an inning
• His BB/K ratio is 1:1
  

And then there's his problem against lefties. 

Cotts can be relegated to back-of-the-bullpen duties after September 1 when the roster expands to 40.  That isn't an issue.  But, should it come into play (and it's probably less than 50 percent likely that it will), there's an interesting decision to be made about the playoff roster.

If Cotts is demoted before Sept. 1, then whoever replaces him can take his spot on the playoff roster -- he can then be called up in September, but he will be ineligible.  If the Sox don't move him, then he's on the playoff roster by default unless he gets injured -- or "injured," wink wink, nudge nudge.

So the question is -- would you want him on your playoff roster?

It's an easy question to answer if your answer is in terms of "What have you done for me lately?"  On the other hand, his ERA was under 3.00 before the All-Star Break. 

On the other, other hand, Cotts has been struggling for more than a month, and I've yet to hear possible explanation for his struggles aside, only a recapping of the results ("I'm just not hitting my spots").  But on the fourth hand, I haven't heard anything about him being hurt, and his velocity seems the same.

It's not an easy decision, but considering Cotts only has two pitches -- neither of them knee-buckling -- I'm looking at other October options, even if postseason plans are nowhere near certain.

A season to Dye for

Throughout this up-and-down season, there’s been one man on this team who has been a constant source of joy, and his name is Jermaine Dye.  He has been absolutely electric, and he doesn't even need to change his facial expression to generate that excitement.

It’s going to be tough for him to win the American League Most Valuable Player award, but the fanboy in me says that he should be leading the pack.  The opposition can throw all the numbers it wants at me, but like Justice Potter Stewart said about pornography, “I know it when I see it.”

To be more precise, I know it because there hasn’t been a stretch where I haven’t seen it.  Jermaine entered this season with the reputation of being a streaky hitter, and we saw that trait a moderate amount in 2005, where he'd alternate between hot and cold weeks.  In 2006, that guy has disappeared.  He’s hit at least six homers in every month, and look at what he’s done month to month in terms of OPS:

Month	OPS
April	1.046
May	1.035
June	.950
July	1.101
August	1.076

And the 1.000+ OPS don't just show up in the monthly splits -- he's also cleared that watermark both home and away, against both lefties and righties, day and night, turf and grass, and with the bases empty and runners in scoring position.  His splits page moves me to tears, it's so beautiful.

Ever since that rotten April in 2005, he’s been the biggest bargain in baseball (only $5 million this year).  He’s only gotten better, too.  I went through his game logs to see what kind of seasons he’s had over the last calendar year twice each month, and look at these numbers:

Time frame	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI
Aug. 26	.324	.390	.647	47	124
Aug. 11	.314	.379	.608	40	113
July 26	.306	.374	.583	38	105
July 11	.300	.369	.575	37	109
June 26	.287	.363	.556	36	105
June 11	.290	.367	.581	40	105
May 26	.295	.370	.553	34	101
May 11	.297	.366	.556	33	95

And he isn’t just posting big numbers – he’s posting big hits as well.  The two-strike, two-run monster shot off Joe Nathan on Saturday was just the last of a slew of clutch moments.  A quick scan of State of the Sox shows the following big-time performances in close and late situations (.309/.361/.636 on the season):

• Aug. 26: Game-tying ninth-inning homer vs. Twins
  
• Aug. 8: Game-winning single vs. Yankees
• July 30: Go-ahead homer vs. Orioles
  
• July 9: Game-tying ninth-inning homer vs. Red Sox
• June 9: Game-winning single vs. Indians
  

But he's also done exemplary work in the first six innings that have provided leads or helped make up deficits.  There have been a couple games in which he's been the entire offense.

Nevertheless, it's going to be a difficult climb for Dye, because he's against the likes of Derek Jeter, Joe Mauer, David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, Travis Hafner and Justin Morneau. 

In that group, you have guys with positional advantages, nicknames (I suggested The Assassin for Dye, but it obviously didn't catch on), and they're fixtures in their respective locations.  All the other contenders have been in their current cities for longer, so Jermaine hasn't earned himself "face of the franchise" status yet.  Add those factors together, and he's going to trail the pack in laudations, even if he's leading the league in slugging.

For a reminder of what Dye is up against, remember what kind of stuff Jeter gets credit for, such as Tim Kurkjian's ridiculous servicing of the Yankee shortstop last year:

"Jeter has a nice face, a rugged face, a handsome face, equal parts black and white, the son of a black father and white mother who had simple rules for him in high school, including being home by 10 p.m. every night and eating his lunch every day. He was taught well, and he has never forgotten his lessons. That's why he is such a good player and team captain. That's why he is the face of baseball."

See?  Even if Dye ate his lunch every day, took his vitamins, stayed in drugs, drank his school and didn't do milk, he'd still have that damn scar! 

The guy just can't win, though from everything he's shown us, personal achievements don't seem to register on his radar.  Still, I'd love to see Jermaine win it, because that award will do more talking than he'll ever do for himself.

Phil Arvia to the rescue

When discussing the divide between the media and the blogosphere, I can't think of a single greater disconnect in terms of noise than Brian Anderson vs. Rob Mackowiak.  Every White Sox blog I read has criticized Ozzie Guillen for his misuse of Mackowiak in a role he's clearly not equipped to handle, and stumps for Anderson to play center everyday.  However, the mainstream media only mentions Mackowiak's errors as isolated occurrences without bringing together the big picture.

As far as I can tell, the Daily Southtown's Phil Arvia has fired the first comprehensive shot in this battle with his column that ran in the morning paper.  It's probably the best Sox-related column I've read all year -- he hits all the points we Sox fans have pounded Ozzie with on this space and all the others -- and the copy editor wrote the perfect headline for it.

