posted on Thursday, March 15, 2007 10:28 PM by Jim

Mark Buehrle

ESSENTIALS
2006 OVERVIEW

PITCHING

In the first three months of the season, Mark Buehrle looked like the staff ace we all know and love.  In the last three, he was the worst regular starter in baseball.  Just like that, he went from being a pitcher to whom you could set a stopwatch to a giant question mark.  Here's his season split:

Period
W-L
ERA
GS
IP
H
ER
HR
BB
K
Apr.-June
9-4
3.22
16
111.2
112
40
12
28
47
July-Sept.
3-9
7.12
16
92.1
135
73
24
20
51

The collapse was hard to believe.  I found comfort in what would turn out to be his season's fulcrum because while he may have given up seven first-inning run against the Cubs, he'd done that earlier in the year to the Twins and rebounded to throw a two-hitter against the Cubs, and toss another gem in the following outing against the A's.

Instead, he never looked the same.  He lost all five of his starts in July, posting an 11.48 ERA through the month.  He looked better in August, yet he still had the same problem -- giving up hits by the truckload.  Even during his best start of the second half, a key victory over the Twins in which he allowed one run over seven innings, he still gave up nine hits.  Over the second half, Buehrle gave up fewer or an equal amount of hits to innings pitched in only three of 16 starts, as opposed to 10 of 16 in the first half.

The only area in which he improved was strikeouts, but that's because he had a lot of trouble getting hitters out any other way.  Buehrle owned the fifth-lowest pitches per plate appearance rate (3.54) in the American League, but mainly because the opposition teed off on his early offerings.

Although Buehrle has denied any lack of conditioning as the cause of his decline, he looked as hittable as his stats indicate.  His fastball only registered in the low-to-mid-80s instead of the upper reaches, and the Bill James Handbook says he had the seventh-slowest fastball of any major-league starter in 2006, and because of that, he threw the lowest percentage of fastballs (44.4 percent).  The diminished velocity took away Buehrle's ability to work inside, and hitters had their way with him.

Only his staff-leading 11 unearned runs kept his ERA from going over 5.00 for the first time in his career.  He finished at 4.99.

DEFENSE

After somewhat of a down year in 2005 limiting the running game, Buehrle was back to form.  The opposition only ran on him 11 times, and were only successful four times even with a trio of weak-throwing catchers.  He led the majors in pickoffs with 10, while only balking once, which came against the Angels late in the year.

He only committed one error, and it must have been inconsequential since I can't find it in State of the Sox.  I can't recall him having any particular problems fielding his position, something that he's quite good at.

2007 OUTLOOK

All eyes are on Buehrle when it comes to the rotation.  If he returns to form, everybody will be talking about how much he'll cost his next employer, whether it's the White Sox or another team.  If he continues to struggle, everybody will wonder loudly what's wrong.

The good news is that he's faring decently in the tremendous hitting environment in Arizona.  If he were lacking too much zip, his stats would let him know (see Jon Garland's).  Now we'll have to wait and see if any improvement in conditioning lasts an entire season.

Two factors will clash in 2007 for Buehrle -- one is that it's a contract year; the other is that the Sox have been negotiating somewhat with him, but talks haven't gotten close.  The last two times Buehrle has rejected Sox contracts, he's gone on to fail miserably in the half year afterwards.

Basically, it's anybody's guess how he'll fare.  Like last year, it won't matter who the fifth starter is, because Buehrle will be the guy to make or break this rotation.

PROJECTIONS

Mark Buehrle
 G
 W-L
 IP
 H
 HR BB K ERA
 WHIP
2007 ZiPS
 33
 14-11
 223 248 27 49 130 4.36 1.24
2007 BJS
 31
 12-11 200 214
 24
 45 114 3.96
 1.30
2007 JCM
 33
 13-13
 219 241 24
 44 109 4.48 1.30

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