Sox Machine: Chicago White Sox blog

After Christmas, Garland's still up

After Kenny Williams acquired Javier Vazquez for Orlando Hernandez, Luis Vizcaino and Chris Young, it gave him some leverage when sitting at the bargaining table with free agents-to-be Jon Garland and Jose Contreras.

The plan was to offer them identical three-year, $24 million contracts, which the pitchers would most likely reject – and then they’d go from there.  With six starting pitchers, Williams could take his time and see which one of the talented hurlers would accept a deal.

Jon Garland blinked first.

And I’m not sure why.

In an offseason where the sub-.500 A.J. Burnett gets $55 million over five years, the soft-tossing lefty Jarrod Washburn can make $36 million over four, and the up-and-down Kevin Millwood can make $48 over four, I would’ve been tempted to press my luck (no whammy no whammy no whammy) and give the free market a shot. 

Strikeouts aside, he has just about every advantage over Contreras.  Age, consistency and intangibles all point in his favor, and issues like health and talent are a wash. 

Any problems that Garland has had in the past stems from youth; Contreras’ problems were mostly in his head.  Since everybody goes through the former, I’d think the latter would be a giant red flag.

Nevertheless, the lanky Californian is now under Sox control for the next three years to the tune of $29 million.  Since the first year is arbitration, think of it as a two-year, $22 million free agent contract.  A guy who hasn’t entered his prime should fetch more than that on the open market, shouldn’t he?

Yes, there are some doubts that he wouldn’t have as successful a season as he did last year.  He doesn’t strike out a lot of guys, and he doesn’t have a track record that screams “ace.”

But I have more faith in Garland; perhaps more faith than most.  He’s cut down on his walks every season while maintaining his strikeout rate.  The development of a changeup has given him a legitimate offspeed pitch for the first time in his career, and he’s keeping hitters off balance. 

Most of all, Garland has benefited from Ozzie Guillen’s patience.  Jerry Manuel had a notoriously short leash on Garland, not letting him work deep into games or out of jams.  The need to be perfect to stay in games made him a nibbler instead of a pitcher, and he spent a large part of the game behind in the count.

However, in 2004, Guillen gave Garland big-boy pants – and while he struggled at times in 2004, he seemed to be less fazed by pressure in 2005 – from beginning the season 8-0 to closing it out with two quality starts in the playoffs.  Sure, he went 10-10 in between, but it wasn’t his fault.  He had just about the same ERA in the first half as he did in the second.

I feel comfortable with this deal, and with Garland’s ability to be a quality starter for years to come.  His top comparable player according to baseball-reference is Brad Radke, who would be a No. 2 starter on most teams. 

The Sox rotation is not just set for 2006.  Garland, Mark Buehrle, Freddy Garcia, Javier Vazquez and Brandon McCarthy are under Sox control through 2007.  Well played, Kenny.

Same city, same teams

Just two months after the White Sox swept the Houston Astros for their first World Series title in 88 years, the Bears have locked up their first division title in five years in search of their first Super Bowl in 20 years.

In Chicago, any reason is a good reason to talk about the 1985 Bears, and once again it’s the defense that’s drawing the comparisons.  They’re No. 1 in the league in that category, and they’ve seemingly scored more points than the offense.

But they’re not much like the ’85 Bears, a team that actually had an offense.  Led by the late, great Walter Payton, the Bears had the No. 1 rushing attack in the league.  They finished tops in the NFC in scoring, and only behind the Chargers in the entire NFL.  They hammered teams week in and week out – only two games were decided by a score, three if you count an eight-point win over Tampa Bay, but they didn’t have two-point conversions then.

The 1985 Bears were a great football team, maybe the greatest of all time.  They 2005 Bears are a great half of a team.

A more comparable team doesn’t play football, but it can be found in the same city.

That’s right, the 2005 Chicago White Sox.

There are so many parallels between the two teams – more than just “The Sox did well, and now the Bears are doing well” – that I wonder why more people aren’t talking about it.  From philosophies to personnel, the Bears have followed in the footsteps of the most recent Chicago championship while in pursuit of their own.

Offensive philosophies:  Both teams don’t aim to score a lot, but just to score enough.  The Sox gave up a lot of outs in the first inning to get the first run across and give their pitchers a lead to work with.  The Bears don’t have the equivalent of the three-run homer in their arsenal – they try to get the lead however they can, and then they seek to minimize mistakes the rest of the way.

Defensive philosophies:  The Bears rank first in the league in interceptions – I saw Aaron Rowand play a series in Yankee Stadium where he had about six of them in three games.  If you add in starting pitching as defense, both teams are relentless – and if a team manages to get past the first layer of defense, its job only gets tougher.  The Sox had one of the best bullpens in all of baseball, and the Bears have the top red zone defense in the league.  Lots of runners and drives stranded.

Speed kills:  It’s true for both teams, although the Bears put it to better use.  Scott Podsednik was caught stealing more than Brian Urlacher has over-pursued running backs this year.

Injury-prone keystones of the offense:  Rex Grossman, meet Frank Thomas.  Had Thomas not been around for a quarter of the season, the Sox might’ve missed the playoffs completely.  And if the Bears were forced to start Kyle Orton for the entire season, they’d most likely be one-and-done come playoff time. 

The only area where the teams are vastly different is the front office.  Kenny Williams is bold, aggressive and never afraid to make a move.  Jerry Angelo hasn’t been able to get the pieces he’s needed from the outside, and had the defense been a year late in developing, he’d most likely be fired.

And then you have the managers.  Soft-spoken and mild-mannered, Lovie Smith is quite the departure from Ozzie Guillen.  I’d venture to guess that Ozzie has dropped more f-bombs in one press conference than Lovie has in his life.  But both do a great job of making what they have work for them, and the players seem to respond to their leadership. 

If you want to bring the 1985 Bears into the equation, then let’s call Ozzie the Venezuelan Mike Ditka. 

Taking dominant defenses out of the equation, that’s the only thing the ’85 Bears have in common with these two teams.  They steamrolled the entire league, and playoffs seemed to get easier for them.  A championship was a foregone conclusion.

That’s not the case in 2005.  This time around, the Bears have captured the attention of the league by not only operating with the smallest margin of error, but somehow thriving in spite of them. 

Just like the Sox.

Olivo, over and over again

The Padres parted with Miguel Olivo at the contract-tendering deadline, capping off what has been a troubled year and a half for the ex-White Sox catcher.

Olivo could use a change of scenery.  Might the former Chicago backstop benefit from a familiar backdrop?

While it was a fair deal for all he brought to the team, the three-year, $15 million contract extension the team handed A.J. Pierzynski highlighted the lack of depth at the position. 