Not so much Saturday, and you can put it on Guillen for ignoring the most fundamental of fundamentals — defense. The Twins and the Sox are tied with Seattle for the second-best fielding percentage in the American League, and with Jose Contreras and Johan Santana squaring off, it might have been reasonable to assume this would be a low-scoring contest in which gloves would figure more prominently than bats.

So what was Rob Mackowiak — a fine utilityman and pinch hitter, but no Jim Edmonds — doing in center field?

Yeeeeeep.  The only issue with the column is his mug shot that accompanies it, unless he's intentionally going for the John Flansburgh thing.  At least Anderson started today's game, though I'm afraid it's because it was due less to Mack's "defense" and more because it was a day game following a night game.  Anderson's been deployed like a backup catcher in every other respect.

McCarthyism

Ozzie Guillen is really starting to piss me off.  Not only with the ridiculous mistreatment of Brian Anderson, who didn't start again tonight even though a lefty was on the mound.  I'm branching out in my Ozzie anger.

It's awfully interesting how after hearing that Brandon McCarthy can't step into a starter's role, both because he's not good enough and not "stretched out" enough to throw starter-quality innings, he goes and throws 5 1/3 innings of one-hit ball in relief of Jose Contreras.

You know how many innings Javier Vazquez threw yesterday?  Five and two-thirds.  How many did Freddy Garcia throw in his last start?  Five and one-third.  Mark Buehrle in his last start?  Five and one-third. 

But wait -- that's how many McCarthy threw tonight!  Without a highly regimented pre-game warmup routine!  That can't be possible!

I'm not saying McCarthy is the answer, because given the way he's surrendered homers, he's as capable of implosion as anybody.  The only hit he gave up tonight was a homer to Torii Hunter, which makes 12 gopher balls in 70 2/3 innings.

But here's something that's not often mentioned about Brandon -- he's allowing fewer baserunners than any other pitcher on the Sox staff.  That's not the rotation -- that's the staff.  He lowered his WHIP to 1.16, and he's the only guy on the 11-man staff with one under 1.20. 

Freddy's allowing hits, homers, and any walk to turn into a double, Buehrle's lucky to crack 85 on the gun, Contreras is struggling to locate any of his pitches, and Vazquez can't get through the sixth inning -- and yet McCarthy is not an option under any circumstances?

Tonight, McCarthy proved Ozzie flat-out wrong, and Ozzie's going to have to reward him at some point, unless he's aching to lose more credibility.

Looking back at 2005, there may have been no bigger blessing than El Duque's DL stints.  While Orlando Hernandez tended to his ailing arm, Black Mac went 3-1 in five post-break starts and had a 1.69 ERA in seven outings.  He won two starts during a stretch when the Sox went 14-18 and watched their AL Central lead drop precipitously, and you can't overstate that contribution.

But what if El Duque kept pitching?  What if he kept going out every five days for the baserunner fiestas he called starts, to throw 100 pitches in five innings?  Would Ozzie have the guts or mind to replace him with a rookie who was hammered in his first stint?  Before the 2006 All-Star break, I would've said "yes."  Now, I'm leaning towards the opposite. 

One of Ozzie's greatest attributes in 2005 was his ability to blend rookies in seamlessly.  He trusted Tadahito Iguchi (a rookie, even though) through a rough spring, plugged Bobby Jenks into important situations right away, and let McCarthy have a second chance after getting rocked the first time around.

This year, it's his greatest flaw, and he's pissed away many potential victories by holding McCarthy and Anderson back.  With the Sox now one and a half games back, with McCarthy proving his mettle, and Mackowiak proving his helplessness in center, Ozzie has zero reasons to stay the course.  It's just too bad that there's no indication that he's going to change his mind.

You make the call

Well, we can't vote on the Gold Glove, but I suppose this is the closest to it.  Sabermetrician Tom Tango is soliciting opinions on his project, "The 2006 Scouting Report by the Fans for the Fans," the fourth consecutive year he's conducted this study.

You can vote on the 2006 team here, and the results from 2005 are listed here.  The rankings are not position-based -- for instance, grade Rob Mackowiak on how you feel about him overall, not just as a center fielder.  Below is how I graded the Sox -- click on it for a readable version:

Oh, to have Young again

Now that Javier Vazquez trade is going to get interesting. 

Chris Young, the phenom center fielder Kenny Williams dealt to get the disappointing Vazquez, hit his first career home run today.  With Shawn Green now playing for the Mets, Young will get plenty of reps from now until the end of the season.

I was hoping Young wouldn't be heard from until 2007.  Now, if the Diamondbacks' and White Sox's seasons both end on Oct. 1, chances are Javy and Kenny are going to start feeling the heat.

While I cringed when I saw Young was dealt, I understood the Vazquez acquisition.  The Sox don't like getting in bidding wars for arms, and with contracts expiring for Jon Garland and Jose Contreras, Kenny needed to raise his leverage. 

He did exactly that, but it backfired a little bit.  Garland and Contreras both signed three-year deals, and both are pitching better than Vazquez.  With Brandon McCarthy looking like he could also post a 5.00 ERA if he had to step into the rotation, now the Vazquez deal looks like an overreaction.  That's not even considering that the Sox could use a right-handed true fourth outfielder.

The good news is that Kenny may be able to salvage the deal some when it comes time to toss out throw away wash themselves clean of trade Freddy Garcia, which the Sun-Times' Joe Cowley says is imminent.

