Real offseason decision No. 1: Toby Hall

Last year, Kenny Williams didn't have much work cut out for him at the very beginning of the offseason.  The decisions were swift:
  • Watch Darin Erstad go.
  • Watch Mike Myers go.
  • Re-sign Juan Uribe, but not to his original extension.
The trade for Orlando Cabrera made the Uribe decision seem redundant at the time, but even that one was justified.

Williams has his share of gimmes this time around, and to tear through them briefly:

Orlando Cabrera:  Williams will offer Cabrera arbitration; Cabrera will reject it and test the free agent market as the premier shortstop.  Some team will sign him (Minnesota?) and the Sox will have two extra draft picks at their disposal, as he likely maintained his Type A free agent status.

Ken Griffey:  The Sox will exercise the buyout ($4 million, with Cincinnati throwing in half).  Although there will be no draft picks, the Sox will benefit from never giving Ozzie Guillen the option of penciling him into center field for another game.

Joe Crede:  Offering arbitration is not necessary, as Crede won't even be a Type B free agent.  That will save a headache, if you remember the acrimony surrounding the decision to not offer arbitration to Magglio Ordonez after the 2004 season thanks to his knee injury.

Horacio Ramirez:  Har.

But there are three decisions that aren't so easy.  Let's take 'em one at a time.

*************

Difficult decision: Toby Hall

Two routes:
  1. Exercise his one-year option for $2.25 million.
  2. Buy him out for $150,000 and look for a new backup catcher.
Why keep Hall?

The last three years have illustrated that getting a competent backup catcher isn't as easy at it seems.  Putting another year on the trusty backup catcher chart, Hall posted the best OPS for the position since 2005:



Compared to Chris Widger, Gustavo Molina, Sandy Alomar Jr. and one-armed Toby Hall, the two-armed version was a marked improvement, even if still below-average -- especially considering he more than held up his end against lefties.

Hall hit southpaws to the tune of .377/.411/509 over 56 at-bats, with more homers (2) than strikeouts (1).  Even while his overall numbers took a nosedive in the second half, he had seven hits in 21 at-bats when the match-up was in his favor.

He also saw significant improvements in his catcher's ERA (3.68, compared to 6.12 in 2007) and his caught stealing rate (17 percent, up from 10), which isn't awful.

The Sox don't really have anybody else, as Cole Armstrong is still a season away at the very least.  And even if you don't like Hall, it's hard to say he was much of a problem.  The Sox went 22-14 when he started, a near reversal of his 2007 record.  Perhaps they played better because his teammates were hoping for one of his delightful pies.



The case against Hall

A.J. Pierzynski is 31 years old and has a two-year extension ahead of him, and yet his plate appearances keep shooting up.  He set a record for plate appearances while catching more than 130 games for the third consecutive year.  Not surprisingly, he went into a major slump at the end of the year.

Hall isn't helping lighten Pierzynski's workload much, mainly because he's so miserable against righties.  He posted a .431 OPS in such situations, including a .321 OPS after the break (.133/188/.133 in 30 ABs).  God forbid a foul tip ever catch Pierzynski the wrong way, because the Sox would likely receive zero production in his absence.

And one full year after the shoulder injury, he still had trouble generating extra-base power.  Part of it was due to his inside-out swing that is built to dump singles to right field, but he lost out on a handful of doubles because he couldn't outrun a glacier.  Paul Konerko grows impatient watching him.

He's part of the reason why the Sox struggle against the turf teams (Minnesota, Toronto, Tampa Bay).  He can't turn deep gappers into doubles easily, and he can't throw runners out unless he gets a lot of help from the pitcher.

So what to do?

There's actually an OK crop of backup catchers out there, with a few interesting buy-low candidates like Javier Valentin, Josh Bard and David Ross.  But Bard is an offense-first catcher who stopped hitting (his rate against basestealers is worse than Hall's, although Padres pitchers are more indifferent to runners than even Sox pitchers), and Valentin and Ross both lost their jobs on a bad Cincinnati ballclub.

Below them are guys like, well, Paul Phillips.  That wouldn't help, either.

Everybody else would cost more than Hall's $2.25 million salary (especially adding the $150,000 it'd take to buy out Hall in the first place).  So I see the Sox picking up his option, citing the way he handles the pitching staff and his antics as clown prince of the dugout.

Perhaps one more year off his shoulder injury coinciding with a contract year will show Sox fans they haven't seen the best of him yet.  Chances are he'll make Pierzynski the most valuable member of the club for a third straight year, so hold your breath that he survives.

The autumn of their lives

As we continue our post-party cleanup, here are a couple notes on some hitters who didn't ... you know, hit.

First, Paul Konerko wants to be in better shape:

"That's the first time I can say [my body wore down] after 14 professional seasons. So when I go into the off-season, I'm not really worried about my swing or that kind of stuff. I'm more concerned about when it comes to the injury and body stuff that happens."

"I want to get in better shape and control the things I can control because I'm getting older (32), and it snuck up on me."

And if you can weed more dogpiling on Orlando Cabrera, there's a bit about Nick Swisher:

After the 6-2 loss to the Rays, general manager Ken Williams stopped at Swisher's locker, gave him a hug and said, ''Come back next year and start all over again.''

The Cheat filters out the extracurricular stuff for a nice summary of Orlando Cabrera's Sox career.