Behind Pierzynski is Chris Widger, who had an acceptable year at backup catcher.  But he was out of baseball as recently as 2004, can't hit righties and only threw out two of 26 basestealers in 2005.  He's a nice story, but the bottom could fall out real quick.

In the minors, there's Chris Stewart, who hit very well in Birmingham last year.  The Sox's AA stop boasts one of the toughest hitter's parks in all the minors, so he's definitely worth watching.  Unfortunately, his track record is short and inconsistent, and he's still a season or two away from contributing at a major-league level.

That's it.  Stewart's the third catcher on the 40-man roster, and he hasn't spent a day above AA ball.  Ben Davis was DOA when he came to the White Sox in the Freddy Garcia trade, and Raul Casanova, last seen in the middle of the champagne celebration in the White Sox clubhouse following the World Series, has been released.

That's where Olivo enters the picture.  The Sox had soured on him because they felt like he wasn't going to reach his potential, and cashed him in for pitching.  But he certainly hit well enough in his last half season with the Sox (.812 OPS in 46 games) to be a serviceable backup catcher.  He even threw out 33 percent of runners, compared to Widger's....8 percent.

He brings a fair amount of baggage, but considering the team won a World Series with "clubhouse cancers" Pierzynski and Carl Everett, it wouldn't be the first time the Sox took on a character risk.

Or a performance risk for that matter.  There's no guarantee that Olivo could put up respectable numbers -- he completely laid an egg in Seattle following the trade, putting up an OPS+ of 17. 

Seventeen.  An average OPS+ is 100.  It was that bad.

Then again, he posted a 104 OPS+ with San Diego in just over 100 at-bats, which is excellent for a catcher who can throw runners out.

What Olivo would the Sox get?  Who knows?  Better yet, does it matter?  If they can sign him for less than $1 million guaranteed, I think it'd be a great deal.  It's what Kenny Williams paid Davis to sit on the bench in AAA Charlotte, after all.

We know he liked playing for Chicago -- so much so, he bawled when he received notification that he was traded to Seattle.  We also know he can mash lefties.  He's slugged .583 off southpaws as a major leaguer, compared to only .313 against righties.

That's perfect, because A.J. Pierzynski can't hit lefties.  As noted in his 2006 preview, he didn't draw a single walk against them in 87 at-bats.  Widger, his platoon mate who faces lefties when he can help it, only posted a .758 OPS against pitchers he has an advantage over.

There may be a lot of interest in Olivo, because he's a catcher with a good arm, some speed, and he's shown he can hit at the major-league level at times.  He already has more on his resume than 90 percent of available catchers.  But it would be a mistake for the Sox not to look into acquiring his services at least.  Pierzynski against righties, and Olivo against lefties, could potentially provide better production from the catcher position than almost every other American League team. 

Johnny Damon, northern Belle

If you've somehow missed hearing that Johnny Damon has jumped from the Boston Red Sox to the New York Yankees, please let me know.  I'd like to crash at your place for a bit.

Damon has spurned the BoSox, signed with the Yankees, shorn his trademark mane and mountain-man beard, and now that's all we're going to be hearing about for the next....four years.  Terrrrrrific.

The Bronx Bombers stole a key member from their toughest divisional competition while addressing a weakness, giving many of those who follow the Yankees a burst of confidence.

But before Yankees fans start ordering their AL East Champs t-shirts, they should ask us Sox fans what happened when Jerry Reinsdorf took Albert Belle away from the Indians in free agency after the 1996 season.

Nothing. 

And Belle was a far better player.

Jerry Reinsdorf inked the malcontent slugger to the then-largest contract in baseball, and he actually had earned it.  He had three consecutive seasons with a slugging percentage over .623, and he was only one year removed from a season in which he became the first player to hit 50 homers and 50 doubles in the same season.

The Indians had rolled to their second straight divisional title in 1996, winning the AL Central by 14 1/2 games.  The Sox were overmatched in large part due to their weak outfield.  Tony Phillips, Darren Lewis and Danny Tartabull (wow -- remember them?) were no match for the Tribe's trio of Belle, Kenny Lofton and Manny Ramirez.

So the Chicago front office decided to address its weakness by robbing the Indians of their strength.  Taking Belle away from Cleveland, and adding Belle to the Sox, was supposed to make a world of difference.  It didn't.  The South Siders finished below .500, missing out on what could've been a winnable division considering Cleveland won it with only an 86-76 record.

Belle's sub-par performance was a big reason why they faltered, although Terry Bevington was arguably the worst full-time manager in Sox history -- he of the signals to a bullpen in which nobody has warmed up.  The infamous White Flag trade didn't help matters either, but a normal Belle performance probably would've ensured that such a move would have never occurred.

The surly power hitter struck out twice as much as he walked, after years of walking more than whiffing.  He lost 130something points in slugging, 80 points in on-base percentage, and played a godawful left field to boot.  That wasn't what the White Sox had in mind for $10 million a year. 

To Joey's credit, he did rebound with one of the most dominating offensive performances in White Sox history -- 48 doubles, and a team-record 49 homers and 152 RBI.  Of course, that year the Sox had no pitching to speak of.  The window of opportunity had closed, Belle escaped Chicago with a nifty clause in his contract triggered because he wasn't the highest-paid player in the game anymore, and the Pale Hose went into rebuilding mode with "The Kids Can Play."

Damon's situation will be different in New York, because he won't be expected to contribute as much as the Sox needed Belle to put forward.  The pin-up model just needs to be better than Bernie Williams was in 2005, and that can almost be assured.

But a team would like to be getting a true difference-maker for $13 million a year, and I don't see that.  Damon's OPS has never been remarkable, he has decent speed but nothing game-changing, and his range in center field is countered by an atrophic throwing arm. 

Cleveland had a much bigger void to fill with Belle's absence, and while one player couldn't make up for his production, a combination of them got the job done.  Brian Giles came up through the farm system and David Justice was signed as a free agent, and both those guys made sure that the Tribe would continue to have no problem scoring runs.

If Boston grabs former White Sox prospect Jeremy Reed away from Seattle, or perhaps Coco Crisp from the current Indians, they'll have recouped most of what they lost when Damon departed.  His image may be larger-than-life, but his shoes aren't that hard to fill.  Should the Red Sox make a couple of right moves, the coverage the Damon signing received may be much ado about nothing.

Scott Merkin kills my buzz

In my celebration of the non-tendering of Timo Perez, I didn't catch one line in whitesox.com beat writer Scott Merkin's piece on the arbitration deadline:

Both Harris and Perez, a consummate pinch-hitter, spot starter and strong clubhouse influence on the young Latin players, could re-sign with the White Sox at an adjusted salary.

Scott, Scott, Scott...why did you have to say that?

I'm hoping this is just MLB.com beat writer stuff -- as much as the site preaches objectivity, the official site of the Sox is not where you're going to find critical analysis of their players.