He'll be in a similar situation as Arizona GM Josh Byrnes was when he shopped Vazquez last offseason.  Vazquez was an underperforming pitcher with a big contract, which was better than Freddy's (not a rental) and worse (more expensive) at the same time. 

If Kenny can drum up the right market, he might be able to deal Garcia for a quality prospect, be it an arm or a bat.  Garcia has less noteworthy stuff than Vazquez, but if he can get a clean bill of a health and a few miles per hour back on his fastball, he might be worth a gamble for a lot of teams needing "veteran presence," given his track record.  Garcia has excelled in some big situations where Javy has tanked.

A top-tier prospect won't heal the pain from watching Young turn into a quality major leaguer, which is likely though not certain.  However, at least by acquiring Vazquez, he's created the possibility of a safety net with the ability to try for another prospect.  If he plays his cards right, he'll have only lost a couple years, and not a solid talent altogether.

Them's empty words

It was only a week ago when Ozzie Guillen said the following:

“Mackowiak needs to play also, but the way (Brian Anderson) has been swinging the bat now, we have to leave him alone.  He’s swinging the bat better. We are going to keep him in as long as we can.”

So why has Brian Anderson only started three of the last six games? 

Beats the heck out of me, but it's obvious I declared victory far too early.

Considering Anderson had more base hits with runners in scoring position yesterday than Scott Podsednik, Tadahito Iguchi, Jim Thome, Paul Konerko, Jermaine Dye, Joe Crede, Juan Uribe, Sandy Alomar Jr., Jesus Christ and Superman combined, the "long as we can" threshold hadn't nearly been reached.

Nevertheless, Rob Mackowiak started in his place, while Scott Podsednik manned left field.  This makes no sense for three reasons, aside from the glove:

1) Yanking him in and out of the lineup is not "leaving him alone."  Especially when he's deployed in a pinch-hitting situation where he comes into the game with two strikes against him, such as tonight. 

2) Anderson has reverse platoon splits.  In the last two games Anderson has started, he's faced two All-Stars -- Johan Santana and Kenny Rogers, both lefties.  Why would they expect results when Anderson's hitting lefties decidedly worse? 

He's slugging .417 against righties, and .289 against southpaws.  If he's sitting against righties because Rob Mackowiak needs to get into games, well...

3) ...Scott Podsednik needs more time off.  I'd like to see Mackowiak's bat in the lineup more, too.  He had a couple hits tonight, including a double, to raise his average to .300. 

Well, there's a spot for him.  Right now, Mack's OBP is higher than Podsednik's slugging.  Considering Pods is hitting .206/.261/.254 in August and Mack has one less stolen base (3) than Pods in the second half, there's no reason why Mack shouldn't be getting more reps in left field. 

(Admittedly, Mack's not hitting much better in August, but he has less than half the at-bats as Pods.)

Fortunately tonight, Mack's bat was able to make up for the run he allowed by not getting to a ball in center tonight.  That's not always going to happen, as his bat isn't as consistently good as his glove is consistently bad.

Get a boot, give a boot

If the previous four months are any indication, Ozzie Guillen's ejection might be the best thing that happened to them tonight. 



Ozzie got tossed by Dan Iassogna in the second inning, marking the fifth time this year that's happened, and the ninth overall.  Yup -- more than his first two years combined.

So far, the team has responded to his previous four ejections.  Let's break 'em down:

MAY 13

The ejection:  Ozzie is thrown out by Dale Scott after two blown calls force Javier Vazquez to record five outs in an inning.  Vazquez gives up five runs and the lead, and the Sox lose 8-4 to the Minnesota Twins.

The week before:  The Sox were 3-3 over their last seven days, and had a three-game losing streak entering the ballgame.

The week after:  The Sox take the last two of the Minnesota series to split one in the Humpty Dome, then play 2-2 ball against the Devil Rays and Cubs.

MAY 22

The ejection:  Ozzie argues balls and strikes with home plate umpire Doug Eddings and is ejected after Jon Garland gives up back-to-back homers to Frank Thomas and Bobby Crosby.  The Sox come back and win 5-4.

The week before:  It coincides with the 4-2 week the Sox had after their first ejection, but this game was after the Sox pitching staff collapsed against the Cubs and lost the chance of a sweep.

The week after:  The Sox complete a rare sweep of Oakland, playing 4-2 ball the next seven days.

JUNE 20

The ejection:  Ozzie readily accepts his ejection when David Riske plunks the Cardinals' Chris Duncan after warnings were issued.  The Sox won 20-6.

The week before:  No problems here -- the Sox played 5-1 ball against the Rangers and Reds.  This was pure retaliation, not frustration, as Ozzie was happy that one of his pitchers didn't miss.

The week after:  The Sox bloody St. Louis for the sweep, winning five of six overall against the Cardinals, Astros and Pirates.

AUGUST 10

The ejection:  Dale Cooper blows a double-play call when Bobby Abreu doesn't touch the bag racing back to first on a flyball.  Cooper then throws Ozzie out for speaking his mind.

The week before:  The Sox had an up-and-down week, going 3-3 against the Royals, Blue Jays and Angels.  However, the Sox had yet to beat the Yankees after being swept in the Bronx a couple weeks prior.

The week after:  The Sox lose the following game, but end up with a series win against the Yankees, a sweep of the Tigers and splitting the first two against the Royals. 

That makes the Sox a combined 19-7 in the week following an Ozzie Guillen ejection, and given that the Sox have the most difficult schedule remaining in comparison to the Tigers, Twins and Red Sox, they need all the help they can get.

What's wrong with Jose?

Since he returned from the DL on May 21, Jose Conteras hasn't been the force of nature that led him to 17 straight wins -- even though some of them came after his bout of sciatica. 