That said, let's take a quick look at how much you should trust my preseason projections when it comes to offense:

Brian Anderson


Brian Anderson
AB HR RBI
BA
OBP SLG OPS
2008 JCM
140
1
9 .248 .302 .378 .680
2008 Actual
181
8
26 .232 .272 .436 .708

How wrong was I? The development of some power against lefties was a pleasant surprise, but his on-base skills took a hit.

Orlando Cabrera

Orlando Cabrera
AB HR RBI
BA
OBP SLG OPS
2008 JCM
610
10
61 .279 .329 .394 .723
2008 Actual
661
8
57 .281 .334 .371 .705

How wrong was I?  I thought he'd be able to more or less maintain his power numbers while moving to a smaller ballpark, but he ended up with two fewer extra-base hits in 23 more at-bats.  But I think this is close enough to call good.  That's two.

Joe Crede

Joe Crede
AB HR RBI
BA
OBP SLG OPS
2008 JCM
488
14
53 .249 .295 .439 .734
2008 Actual
335
17
55 .248 .314 .460 .774

How wrong was I?  He Linebrinked me, playing well for the first half and not extending an injury-aided decline longer than advised.  He was an All-Star, after all.  That seems like a long time ago.

Jermaine Dye

Jermaine Dye
AB HR RBI
BA
OBP SLG OPS
2008 JCM
498
27
84 .265 .337 .511 .848
2008 Actual
59034
96 .292 .344 .541 .885

How wrong was I?  Just a flat-out underestimation across the board -- health, power (he had 41 doubles!) and ability to hit for an average.  I'm getting colder.

Toby Hall

Toby Hall
AB HR RBI
BA
OBP SLG OPS
2008 JCM
145
4
17 .256 .302 .373 .675
2008 Actual 1272
7 .260 .304 .331 .635

How wrong was I?  I thought he'd regain more power -- while he hit two homers, he only had one more extra base hit (five) in 11 more at-bats.  I'm not going to give myself this one being off 42 points of slugging.

Paul Konerko

Paul Konerko
AB HR RBI
BA
OBP SLG OPS
2008 JCM
520
29
90 .281 .361 .502 .863
2008 Actual 43822
62 .240 .344 .438 .782

How wrong was I?  Pretty wrong.

Pablo Ozuna

Pablo Ozuna
AB HR RBI
BA
OBP SLG OPS
2008 JCM
165
0
7 .251 .295 .322 .617
2008 Actual 640
6 .281 .313 .328 .641

How wrong was I?  He actually played well enough for people to complain about him being cut.  I figured he would 1) play worse and 2) hang around longer, so color me pleasantly surprised on both counts.

A.J. Pierzynski

A.J. Pierzynski
AB HR RBI
BA
OBP SLG OPS
2008 JCM
460
14
57 .269 .315 .419 .734
2008 Actual
53413
60 .281 .312 .416 .728

How wrong was I?  That's three correct projections.  Got his overall effectiveness, though I was bearish on his ability to hit for doubles and bullish on his patience.

Carlos Quentin

Carlos Quentin
AB HR RBI
BA
OBP SLG OPS
2008 JCM
333
12
48 .266 .344 .451 .795
2008 Actual 48036
100 .288 .394 .571 .965

How wrong was I?  I beat PECOTA.

Alexei Ramirez

Alexei Ramirez
AB HR RBI
BA
OBP SLG OPS
2008 JCM
388
6
45 .263 .307 .396 .703
2008 Actual 48021
77 .290 .317 .475 782

How wrong was I?  PECOTA beat me.  I was close on his on-base percentage, which is really a testament to his aggression at the plate.

Nick Swisher

Nick Swisher
AB HR RBI
BA
OBP SLG OPS
2008 JCM
522
36
101 .268 .390 .512 .902
2008 Actual 49724
69 .219 .332 .410 .742
2006 BW
56515
44 .222 .306 .422 .728

How wrong was I?  The third line is Brad Wilkerson's 2006 season.  I give myself a half-point.

Jim Thome

Jim Thome
AB HR RBI
BA
OBP SLG OPS
2008 JCM 419
30
94 .272 .401 .539 .940
2008 Actual 50334
90 .245 .362 .503 .865

How wrong was I?  I figured Swisher's presence would allow Thome more days off against lefties, which would soften his decline due to a platoon advantage. As it turned out, he managed to reverse course against southpaws while suffering some against righties.  Oh well.

Juan Uribe

Juan Uribe
AB HR RBI
BA
OBP SLG OPS
2008 JCM
402
15
44 .242 .287 .402 .689
2008 Actual 3247
40 .247 .296 .386 .682

How wrong was I?  Like Pierzynski, Uribe traded a few homers for a good chunk of doubles.  I'll take it, and now I can claim my projection system is "50 percent more accurate!"

*******************

Arizona Fall League roundup (it's back!):
  • Peoria 10, Scottsdale 7
    • Gordon Beckham went 1-for-3 with a walk and two runs scored in his first fall game.
    • Aaron Poreda struck out two in a shutout inning, but also allowed two hits.
    • Carlos Torres picked up the win despite allowing a run on two hits over 1 1/3 innings.
And action from Opening Day Tuesday:
  • Peoria 9, Scottsdale 3
    • Cole Armstrong made his only hit in five at-bats count -- a bases-clearing double.
    • Derek Rodriguez struck out two and walked one in a scoreless inning.