Consummate pinch-hitter?  Well, he did hit slightly better as a pinch hitter, but 4-for-18 is not something to hang one's hat on.  Unless, by "consummate," he means "occasional."  Then that would be absolutely correct.

Spot starter?  Don't remind me. 

Strong clubhouse influence?  The only thing I remember him doing for the clubhouse is bringing home black, XXL rally panties, and that's something you don't want to see catch on.

Truth be told, if he speaks the three languages of the White Sox clubhouse, I would have no problem seeing him in the fold as a coach.  The fact that people have a difficult time writing or saying bad things about Timo in spite of his performances lead me to believe he is a respected individual. 

While the team one won game because of Timo (his game-winning single against the Angels on May 30), they lost at least that many because of him (his ill-fated debut at first base against the Angels on June 1).  And he was the only member of the team who didn't contribute a run or an RBI in the playoffs.

Let's just call him a member of the World Series-winning team and leave it at that, okay Scott?

Frank's still single

When the Twins announced their signing of Rondell White, first I had to remember who he was.

Not that he's a bad player, or easy to forget.  But when I go awhile without hearing his name -- and since he's injury-prone, that happens often -- it takes about 15 seconds for me to differentiate him from Mets outfielder Cliff Floyd.

And I have reason to confuse them -- they're both in each other's top five in Baseball-Reference.com's similarity scores.  They're also both black outfielders who are 34, and both got their start in 1993 for the Montreal Expos.  Both get banged up often, and have played in 150+ games only once in their careers.  Both have played for several teams, and before the 2005 season started, Floyd had 168 career homers, and White 175. 

So after I established who he was -- the guy who barely played half a season last year for the Tigers -- I then realized that Minnesota has pretty much taken itself out of the pool of possible destinations for Frank Thomas.

Thank God.

I still think Frank has some baseball life left in him.  We saw what he did last year, with eight of his first 12 hits leaving the yard -- give him two healthy ankles, and he could put together one more solid season before he's through.

White, on the other hand, while a nice pickup to replace Jacque Jones, isn't Frank Thomas.  He'll hit for a decent average, some power, won't walk a lot, and can't play the field without being a significant injury risk.  Meanwhile, Frank may not hit .250, but he'll walk a lot, hit a good number of homers, and more importantly, he can provide protection to young hitters like Justin Morneau.

White just isn't the same hitter, and I'll be glad to be facing him 19 games a year instead -- if he's able to play that many.

So that basically leaves Oakland as the only possible destination for the Big Hurt, and they'll probably wait awhile to see what happens with Frank's medical tests.  They're the only AL team without a surplus of 1B/3B/DH types, and he fits their "Moneyball" M.O. if he's healthy. 

If Oakland passes on him, then it's not out of the question for Frank to return to Chicago, even if the Sox have to wait until May.  I'm going to keep my fingers crossed for this one, because it would sure be strange to see him stretching out another team's uniform.

He gone!

I'm generally a patient fan.  I try not to call for the heads of coaches or general managers, and I'll generally hold out hope for improved performances.  Jon Garland, Joe Crede, Jose Contreras and Juan Uribe are just a few of the guys who have rewarded me for not giving up on them.

Timo Perez, however, drove me nuts. 

Like this woman whose obituary included the fact that she was glad Cardinals reliever Ray King was traded, mine might've included Tuesday's non-tendering of Timo Perez.  There's still time, actually.

My Timo tirade seems a bit silly in hindsight, with the White Sox winning the World Series and all, but the sight of Timo as anything else except a late-inning defensive replacement for Scott Podsednik enraged me.  He has a decent arm, but besides his ability to speak three languages, there was no use for him.

You'd probably have to go all the way back to Mike Caruso to find a guy who put up less of a fight at the plate.  But even so, Caruso was a second-year guy who played an important defensive position.  Timo was a fourth outfielder (even though he was actually the team's sixth-best outfielder) who still managed to steal nearly 200 PAs, when they could've been better spent developing Brian Anderson.

He slugged under .300.  He couldn't steal bases.  He hit better against righties, but not nearly well enough to create any sort of platoon advantage.  And since he was too old to be sent down or have other excuses made for him, Sox management had to justify his spot on the team with vague phrases referring to mysterious intangibles.

It wasn't all his fault, because Kenny Williams never should've re-signed him for the 2005 season.  He was a defensible acquisition when Magglio Ordonez went down in 2004 because there were no other outfielders in the Sox system who could actually play outfield. 

After the Sox restocked their outfield, that should've been the end of Timo -- but instead, Williams re-signed him to a $1 million contract, and thus he had to see *some* playing time.  It might've been the only real mistake Williams has made in the last 12 months or so. 

So while I feel some remorse for how much Timo angered me, I'm feeling more grateful that I won't see him in a Sox uniform again.

******

Jon Adkins was also a player non-tendered by the Sox.  His 2005 highlight came on Aug. 16 when he ruined what was otherwise a beautifully played, marathon-length battle against the Minnesota Twins by giving up five runs in the top of the 16th.

Willie Harris is the only actual contributor to the World Series team who won't be back next year, and he will be properly memorialized in the "White Sox Eulogies" section starting in February.  Thanks for the single.

Tommy John? Caveat Farmer!

According to the Chicago Tribune, Tommy John is the front-runner for the open spot in the White Sox radio booth.  Aside from the fact that he'd be replacing John Rooney and sitting next to Ed Farmer, I have no clue what this means.  I’ve never heard the guy talk, I don’t recall him being especially quotable, and I have no way to gauge his baseball IQ, although I assume it’s higher than mine.

What I do know doesn’t much relate to broadcasting skills, but we’re just going to have to make do.

What we know about Tommy John

1. He has two first names.  This makes it difficult to write about him, because secondary references always seem so informal.  "John said this," and "John did that."  But I'll cut him some slack, because the name of my state representative in Missouri was John John, and that was just silly.
2. A ligament in his left arm used to be a tendon in his right arm.  Hey, Tommy John Surgery wouldn't be Tommy John Surgery without him.
   
3. His baseball cards are fun to read.  I remember his 1987 Yankees Topps card vividly, because at that point he had already played more than 20 seasons.  And Topps, being the good card company it was, made sure to include stats for every single one of them, even though they had to shrink the font down to 1-point Helvetica.