Though he looks better doing it, Contreras has actually been effective as Latter-Day Mark Buehrle.  His ERA since his return is 5.02 over 120 innings, where he's given up 127 hits over that time.  That's huge, because he only gave up 100 hits in the 131 innings preceding this stretch.  His walk and strikeout rates have been the same, so, like Buehrle, the answer is somewhere in the hit column.  Especially since his velocity is around what it should be.

I can come up with four separate possibilities as to what's derailed his successful run, although not being Contreras, Don Cooper or Ozzie Guillen, I can't say for sure what's up.  Maybe you fellas can help.

1) Bad luck.  Self-explanatory.  Basically just one of those bad runs every pitcher has.

2) Bad health.  Contreras is leaving more pitches up, and a bad back could be one of the causes.  When you can't bend, it compromises the release point, and also affects push-off power.
 
3) Dropping down too much.  Maybe it's just me, but it seems like Contreras has been going sidearm more often than usual.  That seems to defeat the purpose of dropping down, because the novelty is supposed to mess with the hitters' ability to pick up the ball.  The sidearm pitches seem to have less movement, so it doesn't seem like something he'd want to overexpose.  His two-seamer and forkball seem to have less life from where I'm sitting.

4) Runners distracting him.  Maybe it's just me, but it seems like Contreras is paying too much attention to runners.  Last year, he seemed to improve when he shrugged off runners, because they were going to steal on him no matter how many times he threw to first.  Maybe it was a byproduct of his uber-low WHIP (less than 1.00), or maybe it was because of it, but he seemed to attack hitters relentlessly, even if runners were getting big leads.  I liked that Jose.

I didn't catch every pitch of Conteras' start tonight, since I was watching it at a bar while playing trivia with some co-workers.  I did see the snowball innings, but perhaps I might be missing something from the quick frames he worked.  At 70 pitches, tonight's outing was the shortest one Contreras has worked with the White Sox in terms of pitches, not counting the time he came out of a game against Kansas City after pulling his hamstring in the fourth inning (61 pitches) in early 2005.

Minnesota Peach

Another quote to love from Ozzie:

"They have three kids they don't even talk about," Guillen said. "Nobody talks about Tyner, 'Ty Cobb' Punto and their shortstop [Bartlett], and they're kicking everybody's [tails], at least my [tail]. And we talk about [Torii] Hunter? The guys that that are kicking our [tails] are the three guys with no names. That's the way it is, man."

Cobb actually hit .367 over his career, while Punto's hitting only .361 against the Sox, so it's obvious that he wasn't making the comparison based on his hitting.  My guess is that Ozzie called him that because Punto's a fervent racist*.

Anyway, I'll be doing some catch-up work in the next day or two.  I watched the first two innings of the Johan Santana start before going to Syracuse for a Triple-A ballgame, where I got a Jerry Owens card as part of a free International League promotion. 

Speaking of Owens, he and the Charlotte Knights can wrap up their division with a win tonight.  Also, Lance Broadway has joined the Knights and will make his first AAA start Tuesday. 

*I'm guessing that Nick Punto is actually a nice guy and not a racist.

Santanaria

Since July 1, 2003, which marked the end of the Frank Thomas-Magglio Ordonez era, here's how we stand (or sit) against Santana:

W-L	ERA	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	K
8-2	1.44	81.1	48	13	8	15	91

To look at the bright side, when he strikes a Sox hitter out, that means we saw at least three pitches...

Access-orizing

It's nice to see that mainstream outlets picked up some things I've addressed earlier this week, helping to resolve or flesh out some issues I've taken stabs at. 

The Chicago Tribune's Dave Van Dyck talks to a number of people about Brian Anderson, whose resurgence has finally "solidified" his starting spot.  "Solidified" is in quotes because despite Ozzie saying he's sticking with one lineup, Anderson's started two out of the last four games.

It's clear that Anderson's season turned around during the Cleveland series from June 9-11.  Anderson went from Charlotte-bound to major-league mainstay with a game-saving grab of Travis Hafner's liner, and a three-run homer.  But confidence isn't all there was to it, as Greg Walker explains:

But hitting coach Greg Walker couldn't resist the temptation, if only because he could see a small mechanical flaw holding back Anderson's potential.

"He had to change his swing," Walker said. "So when the organization was trying to decide whether to send him down, we made a simple [alteration], and it clicked."

The change?  Basically, before swinging, Anderson was holding the bat flat instead of perpendicular to the ground.

"It finally got to the point that I needed to swallow my pride and start to rack up some singles and put the ball in play and say to myself, 'This is not working out,'" Anderson said.

Said Walker, "Within one day, you could see a textbook swing. It was immediate, and it felt good to him."

And the results showed.  Anderson had two hits, including a home run, June 11 against Cleveland. Then he had two more, including a double, five days later against Cincinnati.  He was on his way.

***********

WhiteSox.com's Scott Merkin reports on Ozzie Guillen's 14-minute tirade that mainly covered the idea that the Sox gain unfair advantages through illegal field preparation or stealing signs.

It's a shame he doesn't visit, because Merkin only alludes to what Ozzie had to say about Justin Verlander supposedly tipping his pitches.  We had an interesting discussion on the subject, and it would've been nice to hear what grinds Ozzie's gears, although I wonder if my site could support the bandwith he'd use.

He does agree with us, however, on the flimsiness of some claims that have been made:

"Good, I hope it keeps happening," said Guillen of the cheating allegations. "What happened in the playoffs and World Series? We won 1-0, 2-1. We won so many one-run games, more than anyone in baseball.