A whole lot of wrongness about pitching

Under ordinary circumstances, I'd waste little time getting on my high horse in response to this Phil Rogers column:

The White Sox don't have a real No. 1 starter, a guy who dominates teams on his good days and consistently beats them when he's just all right. Buehrle is a winner but not an intimidator, an ideal No. 2 starter, maybe even No. 3. Danks (12-9) and Floyd (17-8) made huge strides in 2008 but still have some growing to do if they're going to get there. [...]

Never count out general manager Ken Williams' desire to improve his team. Rather than simply counting on Danks or Floyd to become a No. 1 starter, he could try to land one of the young guns who might be made available this winter: Kansas City's Zack Greinke, San Diego's Jake Peavy or San Francisco's Matt Cain.

I don't get the obsession.  By this definition, the Sox didn't have a No. 1 starter in 2005.  The Tampa Bay Rays pushed aside the White Sox with relative ease without a No. 1 of their own.

However, since I began looking at my preseason projections, I'm certainly not beyond reproach myself.  And I set the bar pretty low.

All I tried to do this season was top my total number of accurate projections for the 2007 season: three.  But after looking at my estimations of the pitching staff, it'll be an uphill climb to four.  Beginning with the starters:

Mark Buehrle:

Mark Buehrle
G
W-L
IP
H
HR BB K ERA
WHIP
2008 JCM
32
14-9
20621924
461133.881.28
2008 Actual
34
15-12 218.2 240
22
52 140 3.79
1.34

How wrong was I?  My only mistake was not counting on the Sox to be in contention.  Take out Buehrle's two short-rest starts, and here's what he has for 32 outings: 14-11, 204 2/3 innings, 223 hits, 21 homers, 47 walks, 131 strikeouts, 3.87 ERA, 1.32 WHIP.  I think I nailed this one.  Too bad I can't say the same about the rest.

Jose Contreras:

Jose Contreras
G
W-L
IP
H
HR BB K ERA
WHIP
2008 JCM
28
8-13
175 199 18
52 119 5.31 1.43
Actual
20
7-6
121 130 12 35 70 4.54 1.36

How wrong was I?  Rate-wise, not bad.  I hit his homer and walk rates exactly, was a little pessimistic on his hit rate, and optimistic about his strikeouts.  I even had him missing some time ... but just not enough of it.  I did whiff on his ability to stop big innings.  He was absolutely solid this year before the injury.

John Danks

John Danks
G
W-L
IP
H
HR BB K ERA
WHIP
2008 JCM
28
7-13
15116933
561215.901.41
2008 Actual
33
12-9 195 182
15
57 159 3.32
1.23

How wrong was I?  I've already taken a mulligan on this one thanks to the schedule of previews.  If I made the prediction after seeing his cutter at the start of spring training, I would've said a .500 record, 4.40 ERA and a WHIP around 1.30.  Still wrong, but at least that would've been respectably wrong.

Gavin Floyd

Gavin Floyd
G
W-L
IP
H
HR BB K ERA
WHIP
2008 JCM
26
8-14
15217130
491095.391.45
2008 Actual
33
17-8 206.1 190
30
70 145 3.84
1.26

How wrong was I?  Um ... I got his strikeout rate right!

Javier Vazquez

Javier Vazquez
G
W-L
IP
H
HR BB K ERA
WHIP
2008 JCM
32
15-12
21120130
482054.081.18
2008 Actual
33
12-16 208.3 214
25
61 200 4.67
1.32

How wrong was I?  If he ended three starts earlier, I would've been fine.

Octavio Dotel

Octavio Dotel
G
W-L
IP
H
HR BB K ERA
WHIP
2008 JCM
45
3-0
46465
14553.661.33
2008 Actual
67
4-4 67 52
12
29 92 3.76
1.21

How wrong was I?  Not particularly close on anything but ERA, but not horribly off, either.  Despite some painfully frustrating moments, I think everybody had to be pleased with his durability.

Bobby Jenks

Bobby Jenks
G
W-L
IP
H
HR BB K ERA
WHIP
2008 JCM
67
4-1
66.2414
20603.321.23
2008 Actual
52
3-1 61.2 51
3
17 38 2.63
1.10

How wrong was I?  This was basically a misread in all respects but the home run total.  He's a hard guy to figure out -- that drop in strikeouts is ominous, although he did find the serious heat at the end of the season.

Scott Linebrink

Scott Linebrink
G
W-L
IP
H
HR BB K ERA
WHIP
2008 JCM
65
3-5
667010
22544.151.39
2008 Actual
50
2-2 46.1 41
8
9 40 3.69
1.08

How wrong was I?  He allowed more homers than even my pessimistic self thought, but cut his walks drastically.  Still, I would've been really close if only he tried to tough his way through the bad shoulder a couple more times.

Boone Logan

Boone Logan
G
W-L
IP
H
HR BB K ERA
WHIP
2008 JCM
71
2-3
54606
20423.991.48
2008 Actual
55
2-3 42.2 57
7
14 42 5.95
1.68

How wrong was I?  Ignore the ERA -- I thought most of his damage would come letting inherited runners score and not his own.  But he definitely was worse in most respects than I thought he'd be, and I'm definitely going for the over next year.