What we can draw from that

• Farmer has a safety net to work with.  After working with John Rooney for the last 15 years, he might be accustomed to calling the guy next to him "John."  If he slips up, he can pass it off as a casual last-name-only reference that guys do all the time in locker rooms.
• Farmer's kidney transplant won't seem as novel.  Uncle Ed likes to talk about his kidney problems and use the radio booth as a bully pulpit for organ donations.  That's great and all, but it's not like he was the first.  When it comes to transplants with some cachet, I'm going with the guy who had his named after him.  If Farmio can get a kidney transplant renamed "Ed Farmer Surgery," then we'll talk.
• Farmer might find himself deferring an awful lot.  Farmer is awfully confident in his pitching knowledge, but he only pitched for 11 years.  Tommy John was a major-league pitcher for 26 seasons, and logged 4,000 more innings than Farmer did.  Who is the listener going to believe?  What if what Farmer calls a "Missouri Fastball," John calls a "Kansas Heater?"  Should we call it a "Kansas Heater?"  Having graduated from Mizzou, I sure hope not.
  

Some may not take a lot of stock in this analysis, but as far as I can tell, ol' Farmio might have his broadcasting world turned upside-down. 

Contreras vs. Garland: Tale of the Tape

With the addition of Javier Vazquez, the White Sox are now six pitchers deep.  Mark Buehrle, Freddy Garcia and Vazquez are signed through 2007, and Brandon McCarthy is under Sox control for several more years, which means either Jon Garland or Jose Contreras will be the odd man out before, during or after this season.

There's no reason to rush right now, however.  All the positions are set in a satisfactory fashion, and given the amount of innings the team's top four starters piled up, it wouldn't be a bad idea to have an excess pitcher in the hole.

On the other hand, it's not too early to start thinking about which pitcher the Sox would be better off retaining, because Kenny Williams is quick, stealthy and fearless -- like a ninja.  He may trade one of these guys in the next week.  Maybe one of them is already gone, and we don't even know it.  That's how proactive Kenny is.

That being said, let's size these guys up.

Height:
Garland:  6'6"
Contreras:  6'4"
Edge:  GARLAND

Weight:
Garland:  215
Contreras:  245
Edge:  CONTRERAS

Age:
Garland:  26
Contreras:  34(ish)
Edge:  GARLAND

Neck:
Garland:  Thin
Contreras:   Thicker
Edge:  PUSH  Whatever floats your boat.

Acquired by:
Garland:  Fleecing Cubs for Matt Karchner
Contreras:  Fleecing Yankees for Esteban Loaiza
Edge:  PUSH  A few years ago, this would be a definite Garland victory, given that Sox fans had Sosa-for-Bell rubbed in their faces.  Now, that doesn't matter so much, and the Sox weakened a league opponent by stealing Contreras from New York.

Repertoire:
Garland:  Low-90s fastball, sinker, improved changeup, so-so curve
Contreras:  Mid-90s fastball, one of the league's best splitters, not much of a slider or change
Edge:  CONTRERAS  His splitter almost looks wet, it's that nasty, and he finally figured out how to drive major-league hitters crazy with it.  Garland looks hittable, but if his sharpened control is here to stay this is worth re-evaluating.

Control:
Garland:  Improved, let's hope it stays.
Contreras:  Not great, but can use wildness to his advantage.
Edge:  GARLAND  Contreras is still a risk to lose the plate during any given start, and he was among league leaders in wild pitches. 

Defense:
Garland:  Excellent, and he can hold runners.
Contreras:  Pass.
Edge:  GARLAND  Garland fields his position with the best of them, and runners were less successful on him than they were on Mark Buehrle.  As far as holding baserunners goes, Contreras ignored them in the second half and was better off for it.  It's that bad.

Backstory:
Garland:  Nonchalant Californian finally gets his act together.
Contreras:  Survived one dictatorship (Castro), then another (Steinbrenner). 
Edge:  CONTRERAS  Garland received an unfair amount of criticism for just going through growing pains as a pitcher, but Contreras had to go a couple years without seeing his family, and that's a bigger deal.

Pitching coach away from pitching coach:
Garland:  Mark Buehrle
Contreras:  El Duque
Edge:  GARLAND   The more charismatic of the Cubans kept Contreras loose, and Buehrle helped Garland to work faster.  But, you know, El Duque's gone now.

Contracts reportedly rejected:
Garland:  3 years, $24 million
Contreras:  3 years, $24 million
Edge:  PUSH

Eventual cost of services:
Garland:  More
Contreras:  Less
Edge:  CONTRERAS  Less is more.

Best case scenario:
Garland:  Garland repeats what he did in 2005.
Contreras:  Contreras wins 20 games and finishes with a sub-3.00 ERA.
Edge:  CONTRERAS 

Worst case scenario:
Garland:  Returns to previous life as league-average pitcher.
Contreras:  Loses control, needs stopover in Charlotte, doesn't want to come back. 
Edge:  GARLAND

Most similar pitcher according to Baseball-Reference.com:
Garland: Carl Pavano
Contreras:  Cliff Lee
Edge:  CONTRERAS  Pavano is the posterboy for overpaid pitchers with decent control.  Lee got Cy Young votes last year.

Injury history:
Garland:  None
Contreras:  None
Edge:  PUSH

Did Ed Farmer scout him?
Garland:  Yes
Contreras:  No
Edge:  CONTRERAS  With John Rooney now in St. Louis, Farmer takes over primary play-by-play duties this year.  Those who never heard that Farmer saw Garland pitch as a high schooler in California will learn that fact again, and again, and again...

X-factor:
Garland:  After years of being classified as "soft," Garland looked awfully tough in 2005.  If he keeps it up, he's Brad Radke or better.  If not, he's another Kris Benson.
Contreras:  Contreras is 34, an age in which power pitchers usually start their decline.  But Contreras only got better as the year went on, so we'll see which way he goes.

Prospects, schmrospects

To Kenny Williams, Major League Baseball must look like one big free agent market.

The only difference is instead of paying inflated prices with cash, he uses prospects as his currency.  No GM is more aggressive than Williams when it comes to dipping into the farm system, but it’s difficult to argue with the results.

On Wednesday, Kenny Williams acquired Vazquez and $4-5 million for Hernandez, Vizcaino and center fielder prospect Chris Young.  Chances are, the only player they’ll miss is Young.

Despite his playoff heroics, El Duque is done as a starter, and not many relievers are worth the $4.5 million he’d receive.  Vizcaino is a fungible piece -- as a righty reliever with two mediocre pitches, he can be easily replaced.

On the other hand, Young put up a tremendous offensive season at AA Birmingham, which is one of the toughest parks for hitters in the entire minor leagues.  He hit 26 homers, slugged .545 and played Gold Glove-level defense according to scouts.  He might’ve had the highest ceiling of any of their touted outfield prospects, not only including current ones like Brian Anderson, Ryan Sweeney and Jerry Owens, but Joe Borchard and Jeremy Reed as well.

But Williams has shown time and time again that if players haven’t contributed at the AAA level, they’re fair game, so there’s no real point in agonizing over a player that wasn’t going to contribute until 2007. 