"You look at our Nos. 3, 4 and 5 hitters, they are the best in baseball. If we're cheating, how come we don't help Brian Anderson or [Juan] Uribe? If we're going to cheat, we're not just going to cheat for a few guys. Why is Brian Anderson having such a hard time to perform?

"[Jim] Thome has 30-some home runs just because? He has 30 home runs every year, off the bat. We're cheating on the mound? Our pitching staff gets beat up once in a while. They're mad. They can't admit that a Latino kicked their [tail].

"Then, the owner in Boston, he said we were cheating," Guillen added. "He doesn't even know what a field looks like."

The Trib also has their own version of the story, titled "Guillen gets fired up over finger-pointers", and yes, Freddy is included, too:

"Well, when you give up five runs, it's a funny thing," Guillen said. "Players can say whatever they want to say because it's their right, but we gave the lead to Freddy a couple of times, and they tied the games a couple of times.

"Sometimes people should blame themselves when things happen."

***********

Last week's issue of the New Yorker had an interesting article on the impact of blogs on the mainstream media.  Though it mainly discusses political blogs, I think a lot of the same issues apply to sports.  It's worth a read if you're into this sort of thing.

A very Freddy follow-up

Freddy Garcia's attitude during and after Friday's game didn't exactly jive with mine: 

“I tried to stay in the game, keep it close,” Garcia said. “If we don’t really hit too much, where are we going to be?”

So I went around the Internet to see how other evaluations of Freddy's performance stacked up.  Here's a sampling:

• ChicagoSports.com: Sox starter Freddy Garcia (11-8) was on the ropes for most of the game.

• Sun-Times:  Rather than putting his foot on the throat and locking Minnesota down, Garcia gave up a solo home run to the first batter he faced in the sixth.

• Daily Southtown: It seems to me that hot offense or not, a pitcher who has a game like that shouldn’t be complaining about his run support.

• South Side Sox:  I didn't see any of his teammates hang their heads when Freddy gave the Twins the lead, not once, not twice, but three times.

• ChiSoxBlog:  Freddy's hissy-fit in the dugout last night surely didn't endear him to Neal Cotts or any other reliever for that matter

That's what I thought.

Since he's getting about 5.5 runs a game each start, there's really not much to say about Garcia's quote other than he's being a pussy and a terrible teammate.  In my opinion, however, tonight's events made him look worse.  Jon Garland didn't get a lot of help from the offense tonight, but he somehow managed to win the game, and win it rather easily.  Freddy's question may have been rhetorical, but Garland's performance answered it in a way Freddy probably doesn't want to hear. 

Also, since I made the comparison yesterday, I paid a lot of attention to Brad Radke's performance today.  Like Garcia, his fastball is lucky to touch 90 once a game, and he's had some discomfort in his throwing arm.  Unlike Garcia, though, Radke has disclosed his problems, while Freddy pretends that nothing's the matter.

Also unlike Freddy, Radke has a quality off-speed pitch -- a change-up that looks exactly the same as his fastball coming out of his hand, which was up to 15 miles per hour slower than his heater.  Not to mention that he uses the black of the plate more than the white of it. 

So far, this comparison may be unfair to Garcia because Radke's change has always been his out pitch, while Freddy's forced to create one on the fly because he doesn't have his fastball.  Like I've said before, I'd be more than willing to see if a full off-season does anything to help his right arm regain strength.

On the other hand, the Minnesota defense let Radke down numerous times, with Luis Castillo losing the ball in the lights, Jason Bartlett throwing a ball away with two outs and Nick Punto letting a grounder go through his legs.  He had to work his tail off (95 pitches in five innings) to work around it and limit the damage.  Through it all, however, I didn't see one visual clue indicating that Radke was displeased with his team's effort. 

I can recall two occasions aside from Friday when Freddy embarrassed his teammates by throwing his hands up in the air after one isolated miscue -- April 16 when a ball hydroplaned underneath Tadahito Iguchi's mitt, and on July 8 against the Red Sox, when the ball fell in between second, short and center.  Of course, Freddy walked six batters while rain was soaking everything and everybody on the field in that first game, And he gave up seven hits over the fourth and fifth innings on July 8, accounting for five Boston runs.  Naturally, it's everybody else's fault.

Meanwhile, Radke actually pitched well -- six strikeouts and no walks in five innings, and two unearned runs -- so he actually had a reason to air his grievances.  But he didn't, because he's a professional pitcher, and more importantly, a professional pitcher who needs his teammates because he doesn't get a lot of guys out on his own.  Freddy needs more help than Radke in that respect, and if he keeps up the bitching and moaning, I wonder if he's going to get it.

Runs before walking

Freddy Garcia didn’t walk a batter in his second straight start tonight, a 7-3 loss against the Minnesota Twins.  It marks only the fifth time in his career where he’s gone consecutive starts without issuing a free pass.

The more interesting fact is that before this year, he’d only done it twice.  The only other occasions happened in 2001.  That year, Freddy won a career high in games (18), posted a career-low ERA (3.05) and finished third in Cy Young voting. 

Let’s just say none of those things are going to happen this year.

Of course, a 7 mile-per-hour difference on his fastball made Freddy’s spurts of control that year a luxury – now, he needs to grab plate just to survive, considering all the hits he’s giving up. 

Since the beginning of May, Freddy has started 20 games and walked one or none in 13 of them.  He’s only walked more than two batters on two different occasions.  Yet in spite of that stretch of control, his record is 7-8, with a 4.67 ERA. 

Torii Hunter showed everybody why Freddy can’t live on control alone when he homered to give the Twins the lead in the sixth.  With Hunter’s blast, Freddy has now given up more homers (23) than walks (22) since May 1. 