Mike MacDougal

Mike MacDougal
G
W-L
IP
H
HR BB K ERA
WHIP
2008 JCM
31
0-2
32333
18265.221.60
2008 Actual
16
0-0 17 16
0
12 12 2.12
1.65

How wrong was I?  Not that much, when considering the range of performances MacDougal could've turned in.  I only would've had him allowing one homer in hindsight, because keeping the ball in the park is one area in which he consistenly excels.  That ERA-WHIP divide is something else.

Nick Masset

Nick Masset
G
W-L
IP
H
HR BB K ERA
WHIP
2008 JCM
10
0-1
15201
966.151.93
2008 Actual
32
1-0 44.2 55
4
21 32 4.63
1.70

How wrong was I?  OK, I might've let my emotions get out of hand slightly.

Matt Thornton

Matt Thornton
G
W-L
IP
H
HR BB K ERA
WHIP
2008 JCM
66
3-3
58575
24554.021.36
2008 Actual
74
5-3 67.1 48
5
19 77 2.67
1.00

How wrong was I?  Pretty wrong.  I thought he'd find a balance between his very good 2006 and somewhat poor 2007.  Instead, he delivered the best season of his career by far.

Tomorrow, we'll look at the position players.  Here's a teaser:  I underestimated Carlos Quentin.

We come to praise the 2008 White Sox, not bury them

(Before we begin, crank up the speakers and click on the music player to set an appropriate memorial mood with the Dirty Dozen Brass Band.  A New Orleans procession just seems right.)

One reason why I'm glad to be a White Sox fan is that, by and large, we know a good season when we see one.  It doesn't have to result in hardware to call it a success, which is a mindset likely borne out of necessity.  If Sox fans didn't shrug off failure, there's no way we would've survived all these years.

This was a good season.



This particular team might not go down in Sox lore with other also-rans, like the '83, '77 or '67 versions, but it belongs on the same tier as the 2000 or 1990 squads.  Those campaigns fizzled out in the end, but they weren't supposed to be in contention in the first place.  Thanks to a few out-of-nowhere performances and down years from the competition, they were able to claw out of the second division with optimism for the future.

Considering where the Sox were last year, and where they were expected to end up this year, I can't find any reasons to be upset.  It helped that the Sox were just good enough at tripping over themselves to not inflate expectations beyond reason.  Perhaps if Carlos Quentin stayed healthy and had a September that matched his previous five months, a first-round exit might hurt more.  Alas.

If nothing else, this season marked a reversal of 102 years of fortune. 

The division-winning Sox teams of the past built huge division leads and coasted into the postseason to varying degrees.  Below is a list of the Sox playoff teams and their narrowest September margin:
  • 2005: 1.5
  • 2000: 5.0 (final day)
  • 1993: 2.5
  • 1983: 11.5
  • 1959: 3.5
  • 1919: 3.5 (final day)
  • 1917: 3.5 (first day)
Meanwhile, the franchise history was littered with teams that couldn't close the deal:

*The 1905 Sox pulled into a dead heat with the Philadelphia A's on the eve of a head-to-head series Sept. 27, but they never recovered after back-to-back losses.

*The 1908 Sox only needed to win the final game of the season against Detroit -- sound familiar? -- to earn a postseason berth.  The game was over in the first inning, as a two-run Ty Cobb triple put the Tigers on a fast track to a 7-0 victory.

*The 1916 Sox spent three straight late September days a half-game back of the league lead, but could never grab hold of first for even a day.

*The 1964 Sox held a slim division lead going into Labor Day .  Three straight losses knocked them back into second place, and they finished one game behind the New York Yankees.  The Yankees won their first 11 games against the Sox that year, in effect the equivalent of the Metrodome Twins.

*The 1967 Sox played their way into a tie for first at the start of September, but couldn't close the gap the rest of the year, ending the season with five straight losses -- including two losses in the same night to the last-place Kansas City A's.

*The 1972 Sox, on the back of Dick Allen, managed to hold a half-game lead on the Oakland Athletics in the final week of August.  The A's, proved too strong in the end and won the second of five straight AL West pennants.

*The 2003 Sox held a two-game lead on the Minnesota Twins Sept. 9, but three straight losses dropped them back into a tie.  A sweep at the Metrodome one week later basically ended the season.

The 2008 White Sox had three separate chances to join this list after they found themselves a half-game behind with the Twins taking care of business on the last day of their regular season. The Sox had to win three games to make the playoffs, and they did just that.

The first was a 5-1 victory over the Cleveland Indians that snapped a five-game losing streak, thanks to seven great innings by Mark Buehrle on short rest.  The second was an 8-2 victory over the Detroit Tigers, with Alexei Ramirez providing the crushing blow with a grand slam.

That set up a one-game playoff against the Twins, where John Danks pitched the game of his life and Jim Thome provided the only run with a 461-foot solo shot.  Their efforts led the Sox to the division title, only the second time in Sox history they won a pennant when trailing at any point in the final month of the season.

1906 marked the only other time a Sox team accomplished that feat, when the Hitless Wonders found themselves one game behind the Yankees Sept. 23.  They then rattled off nine wins in 10 games to take a commanding lead en route to their first World Series title.

In a poetic twist, those Sox beat the heavily favored Cubs, who had set a record with 116 wins, four games to two in the only all-Chicago World Series.  One hundred and two years later, the Sox rallied from a late-September deficit; the Cubs were dumped unceremoniously in the postseason after leading their league in victories by a clear margin.