Instead, Williams uses prospects to acquire proven major league talent for below-market prices.  He traded for Freddy Garcia for prospects including Reed, and signed Garcia to a three-year, $27 million deal – absolutely enviable in this market.  Jim Thome brings the Sox left-handed power they haven’t seen since Robin Ventura left, and because the Sox gave up two pitching prospects, he’s only costing them $24 million over three years.  On the open market, Thome might cost $11 or $12 million over that length of time. 

Carl Everett, Juan Uribe and Carl Everett (the second time) were acquired as well using prospects, and Gary Majewski’s the only one that has experienced any sort of success.

He may get burned from time to time (Hi, Todd Ritchie!), but it’s looking like an increasingly smart way to do business, especially when considering that A.J. Burnett is getting $55 million even with a below-.500 lifetime record.  

There have been some exceptions – and let’s cross our fingers for Jim Thome – but the players Williams has acquired in the past couple of years via this method have either been entering their primes or enjoying them.  Some primes are shorter than others, like Carl Everett’s, but Williams doesn’t take on age risks the way the Yankees and other teams do.  

Thome once again aside, Williams doesn’t acquire injury risks.  Garcia, Uribe and Jose Contreras had been inconsistent performers, but they were at least durable before joining the Sox.  Williams can’t guarantee they’ll stay that way, with David Wells and Billy Koch as examples, but he tries to assure performance certainty as well as he assures cost certainty for his employers.

Vazquez has underachieved for a couple of solid years, but he automatically becomes the team’s best strikeout pitcher – no other White Sox pitcher has topped 200 K’s in a season – Vazquez has done it twice, including racking up 241 of them only three years ago.  He also improved his walk rate, so he could be a slight tweak and some improved defense away from contending for a Cy Young.  

Best part is, he’s only costing the Sox $19.5M over the next two years when he could’ve easily earned $24M on the open market.  And the Sox have control over him through 2008 because by demanding a trade, he lost free agent rights for a year.  The Sox have four pitchers set for their 2007 rotation, and all of them are earning less than what other teams would give them.

Pitching coach Don Cooper turned Jose Contreras from a head case into a workhorse.  Now you’re giving him a pitcher who has already been an ace at the major league level.  I think we’re going to like the results. 

Cooperstown-bound

Living as far outside of Chicago as I do, there isn't a lot of visible evidence that the White Sox won the World Series.  The only thing that I see that reminds me of such an event are the copies of the newspapers I've saved, and the hat and shirts I wear on weekends.

However, my latest visit to the Baseball Hall of Fame provided me with plenty of proof -- it was literally waiting outside for me. 

The whole atmosphere was different.  Standing outside the gift shop entrance, White Sox stuff was all that you could see.  World Series hats, t-shirts, posters, pins, media guides, DVDs, even Monopoly boards, all bearing that handsome Sox logo.  Instead of hearing the Dropkick Murphy's "Tessie" playing during the credits of the Boston Red Sox's World Series DVD, visitors were rewarded with the smooth baritone of GM Kenny Williams, describing the construction of the White Sox team that brought a championship team to Chicago for the first time in 88 years.

The previous three times I had visited Cooperstown since I moved to upstate New York, the White Sox were one of the less popular teams.  Aside from a couple stores with vintage Pale Hose hats and one store that carries two mint-condition seats from Old Comiskey that I'd love to bring down in price about $200, there's not much there.  Doesn't stop me from looking every single time, however.

To see all this Sox merchandise in one area outside of Bridgeport nearly brought a tear to my eye.  But it would have to wait until I saw the exhibit, which didn't disappoint.  Game-worn jerseys and vials of dirt don't do much for me, but it was fun to examine Scott Podsednik's and Geoff Blum's bats to try to identify which mark the game-winning homer left behind.  I think I found it on Blum's, but I'll have to take another look at Podsednik's when I go again.

Joe Crede's glove -- AKA "Where RBI singles go to die" -- looked like it'd been around the block a few times, as oiled-up and well-worn as some of the decades-old mitts we have around the house.  Hopefully he's got the new one oiled up, stuffed with a baseball, rubber-banded and stuffed underneath his mattress, because we'll need that kind of play next year. 

Returning to the gift shop, I picked up a poster and the DVD, which was hard not to watch as it played on the store's televisions.  Williams, Ozzie Guillen, A.J. Pierzynski, Aaron Rowand and others were all talking about "grinding it out" and "playing the game the right way" -- cliches I absolutely cringed at before the season started. 

Now I can't help but smile when I hear them, kind of like a cheesy song that's too fun to not sing, and sing loudly.  Maybe that's why the team adopted "Don't Stop Believin'" as its theme song. 

I'm just glad they didn't choose "Copacabana."

Over the hill, still rolling along

Julio Franco just signed a two-year deal with the New York Mets today, which makes me think back to his days with the White Sox.

Franco joined the White Sox at age 35, and he played very, very well.  His rates (.319/406/.510) were tremendous, and at his pace, he would've knocked in 141 runs over a full season. 

It was a career season for Franco, but it's not the easiest thing to remember.  Partially because it was at a time where a bunch of different players came in and made solid and sometimes spectacular contributions in a short amount of time, but it's mostly because IT WAS 11 YEARS AGO.

That was way back in 1994, the strike-shortened season that ended with the White Sox at 67-45 and in first place.  Now Franco is 46 (he'll turn 47 less than a month into the season), and he's locked up through age 48.  Unbelievable.

Then again, it isn't that hard to believe if you think back to that season with the Sox.  Even though that 1994 season was only 112 games long, he still set a career high in RBI with 98, fifth-best in the league.  His 20 home runs were also the most he hit in a season, and he would've set personal bests in slugging percentage and walks.  Not to mention he was also just one point shy of his best OBP.

Frank Thomas also had his best season in 1994 (a .729 slugging percentage!), and that was at age 26.  The Big Hurt continued to have MVP-caliber seasons through age 29, which is generally the prime for most players who get an early enough start.

However, Franco had his best season five years or so after the average player has his.  A normal player has his best seasons in his late 20s and plays until he's 40.  Franco's career is playing like a bell curve that's stretched out.  His entered the majors in his early 20s, he peaked at age 35, and now he's winding down his career in his late 40s.  Proportionally speaking, it makes perfect sense!

Franco stands at just over 2,500 career hits, and given that he's not likely to get more than 200 ABs in a season playing behind Carlos Delgado in Queens, he has no shot at making it to 3,000.  But the longer he continues to play and play well (he had an above-average OPS last year), the more he merits entry into the Hall of Fame even if he doesn't make it to that magic milestone.

The Hall of Fame isn't a Hall of Milestones.  It takes stats into account first, but also the impact a player makes greatly helps or hinders his chances.  That's why Kirby Puckett is in there and Albert Belle isn't, even though it should be the other way around when you look at performance (and also Puckett's history of domestic violence, which didn't come out until after he was inducted). 