Now the Twins have a couple pitchers who have allowed more homers than walks in single seasons.  Tomorrow’s starter, Brad Radke, has done it twice, and overall he’s been a successful pitcher.  Carlos Silva also did that in 2005, but since he only walked nine guys in 188 innings last year, he’d either have to give up more homers than walks, or he’d have won the Cy Young Award.

The difference between Radke and Garcia is that Radke is used to pitching with slow stuff.  He has a big difference – at least 15 miles per hour or so -- between his fastball and his off-speed stuff.  He has a slower curveball, and he’s not afraid to throw his changeup two or three times in a row to any hitter.

Freddy’s curve, on the other hand, was clocked at 77 tonight – only 10 below his average fastball.  It looked good when he was able to put it in the dirt on the outside corner against right-handed batters, but when he leaves them up, it isn’t slow enough to where he can get away with a hanger due to sheer mistiming by the hitter. 

Overall, he gave up 10 hits in six innings tonight, making it 156 in 133 since May.  Radke only gave up 214 in 200 innings of work last year.  Garcia’s also given up 30 stolen bases in 31 attempts this year; Radke’s allowed 24 stolen bases since 2004. 

Numbers like those explain why Radke posted a 4.00 ERA last year with more homers than walks, while Freddy’s fortunate to have an ERA less than one run higher.  Freddy’s still operating as a power pitcher with a finesse arm, and unless he knows he’ll get his velocity back with a full offseason, that’s not going to cut it. 

Politte eulogized

Cliff Politte entered the 2005 season with a 4.50 career ERA, including a mediocre first season in Chicago.  On top of these issues, he had failed in his stint as a closer in Toronto and had a six-decision losing streak.  

He’d have you believe that he was a completely fungible arm in the bullpen.  In 2005, though, his contributions couldn’t have been replaced.

Read the rest

The deal with Neal

Three lefties came to the plate against Neal Cotts tonight, and all three reached.  By my count, lefties and switch-hitters have reached base in 14 of their last 23 plate appearances, dating back to last month. 

Worse yet, pretty much all his peripherals are going in the wrong direction.  Comparing last year's numbers to those of the current year:

• Hits/9IP: 5.67 to 9.57
• K/9IP: 8.65 to 6.89
• SLG: .241 to .486

The one number in his favor is walks, as he's averaging 3.10 BB/9 IP, compared to 4.34 the year before.  At the rate he's going, however, that won't last long.  Compare his numbers before and after the All-Star Break:

	G	IP	H	ER	BB	K
Pre-ASB	39	36.2	30	12	10	30
Post-ASB	15	9.2	17	4	6	6

His ERA is bailed out by a large number of inherited runners he's let score, as well as a few occasions where his teammates have prevented his runners from crossing the plate.  But looking at his splits, here's also an interesting divide:

	G	IP	H	ER	BB	K
Home	29	25.0	31	12	9	22
Away	25	21.1	16	4	7	14

He's also surrendered six of his seven home runs at U.S. Cellular Field, and oppenents are slugging .563 off him at home, and only .342 on the road.  I have no idea what this means, I'm just throwing it out there.

Whatever the case may be, Neal's game has been de-railed since the All-Star Break, and it's really all due to location.  He's way off on his spots, he's not getting ahead in the count, and hitters are looking for his fastball, not his change.

At the same time, I'm beginning to think more and more that Cotts had a career year in 2005 (1.94 ERA, 38 hits in 60+ innings) that he won't soon match.  After all, he's only a two-pitch pitcher, with a low-90s fastball and a changeup that is maybe 10 miles per hour slower, and the secret is the slightly awkward delivery that hides the ball and gets it to the plate sooner than hitters would think. 

If hitters solve that hitch, what else does Cotts have?  Evidently not impeccable control, as we're seeing now.  He's pretty much as precise as Matt Thornton, without the stuff that makes hitters -- especially lefties -- cry. 

I'm not saying that it's time to give up on Neal.  Far from it.  His first-half performance would put him in the top 15 percent of relievers.  But at the same time, I wonder how many top-flight relievers would struggle for weeks trying to retire hitters in solely matchup situations, especially when health isn't the issue.

Technically speaking

Some updates on what I'm doing to this site...

1) If you happen to see any different colors on this particular blog, it's not your monitor.  I've made the slightest of color changes to the links on this page to make them stand out, and to break up the gray.  If this is better or worse, let me know.  Silence means it's not making a big difference.

2) Meet the Sox is now updated with the current 25-man roster.  I will be writing eulogies for Cliff Politte and Chris Widger when I get the time, but at least the roster is set.

3) Comments should appear faster.  You may have noticed a message after posting a comment saying "due to caching and moderation, it may not display right away."  Well, it was the former (I don't moderate...at least beforehand), and I've changed it so comments appear right away.  I still have more work to do with the comment field, and I crashed the site twice for about 15 seconds apiece tinkering tonight, so if you happen to see an error message at any point, that probably means I'm cursing and reverting to the backup file as fast as I can.

4) Obligatory comment spot.  Limited* time offer!  Register today and you'll receive the ability to post comments on this site!  Ordinarily a $55 value**, you'll receive it for free if you sign up now.  Don't hestitate -- this offer won't*** last forever.


Thanks for visiting,
Jim

*Unlimited
**This is a lie
***will

VBA Day

I often overlook the Daily Herald when perusing headlines because their site is the most difficult to navigate, sometimes blocks me with registration requests, and it doesn't offer RSS feeds to ease the burden.  So thanks to South Side Sox for pointing out this quote:

This was (Brian) Anderson’s sixth consecutive start in center field. The rookie, for most of the season, had been platooning with Rob Mackowiak, who has been struggling defensively.