Of course, the crosstown championship never came close to materializing (although the Sox's season did last one game longer).  But the Sox didn't need to go any further to call this season a winner.  They had overcome the odds in more ways than one -- winning three straight elimination games, beating the arch-rival Twins with everything on the line and bucking their own sorry history of late-season fades.

If this season gives us new hope when the Sox scuffle in September, then losing to a clearly superior Tampa Bay Rays (even if that sounds wrong) doesn't really matter all that much.  And sure, it's easier to say that with a World Series title in our recent memories, but I think Sox fans would find a way to appreciate it either way.

After all, they failed with their belts tight.  We can't ask for more than that.

Even if we still don't know what the hell that means.

*********************

That said, I'd like to thank everybody who frequents and participates on this site for its third season.  I appreciate the level of discourse and am immensely proud that despite disagreements and disappointments, I've never had to delete a single comment.

(Please don't get any ideas.)

If your interest in the Sox goes into hibernation now and lies dormant until the spring, then thanks, so long, and hope to see you back next year...

...but, if this is your first year on Sox Machine, the season doesn't end here.  We'll go through a healthy post-mortem, ponder the future, sift through hot-stove talk and dissect the crap out of major moves when they happen.  I'll also have a couple big announcements to make in the next week or so.

For those who make this site part of a daily routine, I'll give you a reason to stop by just about every day.  And for those who make this site an occasional visit, hopefully I'll give you reasons to come back more often.  After all, next season is only a handful of months away.

Divisional series is Dewayne's world for White Sox

The White Sox have scored 11 runs in their three games against the Tampa Bay Rays, and Dewayne Wise has either scored or driven in more than half of them.

Brian Anderson has bestowed upon Wise the greatest title every player dreams of:

I hope no one gets offended, because it's not meant to be offensive, but I really do call him the black Ross Gload. He's the African-American Ross Gload, there you go. Ross Gload is so versatile and he's such a great hitter. But a guy like Dewayne Wise, you're almost in awe, wondering why this guy is not playing everyday somewhere. This guy was about to go play Independent ball and he's helping us win postseason games.

Of course, Gload doesn't come close to matching Wise's baserunning skills -- and he provided one of his finest examples Sunday. In the third inning, he avoided getting doubled up by alertly diving back to first on a liner, stole second and scored on A.J. Pierzynski's single, which was the first two-out hit with runners in scoring position all series long by a guy not dubbed the African-American Ross Gload.

He's 10-for-10 in the base-stealing department between the regular season and the playoffs, and scored a +15 in Bill James' baserunning system in limited action.  Perhaps we'll be calling the next Sox speedster the White, Hispanic, Asian or even Canadian Dewayne Wise.

Ken Rosenthal has more on Wise ... but you might've already read that here several weeks ago.

**********************

While translating Ozzie Guillen's interviews
from English to English makes a beat writer's job hard, at least he gives them this same story at the end of every season:

"We need speed, but they have to have talent," Guillen said before the Sox beat Tampa Bay 5-3 Sunday to extend their American League Division Series. "I know I would like to see some more speed. But when you talk about speed, you can't talk about nine rabbits. You can't."

That said, I wouldn't be surprised if Wise reprised his role next season.  Although I hestitate to again mention Wise's extremely spotty track record, he could also reprise the role last held by Timo Perez as Journeyman Outfielder Who Played Adequately in an Emergency Situation, But Won't Nearly Be Worth The Million Dollars or Thereabouts They Give Him The Following Year, or JOWPAESBWBNWTMDTTGHTFY.

Not that he's nearly as bad as Timo, mind you, but Timo actually hit .292/.345/.406 for the first half of 2004.  He then proceeded to play like the Timo we all knew and ... knew... for the rest of that season and all of 2005, but the half-season of not-badness was enough to secure a spot the following year.

**********************

John Danks pitched 6 2/3 tough innings to stave off elimination for the second time in front of a sea of black-clad fans, and he saved his most important work for the top of the fifth.

The Sox had just given him a 4-1 lead (thanks in large part to a double by the African-American Ross Gload), and the Rays countered with the top of their order.  Danks struck out Akinori Iwamura on three pitches, and fanned B.J. Upton after starting the at-bat with two out of the strike zone.

Carlos Pena then hit a harmless fly on the first pitch for a 1-2-3 inning, which was Danks' finest frame.  That kind of timing is why people are growing to love Danks.  Conversely, timing is also be one of the chief reasons behind the growing disdain for Javier Vazquez.

In three of his last four starts, Vazquez has coughed up a lead the half-inning after the Sox gave him one.  The Sox never led in the other game, although to his credit, Vazquez did throw a scoreless inning after the Sox tied it at 1.

Steve Rosenbloom called Danks "the anti-Vazquez," which is kind of the glib squirrel finding a nut.  But I suspect if Vazquez waited an inning or two to blow a lead, people would tolerate him a little better.

Meanwhile, I'm hoping the Sox will consider putting Danks on the Mark Buehrle Spring Training plan, because along with winning his first career playoff game, he also cracked the 200-inning barrier for the first time.  He's almost up 50 innings on his previous high (156 in 2005), and he's had two of his more strenuous outings his last two times out.

Of course, it all depends on how fast he gets loose, but he's been a pretty good spring pitcher in a hitter's environment, so it stands to reason that he might be able to ease into 2009.