The longer Franco makes valuable contributions to a team, the more he becomes a legitimate Hall of Fame candidate.  Sure, most of the other Hall members would blow his numbers out of the water if they could keep contributing into their late 40s, but the fact is they didn't.  No offensive player has helped teams at Franco's age, and Satchel Paige might be the only pitcher who can match him at age 46. 

Almost every other baseball player in history has been coaching, golfing, boating or doing other things after age 45.  Meanwhile, Franco's still waggling the bat over his head like he was as a batting champ in 1991 (he was a fresh-faced 31 at that time).  That's almost as admirable as 3,000 hits, and historically more unique.  Look at his age comparison list on Baseball-Reference.com.  None of those guys played consistently from ages 43-46 -- most of them didn't play at all, and are only on the list because they had an at-bat later in their career!

Franco's career is definitely a case of quantity over quality, something that doesn't get most players into the Hall.  But if players get special consideration because their careers were cut short, why shouldn't a player get special consideration for extending their high-quality career an extraordinary length of time?  Most HOFers are known for incredible peaks.  In Franco's case, his decline is what's awesome, and that should carry some special weight as well.

Blowing smoke

Two acquisitions that were rumored to happen never did this week -- Juan Pierre is not going to the White Sox, and Trevor Hoffman is not the new Indians closer.

Florida sent the speedy center fielder to the Cubs instead for two high-quality minor-league pitchers and Sergio Mitre, and Hoffman remained with the San Diego Padres.

The Sox were fortunate about the first move, not so much about the latter.  As mentioned before, Pierre was never a good fit for the Sox, and a Hoffman acquisition would've run against everything the Indians have done right so far.

In Hoffman's place, big Bob Wickman will come waddling out of the bullpen for the ninth inning once again for the Tribe, fending off retirement for one more year with a $5 million deal.  In the short-term, this will benefit the Sox -- Wickman wasn't as good as his 45 saves may suggest, and two out of his five blown saves came against the White Sox, against whom he had a 10.38 ERA in five appearances in 2005.

In the long-term, however, the Indians are better off.  Should Wickman struggle, the Indians can see how Fernando Cabrera fares in the closer role.  If he succeeds, the Indians have a cheap closer for years to come and $7 million extra to spend on addressing their weaknesses for the next three seasons, because Wickman will be off the books after 2006, and Hoffman will have never been on them. 

The Indians are built just like the Sox -- solid starting pitching, a deep bullpen, and quality players at nearly every position.  They're just younger, cheaper, and entering their prime.

Kenny rolling

Kenny Williams continues to make the right moves. The pickup of Rob Mackowiak is even better than the suggested Burroughs pickup. Mackowiak is a versatile player who did very well for Pittsburgh in a utility role. He'll thrive with the Southsiders, one because he is one and two because he fits the mold of their offense. As much as the "grinder" word gets thrown around a little too much, Mackowiak is one. He batted .272 last year with 9 HR's and 58 RBIs and he played all over in 140 games. The Sox won't miss a beat when Crede's back aches or one of the outfielders needs a rest.

The offset of this trade is the departure of Damaso Marte. Lefthanded relievers that throw hard are highly valued and one might wonder if the Sox could've gotten more for Marte if they decided that he needed to go following his clashes with Ozzie. Under the right scenario... Marte could be a really good setup man or even a closer.

I'd rate this trade as even.

JIM:  Mackowiak's a better player than Sean Burroughs, but Burroughs would've cost less.  Proportionally, it's about the same trade, and how you like it is based on where your priorities lie for 200 ABs.  If you want a player who has the potential to be above-average in that spot, then you have to deal some major-league talent.  If you want somebody who can only hold the fort down for short stretches but anything more is unnecessary, then Burroughs might be your man in relation to the minor-league player surrendered.

Personally, I like this trade a lot.  Mackowiak provides average defense at lots of positions, playing every position except catcher and shortstop.  If Crede needs an extended DL trip, Mackowiak could fill in just as well -- they have the same OPS+ over their careers. 

Best of all -- if he bats left-handed and plays the outfield, you know who's expendable?  Timo!  The only thing that made Timo Perez even the slightest bit valuable was the fact that he was left-handed (though given the way he hit, I think he might be a confused righty).  Now that Mackowiak's there, he can play all three outfield positions (Timo could only man a corner) and pinch-hit against righties, rendering Timo useless -- though he pretty much was before.  It still remains to be seen whether Timo will actually be sent packing, but it definitely improves those chances.

Marte might be missed, but he was lucky to get out of most innings alive last year -- in 45.3 innings, he allowed 81 baseunners!  How his ERA wasn't higher than 3.77, I have no idea.  There's a possibility he could rebound to his 2003 performance, but at least it won't come at the expense of the White Sox if that happens.  They'll only face the Pirates three times next year.  Pirates-Brewers games should be interesting to watch next year because Marte loathes Carlos Lee, and nearly started a spring training brawl by plunking him last year.  There's 19 chances of that happening next year.

Williams! S(nag) Burroughs!

One player I am hoping Kenny Williams might pick up during the winter GM meetings is San Diego third baseman Sean Burroughs.  The former first-round draft pick has been a disappointment for the Padres, who expected him to be a fixture at the hot corner for years to come, but has shown a complete lack of power at the major league level.  He has 11 for his career, but only one in 284 at-bats last season.

Given that the Friars acquired Vinny Castilla and World Series Clutch Superstar Geoff Blum, it looks like Burroughs is on his way out -- and with the Sox in need of a backup third baseman, he would be an apt fit.  Unfortunately, USA Today is reporting that Burroughs is headed to Tampa Bay for another first-round bust, Dewon Brazelton. 

It's not a done deal, and given the way trades never seem to go as rumored, perhaps Kenny still has time.  He was able to acquire Blum from San Diego last year for a minor-league roster-filler (Ryan Meaux), so it's not unreasonable that he could bring in another Padre for nothing special in return. 

Why get worked up about a flameout?  So far, despite his power, Burroughs has hit .282 over his career, which would be an asset on the bench especially since he hits lefty.  Last year, the only left-handed reserve was Timo Perez, so Burroughs would provide an automatic upgrade just by sitting still for a majority of the games.  He also provides a solid glove and above-average speed, so he'd be useful in pinch-running situations as well.

Best yet is that he's only 25, and his situation reminds me of one guy Kenny Williams got for nothing and has been worth something -- Juan Uribe.  Uribe had only hit 24 homers over three seasons in that hitter's haven they call Coors Field as a member of the Colorado Rockies, and the Rockies were looking to deal him due to his disappointing numbers as well as disagreements over Uribe's claim that the team didn't do enough to accommodate Hispanic players, with only one Hispanic coach on the staff. 