“Mackowiak needs to play also, but the way (Anderson) has been swinging the bat now, we have to leave him alone,” manager Ozzie Guillen said. “He’s swinging the bat better. We are going to keep him in as long as we can.”

After being wrong about some things (like Chris Singleton) and stonewalled on others (a backup catcher better than Sandy Alomar Jr.), I now can say one of my crusades has finally worked out.

Not that I had any bearing at all on the situation, but it's fun to pretend.  Congratulations, Brian.

Tipping points

You know what really grinds my gears?  When people rely on "stealing signs" or "tipping pitches" as excuses for poor performance. 

Jim Leyland is the latest to resort to that excuse:

"Almost impossible," manager Jim Leyland told Detroit media. "It's pretty suspicious when a guy looks at [four] straight fastballs and then doesn't flinch on a changeup and stays back and hits it out of the ballpark. I love Jim Thome, and he's a hell of a hitter, but that's one of the damnedest things I've ever seen."

I don't see what's so impossible about it.  Ronnie Belliard did it against Brandon McCarthy earlier this year.  It's called "speeding up the bat." 

Of course, Tony La Russa (or a "source close to" Tony La Russa) complained that the White Sox were stealing signs from beyond center field off Jason Marquis, helping the Sox to score 13 runs in five innings.  Then Marquis went and allowed 12 runs to Atlanta the next month.

Then again, Mark Buehrle did it earlier this year when he suggested that he was tipping pitches on Mother's Day, as the Twins scored seven runs on him in the first inning, seeing only 29 pitches.  Then the Cubs went and scored seven runs off him in the first inning two months later on only 24. 

I understand the need to defend players and not openly acknowledge that they sucked that game, but there are a ton of cliches that already do the trick.

Royal pains

The Royals worry me.  Not just because the Sox are coming off a sweep of the Tigers while the Royals are limping back from Cleveland, but because the Sox haven't played well against them all year. 

Chicago currently holds an 8-4 record against the Royals, which would be passable if the Tigers weren't currently 11-1 against the Royals.  What's tougher is that the Sox don't deserve to be 8-4 with the way they've played against Kansas City so far. 

I see the Royals coming up on the schedule and am reminded of...

• Not capitalizing with a runner on third and less than two outs twice on April 9
• Needing an Angel Berroa error to kickstart the offense on April 18
• Scoring three out of four runs without putting a ball in play on April 19
• Kerry Robinson scaling the wall on a ball that bounced on the warning track, setting up the winning run on May 7
• Watching Jose Contreras give leads back in the early going on July 31
• Coughing up a two-run lead in the eighth-inning on August 1, and needing extras to win.

When only two of eight wins have been of the solid variety against the worst team in baseball, that doesn't inspire a whole lotta confidence.

B.A. barrage

"It's about time I started to do something to contribute offensively." -- Brian Anderson

Now, now, Brian...don't be so hard on yourself.  By my count, you've been doing it for two months. 

Obviously, Anderson has been a work in progress all season long, but the way I see it, he turned into a big-league player over the course of a three-day period.  On June 9 against Cleveland, he robbed Travis Hafner of an extra-base hit that would've put the Indians ahead, a ball Rob Mackowiak surely would not have reached.  On June 11, he hit a three-run homer with the Sox down 10-2 to spark a furious ninth-inning rally that ended with the tying run at the plate. 

His performance during that series quelled the uprising that wanted him demoted to Charlotte, and he's been a different ballplayer ever since. 

Today is noteworthy, not only because Anderson hit a game-tying, two-run, two-out single that tied the game, but also because now Anderson has as many plate appearances after June 11 as he did before June 11. 

The comparison is downright stark:

Era	AB	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG
Before	125	16	19	2	4	12	16	42	.152	.250	.264
After	132	17	36	14	2	16	9	25	.273	.326	.424

He hasn't had much of an impact in scoring runs, but that's mainly because he's been sandwiched in between a sub-average OBP guy (Juan Uribe or Alex Cintron) and two guys who haven't hit at all as of late (Scott Podsednik, Pablo Ozuna).  Most of his terrible numbers with runners in scoring position came during that "before" period, and I don't have the tools or wherewithal to separate those at-bats from the rest. 

Otherwise, that kind of jump in production surpassed my expectations (I would've expected him to be in the .190s at this point), and he's made a lot of people look foolish. 

Hell, he still makes people look foolish.  During the Yankees series, every single time Anderson came to the plate, Michael Kay said that the Sox thought they could survive without Aaron Rowand in center, but Anderson hasn't held up his end. 

As much as I love Rowand, he's been the lesser center fielder in the last two months (not even factoring in his five errors to Anderson's zero).  Here's the way his season breaks down:

Era	AB	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG
Before	179	26	53	10	7	23	6	28	.296	.339	.492
After	189	26	42	13	5	21	11	43	.222	.300	.381

Not shown: Rowand's OBP is buoyed by his 16 HBPs, which is second in the NL (he finished No. 2 in the AL last year in that category with 21).  Also, after June 11, Anderson has grounded into one double play; Rowand has grounded into six.  Methinks the NL has discovered the big hole in his swing low and away.

Mound sounds

Top 5 pitching performances this year:

No. 1: Jose Contreras, Aug. 11.  9 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K
Considering this was against the Tigers, following a five-inning start the night before, and against the Tigers, there's no doubt about it.