**********************

And now it's up to Gavin Floyd to extend the Sox's winning streak in do-or-die games to five.

Floyd has never faced the Rays, but the Sox are well-acquainted with the pitcher Tampa will send to the mound in Andy Sonnanstine.

Sonnanstine handed the Sox their first shutout loss in April, but they enjoyed an increasing amount of success off him their second and third times around.  His last start was the Doug Eddings Game.

In mid-August, Sonnanstine stood at 13 wins, one shy of Tampa Bay's franchise record.  He hasn't won a game since, though that's not indicative of his pitching overall.  He was Danksed in a couple games, allowing one unearned run in two consecutive starts against Boston and receiving no decision in both.

Moreover, he threw three consecutive starts without allowing a homer before throwing a couple gopher balls in his last start against Detroit.

Sure, the Sox didn't need the homer to beat the Rays Sunday, but that's because they got the running game going.  They stand little to no chance of running on Sonnanstine, because baserunners are only 2-for-13 against him lifetime.  Contrast that against Floyd's laissez-faire attitude toward baserunners -- they were 37-for-42 off him this year -- and the ability to take extra bases could help decide this game.  Roger Bossard better turn first base into a swamp.

While Sonnanstine doesn't issue many walks, one of his flaws we've seen is that he often will grab too much of the strike zone.  Sox hitters will have to take advantage of those mistakes for extra bases of their own -- preferably of the four-base variety.

Elimination games are good things, right?

Well, no matter what happens later today, Kenny Williams and Co. can say the White Sox lasted longer than the Cubs this season when the crosstown series rolls around next year.

A few notes before heading into what I hope isn't the final game of 2008:

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Game 3 will be another "blackout" game, in an attempt to capture of the magic of Game 163.  Hopefully the offense will score more than one run this time out, though.

(Tangent No. 1:  To the right is the picture on the Trib's White Sox section of last Monday's game against the Twins.  I wonder what the guy in the bright white sweatshirt was thinking when he saw the stands fill up around him.)

(Tangent No. 2:  I also wonder if the guy in the red jacket three rows back saw the guy in said white sweatshirt and felt a little bit of relief.)

Jake Hahn, Rick Hahn's son and inspiration behind the "heads" call on the fateful coin flip, will throw out the first pitch.

(Tangent No. 3:  If the junior Hahn picked "tails," I wonder if the elder Hahn would've ratted him out.  "He knew what he was in for," the assistant general manager told reporters. "He would've gotten full credit if he were right, so it's only fair that he owns up.")

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John Danks will take the mound for the Sox as they attempt to win three straight elimination games for the second time this season.

Danks' numbers against the Rays are solid this year (2-1, 1.86 ERA, 20 K in 19.1 IP).  The Rays have had an increasing amount of success off him (scoring zero, one and three runs off him in his starts), but then again, Danks declined across the board in the second half.  He is coming off his best start of the year. 

He'll face Matt Garza, a pitcher who swore off attempting to look normal in his MLB headshots at some point during the 2006 season (thanks to Stick and Ball Guy for the archived ones).

Garza hasn't faced the Sox this year, but in his time with the Twins, the Sox thumped him for nine runs on 22 hits over 12 1/3 innings.  Perhaps that's because he comes at hitters hard with a fastball that sits around 94-95, which the Sox can actually hit.  He's generally been one of Tampa's toughest pitchers since getting into a dugout spat with Dioner Navarro June 8, but he's had some issues as of late, with allowing three runs in each of his last three outings, all abbreviated and with shaky peripherals.

Joe Maddon skipped Garza's second-to-last turn in the rotation, and thought Garza threw better his last time out.  Sox hitters have their work cut out for them if that's the case.

The one saving grace is Garza is homer-prone against lefties.  If Jim Thome and Ken Griffey Jr. want their rings, then they can help themselves today.

Witnesses to their own funeral

After two games in the ALDS against the Tampa Bay Rays, it's clear the Chicago White Sox are following the Metrodome Template in their quest for postseason glory:

Step 1:  Watch Javier Vazquez collapse.
  CHECK.

Step 2:  Waste a perfectly acceptable start by Mark Buehrle.  CHECK
2A: Help a shaky opposing starter out of trouble repeatedly. CHECK
2B: Flail helplessly against the bullpen.  CHECK.
2C: Make Buehrle record extra outs.  CHECK.
Step 3:  Blow a five-run lead.

The good news the Sox return home after only two games indoors, instead of three.  However, I'd advise you to prepare for a Game 5 letdown (if necessary).

*******************

There should be an asterisk next to "flail," because against J.P.C. Thomas Thurston Howell III, the Sox had extreme trouble pulling the trigger.  Juan Uribe, Brian Anderson and Nick Swisher all struck out.  And only Juan Uribe had cause to complain:

First, the pitch locations to Uribe and Anderson:



Uribe didn't have a chance on the pitch out of the strike zone, considering it started out well inside before tailing back to still end up off the plate.  That one's unfortunate.

On the other hand, Howell has made Anderson look foolish on two consecutive days.  Friday night, he struck out Anderson without throwing a single pitch faster than 81 m.p.h. -- three changeups and one curve.  Howell also froze Anderson Thursday, although to B.A.'s credit, he did work the count full then.  In his own words, "I don't know, man."

And then there's Nick Swisher.  Oy.