Williams picked him up in exchange for the replacement-level Aaron Miles, as Uribe was worth a look alone for his defense.  As it turns out, his offense wasn't half-bad either.  He nearly matched his career total in his first year with the Sox, hitting 23 homers.  He hit 15 last year, and looked to be turning a corner as the season came to a close.  Kenny got a tremendous glove, an even better arm and a decent bat for a minor-league second baseman because he's willing to take chances on undervalued/underachieving players. 

Burroughs might just be a singles-hitting third baseman with solid defense, nothing more.  But he seems like the kind of player that has paid dividends for the White Sox in the past, and Williams wouldn't have to part with much to get him.   Look at it this way -- if Burroughs makes no improvement whatsoever, he's still better than what the Sox already have.

Good riddance to a good guy

Cross one more Sox killer off the list.

After 17 years and 2,239 hits, John Olerud is taking his sweet swing and fielding helmet and riding off into the sunset.  Olerud can look back on his career and call himself a class act, a batting champ, a Gold Glover, an All-Star, and a royal pain in the ass for the White Sox.

During the regular season, he put up a below-average (for his career) line of .277/.379/.438, but come playoff time, the Sox could not get him out.  And of course, he was always there, playing on the opposing team during the South Siders' last three playoff appearances (Toronto in 1993, Seattle in 2000, Boston in 2005). 

In 39 total at-bats against the Sox in October, Olerud went 13-for-19 with eight walks and was hit twice, resulting in a .589 OBP.  The Sox were finally able to win a playoff series in 2005 despite a typical Olerud effort -- he had two hits and two walks in six ABs in the 2005 ALDS, but evidently the third time's the charm.

Those Seattle teams in the early '00s were hell to face with Ichiro, Edgar Martinez and John Olerud at the plate, usually in the same inning, but you couldn't say a bad thing about any of those guys.  All three were fun to watch, and easy to admire even when they were ripping your hearts out.  Good luck to John Olerud, and let's hope he stays in the game in some capacity.

Smoke signals

The annual GM winter meetings began yesterday, and Kenny Williams' job is as easy as they get.  He already achieved his two biggest tasks, re-signing Paul Konerko and acquiring Jim Thome to replace Carl Everett as the team's primary DH. 

What's left?  Perhaps another bullpen arm, and definitely a backup third baseman to pick up Joe Crede.  But by jumping the gun on acquiring a big-name slugger, Williams can stay out of the bidding wars and look for spare parts, which has traditionally been his strength.

Williams will also be able to keep an eye on the Cleveland Indians and their GM, Mark Shapiro.  Shapiro won the Executive of the Year Award last year despite Kenny's Sox winning it all, but it truly could've gone either way.  Shapiro has gone about building a contender differently, as the Tribe rid itself of its stars and went with the kids.  The plan has gone to perfection, and now Shapiro's in a position to pick and choose the players he needs to fill in the few gaps the team has. 

With Kevin Millwood departing for greener pastures, the Indians are close to acquiring Paul Byrd.  A one-year, $7 million contract for Millwood paid dividends last year, and the Tribe is trying to go the same route by offering the ex-Angels pitcher a two year, $14.25 million deal -- perhaps a bit pricey for Cleveland's budget, but still cheaper than the going rate. 

Millwood, a former 20-game winner, came cheap because he had disappointed with the Phillies the previous two season.  If this deal holds, the Tribe would also be getting a great deal on Byrd, an innings-eater who can win 15 games, not to mention boasts a decent track record against the White Sox.  Byrd is 35 and has been on the DL four times, but the Indians' ledger does not offer a lot of room for error.  Similar to the White Sox, they take on injury and character risks in order to save money, and generally both teams have benefited from their strategy.

Signing Byrd would be an excellent decision.  Their next rumored move is not one I'm more excited about -- as a Sox fan. 

Ken Rosenthal reports the Indians are close to signing Padres closer Trevor Hoffman to a three-year deal worth $21-24 million.  That is a LOT of money to spend on

1) bolstering a bullpen that already had the best ERA in the majors, and
2) a closer who will pitch half to a third of the innings of the starter that the team just signed for less money.

Hoffman, 38, had a typical Trevor Hoffman season in San Diego, saving 43 games and posting a sub-3.00 ERA.  But $8 million for a pitcher who will be over the hill by the end of the contract, and is moving from an extreme pitcher's park to boot?  That seems like a knee-jerk reaction to find a "proven closer" when the team has done an outstanding job of finding their solutions from within the organization.

And there is a solution in the organization.  His name is Fernando Cabrera, and he posted a 1.47 ERA and struck out nearly a batter an inning over 30 innings.  Sure, there's always the issue of handing over the closer role to a rookie, but it sure didn't hurt the White Sox last year with Bobby Jenks, nor the Oakland Athletics, whose rookie closer Huston Street won Rookie of the Year.

At the very least, the Indians could've tried Cabrera in the closer role at the start of the season and plan for a trade if it doesn't work out.  With a slew of back-of-the-rotation pitching prospects, I'm sure a closer could be had without mortgaging any more of the future.

If Hoffman signs, he'll make a tough Indians bullpen even tougher.  But when as promising an option is waiting in the wings, that kind of money could have been used to shore up a corner outfield position, which is the only weak link the team has.  Shapiro has done everything right so far, but as a long rebuilding project is coming to fruition, it looks like he may have jumped the gun on this one.

No room for Pierre

"Where would he play?"

Once the rallying cry of a denial-ridden Hawk Harrelson when the Sox were struggling for runs in August and September and a number of available hitters could've helped us out, we can actually put it to good use in the case of Juan Pierre.

The name of the speedy Marlins' center fielder has been tied to the White Sox in numerous hot stove columns.  A few examples:

Phil Rogers:  "Even if Williams finds a way to add Juan Pierre as a second leadoff man, it wouldn't be as bad as standing pat would have been. Pierre could be a one-year rental, here only to help the White Sox's chances of a repeat."

Again, Phil Rogers:  "But it's possible the White Sox could still pursue a trade for Marlins center fielder Juan Pierre.  Williams has downplayed the White Sox' possible interest in Pierre, the speedy, savvy center fielder being dangled by the Florida Marlins, and it's really the only position he can take publicly."

Um....Phil Rogers:   "The Marlins apparently are awaiting Johnny Damon's signing before shopping Pierre. The White Sox have a better chance to get him than the Cubs because GM Jim Hendry is not going to part with the minor-leaguers Florida wants the most -- Felix Pie, Matt Murton and Rich Hill."

Okay, it's more than Phil Rogers who's tying the two names together.  Other papers in Chicago are doing it, as are national sports sites like ESPN.com and CNNSI.com.  But it's always fun to read Rogers' columns, because...well, he's no longer the source of trade rumors that he once was.  I'm trying to put it nicely because he's not malicious or hamfisted, and he certainly seems like a decent enough individual from what I've read and heard over the years.  Plainly put, the number of factual errors per column are increasing as the years go by, and his trade rumors make less and less sense -- it's like he's reading the same media guides year after year.