No. 2:  Javier Vazquez, Aug. 5.  8 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 13 K
This was as important for Javy as it was for the White Sox.  Considering he hadn't completed seven innings since May, this was huge.

No. 3.  Mark Buehrle, April 21.  8 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
This win against the Twins looks a lot bigger now than it did then.  It was also a victory over Johan Santana, which is usually an automatic loss.

No. 4.  Freddy Garcia, June 22.  8 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
Freddy avenged the one-hit, 1-0 loss he suffered last year by returning the favor to Cardinals rookie Anthony Reyes.

No. 5:  Jon Garland, July 23.  8.1 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K
Garland shuts down the Rangers to end a four-game losing streak -- he had the only two victories during the 2-10 skid opening the second half

---

Justin Verlander's ERA against the American League by team:

East		Central		West
Yankees	10.80	WHITE SOX	9.87	Athletics	2.25
Red Sox	n/a	Twins	0.60	Rangers	0.00
Blue Jays	n/a	Indians	1.32	Angels	4.50
Orioles	4.26	Royals	0.00	Mariners	1.29
Devil Rays	4.09

The Rookie of the Year candidate has a 2.95 ERA on the season after tonight's start -- and against everybody else, his ERA is 2.20.  As you can see, his ERA against the Yankees is higher, but he's only had one start against the Bombers, compared to three against Chicago.  For whatever reason, the Sox have solved him thus far.

Who's better, who's best

Last year, when Joe Crede was hitting (a dangerous) .230 and popping up just about everything, Hawk Harrelson defended the third baseman and said he would take him over any other third baseman in the American League.

Hawk's said a lot of ridiculous things in his career, but perhaps this notion was the most laughable.  The gap between Crede and Alex Rodriguez was about as large as the one between the cities in which they played.  When Joe went on the DL on August 26, his line was .232 / .285 / .408.  Rodriguez was hitting .316 / .414 / .607 -- yes, his on-base percentage was higher than Crede's slugging. 

A year later, however, and Hawk just may have been on to something (blind squirrel and broken clock parables apply). 

Look at the table of the tape between these two third basemen:

Crede	Category	Rodriguez
.305 .341 .559 25 78 0 19 41 9 .974 .773	BA OBP SLG HR RBI SB BB K E Fielding% ZR	.282 .384 .501 23 81 11 64 103 19 .933 .735

That's a pretty even breakdown, and Crede's RBI total is probably more admirable considering he hits sixth or seventh, while Rodriguez hits third or fourth.

And when you compared the way the two played against each other in the Sox-Yankees series, Crede more than held his own.  They put up similar offenive numbers -- Crede went 3-for-9 with two homers and three walks, A-Rod went 5-for-11 with one homer and three walk -- but while Crede didn't strand any runners, Rodriguez left five.

Then there was the defense.  In Game 2, Rodriguez hit a hard grounder to third with runners on first and second.  Crede backhanded it and in successive steps, got the force at third and threw Rodriguez out for a 5-3 double play. 

The next day, with runners on first and second, Crede hit a soft grounder to third.  Rodriguez fielded it cleanly, then threw five feet wide of second, into right field, allowing a run to score.  The floodgates would open, the Sox would score four runs, and that error helped to give the Sox the series. 

This is not to say Crede is the better third baseman, since Rodriguez will end up in the Hall of Fame while Crede will have to pay admission.  But for the first time, and maybe the only time, we can compare the two and without factoring in the $23 million difference, say that we're fine with the guy we have.

Freddy gets forlorn

Freddy Garcia had some woeful, doleful words for the Sun-Times' Joe Cowley today:

'Yeah, I know it's going to be me,'' Garcia said Wednesday. ''I think about it a little bit, and I know it's going to be me. I understand that.

''It almost happened [last] offseason, so if they trade me, what can I say? Hopefully they trade me to a good team, a team that is contending.''

I suppose it makes sense that Freddy's the likeliest to be moved.  He's getting paid the least, is tied for the shortest contract and doesn't have the most promising future judging by his current stuff. 

At the same time, I'm actually sort of impressed with the way Garcia is pitching this year, maybe as much as I'm frustrated by him.

Last year, Freddy was throwing 93-94 miles per hour and still wasn't a whole lot of fun to watch.  He'd get beat up in the first inning, and then it'd be a battle the rest of the way.  He didn't strike a lot of guys out, and if he went six and gave up three earned runs, I'd be thrilled.  His ERA (3.87) felt at least a half-run higher.

Therefore, if you told me that Freddy would lose 6-7 miles per hour off his fastball, I would've expected it to be a disaster of Kochian proportions.  But he's been competitive -- as evidenced by his 10-7 record.  He won 14 games with much better stuff last year, and he's on pace to match that total. 

The gopher balls are the only killer -- he's given up a staff-high 26, and that's going to happen when your fastball sits at 87 and hitters get multiple cracks at it.  But I wonder what Freddy might do with a full offseason off -- no World Baseball Classic, and, at this pace, no postseason starts.  If he regained his fastball, he might be a No. 2 starter again.  And he's not that old to say his heater has passed him by.

Left behind

Pablo Ozuna and Scott Podsednik combined to go 0-for-5 with three strikeouts in tonight's loss to the New York Yankees.  Pods had two of those strikeouts, including the one that made for two outs in the ninth.  I was pleading for Rob Mackowiak to enter the game at that point, considering he's the top lefty bat, but my efforts were in vain.  After all, I doubt he could hear me from my apartment.

The bigger problem is that tonight's debacle accurately represents the issues out there in left field.  Here are the numbers the two have posted in the last month:

Name	AB	H	XBH	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG
Pods	94	23	7	6	19	.245	.297	.340
Ozuna	29