Somehow he found issue with C.B. Bucknor's strike zone despite Bucknor giving him a fastball at the knees in his favor to start the at-bat.  He didn't expect a 3-2 curve, and plainly put, his season can't end soon enough.

Vazquez, domes still bad news

It's easy to get up in arms over another big-game disappointment from Javier Vazquez, but I'm finding it difficult to get all that upset.  The Rays had dome-field advantage and their best starter plenty rested; the Sox were throwing out their worst of all realistic options.

The Sox lost by two, which sounds about right.

Now, had Ozzie Guillen prepared to use Vazquez for Game 5 (if necessary) -- that would've raised the ol' blood pressure.  Guillen's smarter than that, though:

"We have to sit down and talk about it," Guillen said. "I don't want to lose faith in Javy, but it's something that's on our mind. If we get to a Game 5, I might start with [ Mark] Buehrle. I don't know yet. But you know it's going to be on my mind."

Ozzie leaves it open-ended, but it'd take a complete and utter flop by Buehrle for Vazquez to get the ball again.  And even then, it might be Clayton Richard instead.

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In hindsight,
maybe Richard was the better choice to start Game 1.  There were reasons for it -- Richard fared extremely well in his last start against the Yankees, who have similar struggles against left-handed pitching as the Rays.

But Richard needed Octavio Dotel to bail him out of the eighth inning after the Rays started making increasingly better contact, and he had thrown 60 pitches in just 3 1/3 innings.  That was generally the story for most of his starts -- out of the gates quickly, until he ran into a wall.  Had Richard faced B.J. Upton instead of Dotel, Thursday may have ended the same way.

That said, it was an excellent outing by Richard, who has now tied together a couple strong long relief coutings.  Considering he was an afterthought in Birmingham at the start of the season and is still awkward on and around the mound, he's been a fairly quick learner.

******************

And let's not leave the offense out of it.  When another afterthought -- this one a 30-year-old minor-league journeyman outfielder -- drives in 75 percent of the runs, that isn't going to work, either.

Especially since Dewayne Wise won't be in today's lineup.  Nick Swisher will start in left instead to face left-handed Scott Kazmir.  The most interesting excerpt from that story:

Sox general manager Kenny Williams said there's a mechanical flaw in Swisher's swing. It can be corrected, Williams assured, but not until the off-season.

To my untrained eye, my guess is that he's pulling off the ball.  Either way, it's slightly curious that the mystery flaw is untouchable until the end of the season (coughgregwalkercough), but what do I know?

But while on the subject of Swisher, it's remarkable how similar his season has been to Kosuke Fukudome's.  I watched the second half of the Cubs game after the vice presidential debate and watched Fukudome go 0-for-4 with a hat trick.  Two of the strikeouts were backwards Ks.

Swisher is hitting .191 in the second half; Fukudome hit .217. 

Ozzie said of Swisher's benching, "I don't want you to come here asking me why I'm not playing, why I did this, because I don't want to deal with that."

Lou Piniella pulled Fukudome from the NLDS Game 3 lineup, saying, "From now on, I don't want to hear about Fukudome anymore as far as whether he's going to play or not."

And I thought both were going to be tremendous additions to their respective teams.  So, once again, what do I know?

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Moving on to Game 2, this series has some ominous overtones to the last series the Sox played indoors -- when they were swept at the hands of the Minnesota Twins in the Metrodome.

Vazquez started the three-game set off by lasting only 4 1/3 innings, putting the game out of reach just after its halfway point.  Buehrle then had the second game, in which he had a favorable pitching matchup, and yet still ended up on the losing end despite a fine effort.

On paper, Buehrle has the upper hand over Scott Kazmir.  Kazmir has been beat up in two of his last three starts, sandwiching six shutout innings against the Twins with a pair of outings in which he gave up four homers apiece.  He has a 5.19 ERA in September thanks to nine homers and 15 walks in 26 innings.

The Sox struggled to reach base against Shields because 1) he's good, and 2) he doesn't walk anybody.  Kazmir issues plenty of free passes, especially of late, so the Swisher sub should pay dividends if Kazmir keeps pitching like he has.

Buehrle, meanwhile, is pitching on full rest after a tremendous short-rest effort in the first of three consecutive elimination games the Sox won. Richard showed him the formula for success, so if he can locate that cutter/slider and curve away from the Rays' left-handed batters, he has a good chance to even up the series.

******************

On a final note, I'm trying to figure out what Joe Cowley is actually suggesting:

The Sox needed to send a message over the next few innings that they are the "bad boys of baseball,'' not the Rays, but didn't. That was disappointing. Losing a game is one thing, but letting a young team feel like they punked you on top of it? Unacceptable.

I... I'm at a loss.  Especially since the fact that the Rays won is the only reason why the Sox were "punked," whatever that means in this context.  If the Sox scored four off Dan Wheeler, I'm sure the jawing and glaring would take a backseat to the fairly impressive comeback.

But since my language was called into question a couple days ago, I'd just like to point out that "nut up" and "Balfour tasted himself some more" made it into the blog of a major metro newspaper.  That's kind of neat.  And sad.

Floyd, Danks lead South Side resurgence

With each on three days' rest, Gavin Floyd and John Danks turned in some of their finest work, staving off the end of the season with brilliant work in what I hope are the final two elimination games the Sox face this season.