On the positive side, Williams has shot down these trade rumors on record, which has me praying for the first time that he actually means what he says.  Normally, he's making bombastic claims about grinders and how he'll overpay to make the team better, and I'm trying to find rhetoric dials to turn down. 

Pierre isn't only a bad fit -- he's an awful fit.  To put it another way, he would be of no value to the Sox. 

Perhaps to other organizations, he could be a nice piece of the puzzle.  Take the Cubs for instance.  Last year, they needed 1) a center fielder, and 2) a leadoff hitter.  Pierre could fill both roles and help Dusty-proof the lineup along the way.  No more Neifi, Korey, Macias and their sub-.300 OBPs starting off the game.  He's by no means a great center fielder -- his speed might make up for bad jumps, but not his arm -- but the small center field in Wrigley would cover up some of his flaws.

That's not the case with the White Sox.  Acquiring Juan Pierre would give them...well...two Scott Podsedniks. 

While I've been hard on Pods this past year, he brings something to the table -- top of the order speed (which he could use more wisely), an above-average OBP and average LF defense.  But his lack of power, his noodle arm and his propensity to get thrown out on the basepaths can't be duplicated.  We're good with one Pods.

Yes, putting the two base thieves 1-2 at the top of the order would give the team a lot of speed.  It'd also give the team little chance of hitting the ball out of the infield in the first two at-bats, and there'd be plenty of caught-stealings as well. 

Here's a scary thought:  Pods hit more homers in 2004 than Pierre has in his entire career.

An even scarier thought is the defense.  Both tend to run the wrong way at the crack of the bat -- Pods' flaw was minimized in left, but one of them would be exposed in a major way having to man center.  And as far as throwing arms are concerned, it might be a better idea to have Man Soo Lee and Art Kusyner come out of the bullpen with a water balloon slingshot on balls to the warning track than to have either Pods or Pierre try throwing the ball in.

Sportswriters like Rogers probably prefer speedy players because triples, stolen bases and hit-and-runs are fun to watch and to write about.  But the White Sox didn't win because of their speed last year nearly as much as they did with pitching and defense.  The pitching will be there, but the defense will have to hold up its end.

Giving Brian Anderson the starting job would give the Sox the kind of fundamental edge they enjoyed last year.   Anderson may not cover the ground like Rowand right away, but that's not knocking the rookie as much as it is praising Rowand.  Anderson is a natural center fielder with a very strong arm, so he'll be able to help the team if he gets the playing time.  He may not light the world on fire with his bat next year, but the Sox can afford to bat him at the bottom of the order while he makes his way around the league.

The Sox won last year while starting a rookie at second base and hitting him second.  I'm sure they could easily survive starting a capable defensive rookie in center and batting him last.  Williams learned the power of patience last year when there were moves he could've made -- here's hoping he'll give it another try in what should be a far more comfortable situation.

The New Deal

There are deals like the one Paul Konerko signed Wednesday (five years, $60 million) that can make some people call it perfectly acceptable, others call it completely stupid, and both sides can be right.

Five years is a lot to give a guy who’s 30 and runs like he’s 40.  $60 million is a lot to pay for a player who will likely never come close to taking home an MVP (not the postseason variety).

This deal’s beauty is in the eye of the beholder.  Fans of long-term planning will call it foolish, while win-now types are beginning to think of a repeat.  Given Konerko’s age, his skills and his propensity to get into prolonged slumps, it’s reasonable to think that the next five years will look like this:

Year 1:  Great deal
Year 2:  Good deal
Year 3:  Ruh roh
Year 4:  He’s getting $12 million?
Year 5:  How do we trade this?

Konerko’s production could easily vary from this.  In the second half last year, he batted .323 and posted an OPS over 1.000.  But he’s also a guy who struggled to stay above the Mendoza line for 80 games at a time in the past.  We should expect .270, a fair amount of walks and 35 homers, but for how much he’s getting paid, it’d be great to feel more sure about it.

There are a few things that we can be sure about, and whether or not you’re a fan of the deal, you’d have to agree.

1)      This deal makes the Rowand-Thome trade better:  If the Sox acquired Thome and let Konerko walk, Thome would have to replace Konerko’s production.  That would be foolish – the Sox would be lucky for Thome to match Konerko’s hitting given his back problems.

But with Konerko returning, all Thome has to do is hit better than Carl Everett last year, and that shouldn’t be hard.  Everett only had 17 extra-base hits in the second half of the season as the team’s full-time DH.  Thome can do that.  If he’s healthy, Thome should hit 17 homers in a half alone, if not more.

2)      Konerko won’t be blocking any prospects:  The only first baseman worth a look in the minors is Casey Rogowski.  But when you consider that he’s a left-handed, light-hitting first baseman (nine homers in 500+ ABs) who’s a little old for his current level (24 in AA ball), he looks a lot like somebody the Sox already have on the roster:  Ross Gload.  Good plate patience, though.

3)      It wouldn’t be smart to trade more prospects:  Replacement first basemen such as Milwaukee’s Lyle Overbay or Washington’s Nick Johnson might’ve been had via a trade, but the Sox had already dealt from their deeper positions – low-level pitchers and center fielders.  With a lack of infield depth in the organization and a need for homegrown arms when Jon Garland and Mark Buehrle need to be paid, they can’t afford to sell the farm.

That being said, there are some major caveats.  The Sox have $80 million tied up in plodding first baseman/DH types, which may pose a problem when Garland and Buehrle need new contracts.

Thome’s health is also a concern, and the Sox could be in the same situation next season because of it:  Konerko forced to play first, and a sub-par hitter manning the DH spot.  I’d feel comfortable if Gload received more at-bats last season to see if his quality 2004 was for real, and that’s perhaps the only time when Ozzie Guillen dropped the ball last year.

I’m slightly disappointed by the deal.  I would’ve preferred Konerko to only receive four years, even if he was paid at a slightly higher rate.  Something like $52 million.  But while I’m not exactly comfortable, I think it’s justifiable.

There are no remaining holes for the Sox to fill.  They can concentrate on picking up one more bullpen arm, a fourth outfielder, a reserve infielder.  All minor areas where Kenny Williams is usually able to find some gems. 

And, should they enjoy a similar sort of success in 2006 – not necessarily winning the World Series again, but at least making the playoffs – they may be in a situation where their revenue shoots through the roof, putting the franchise in a better situation to absorb a large contract.

It’s easy to look far ahead when talking about a deal this expensive and this long, but in this case it’s better off taking it a year at a time.  If Thome’s healthy and Konerko keeps up what he’s doing, 2006 is looking awfully bright.