Floyd went six tough innings against Detroit, throwing off-speed pitches in unfavorable counts because his fastball wasn't working.  He came up with some clutch strikeouts, and when he slipped up by throwing a ball away, he worked past it without any further damage.  The Sox offense rewarded his toughness handsomely.

One day later, Danks, pitching on short rest for the first time all season, extracted from his hindquarters the finest performance of his career.  Eight innings, no runs, two hits, with only one runner reaching scoring position.

In a year with a lot of fascinating wrinkles, these last two games top the list.  The season's hopes rested on the shoulders (and arms) of Floyd and Danks all season.  Why stop now?



Before the season started, I wrote a poetry preview for AOL Fanhouse.  The final stanza:
But it's up to Contreras, Danks and Floyd
For Kenny's plan to make an iota of sense
Injuries and pitfalls they'll have to avoid
To surpass Minnesota, Cleveland, Detroit
A lot must go right to make any difference.

All three delivered to varying degrees.  Contreras' season -- and perhaps career -- were abbreviated by a ruptured Achilles, but the Sox went 11-9 in his starts.  Last season, they were 12-20. He had one stretch where he allowed seven runs over six starts (42 innings), with three of those games against teams currently in the playoffs.  It never seemed easy with Contreras, but he did his job, and the Sox do and will miss him.

Still, Floyd and Danks were the lynchpins to the season, and few trusted them, least of all me.  I cringe at my projections, although in my defense, Danks' one came before I saw his cutter in spring training.  That was the one pitch he lacked, and had I known it would be ready for primetime, I probably would've revised that ERA down to 4.40 or so.  It's not close, either, but it's closer.

(I have no such excuse for Floyd.  I thought he would be in and out of the rotation.)

It's been fun seeing them develop this year in their own ways.  Floyd, who got by on a lot of good fortune and unearned runs in the first half, cut down considerably on his nibbling.  It didn't make his ERA any prettier, but even if he only manages to be a little bit above-average, he stands a much better chance of sustaining it:

 
IP
RA/9
BABIP
BB/9
K/9
HR/9
First half
111.2
4.59
.218
3.79
6.04
1.37
Second half
94.2
4.56
.304
2.19
6.65
1.24

Floyd's first half looked better than it was thanks in large part to a whopping 15 earned runs, a total Mark Buehrle would find embarrassing.  He only allowed two unearned runs after the break, so when you look at his average of runs allowed rather than ERA, it provides a lot of reasons to be encouraged by a second half -- especially as he reached a career-high in innings and the league became more familiar with him.

The homers will likely always be there for a few reasons.  He doesn't have the most natural movement on his fastball, often loses his arm slot, and also throws a big curve that can be sent airborne when he hangs it.  Cutting the walks was a huge step in his development, and it appears that he's done it.  The best stat:  He walked three or more batters in half of his first 20 starts, but none of his last 13.

Danks had a different problem: endurance.  His peripherals were sterling across the board, and there's no better example than his home run rate.  Let's just say the cutter lived up to his name, as he slashed his home run rate by 62 percent from 2007 to 2008.

However, when he reached the seventh inning, all bets were off.  He started missing the mitt with his fastballs, his changeups drifted higher in the zone, and hitters made him pay.  On one hand, it made for easier managing, because Ozzie Guillen generally understood his limitations.  It did hurt Danks' win total -- not as much as the dearth of run support, but he could've made his job easier by going an extra inning.

The only real reason was overthrowing, and that's why I liked watching Danks throw against Minnesota Tuesday.  You could see him battling with restraint.  He hit 95 on the gun, but would drift farther and farther toward the third-base line after his release.  Unlike previous starts, he caught himself and toned it down, and as Michael Cuddyer said after the game, he gave the Twins very little to hit.

The bottom line with both pitchers is that their success this season wasn't smoke and mirrors.  Floyd's first half was a bit of a mirage, but his he combated an evening of luck with actual improvement.  Danks has the greater upside, and appeared to learn from experience.  Despite the playoff push, Guillen did a pretty good job of limiting their workloads (Danks especially), so if there is a boatload of regression, I don't think we can point the finger at Ozzie.

If they maintain their performances from this season for the next few, it makes the Sox a helluva lot more formidable than they appeared before the season.  Having two average-to-above-average starters making the league minimum saves about $15 to $20 million off the payroll.  Contreras' injury is an unfortunate inconvenience and not a crippler.  And Kenny Williams doesn't have to throw any more cash at the bullpen if he doesn't want to, either.

Glory could very well be fleeting, as is always the case with pitchers.  But that's how amazing Williams' two trades worked out.  He already has a pair of steals on his hands even if this is the only good year Danks and Floyd ever have, and there's an abundance of evidence suggesting the best is yet to come.

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A few notes before the playoffs begin:


*Joe Cowley has the playoff roster, and here are the non-obvious choices:
  • Clayton Richard is your second lefty in the bullpen; Boone Logan and Horacio Ramirez are out of the picture, thankfully.
  • Josh Fields is your backup infielder, as he's the only non-Uribe infielder with experience at third.
  • Jerry Owens snuck on as a sixth outfielder.
  • D.J. Carrasco is the last righty; Mike MacDougal's surge was short-lived.
Carlos Quentin is a remote possibility for the ALCS if the Sox advance, and...

*The Cheat says the Sox will advance!
  His reasoning is sound.

*Javier Vazquez is the Game 1 starter.  No time like the present to shake that reputation.
posted Th