posted on Saturday, March 03, 2007 12:55 AM by Jim

Joe Crede

ESSENTIALS
2006 OVERVIEW

OFFENSE

For the first five months of the season, Joe Crede might've been the best third baseman in the league with the bat, surpassing even Alex Rodriguez in many important offensive categories. 

Entering the season, he always had the power but struggled to make quality contact.  However, the change he made in his swing plane late in 2005 carried over into 2006.  He cut his strikeout rate while carrying a .300 average into September.

In typical Crede fashion, many of his hits were big ones.  Without a doubt, his signature moment came against the Astros, when he hit a first-pitch grand slam to tie up the game, leading to the Sox's first nine-game winning streak since 1977.

But let's not forget the smaller moments, such as:
Not counted are the hits that helped create big leads early in the game. 

Unfortunately, his production fell off the table in September as the herniated disk in his back flared up.  Crede batted .179/.264/.282 in the final month of the season, and endured an 0-for-28 slump as the death knell sounded for the Sox.  Crede hit rock bottom on Sept. 20 against the Tigers, when he went 0-for-4 and grounded into three double plays.

BASERUNNING

The Bill James Handbook rated Crede as the 11th worst baserunner in baseball.  Part of the equation is percentage of times scored, and with the guys Crede had behind him (Juan Uribe, Rob Mackowiak and Scott Podsednik), that hurt him quite a bit.

The handbook also says he made six outs on the basepaths, but I can only count three of them.  He was thrown out at home against the Reds on June 16, and again a month later by Melky Cabrera.  His worst decision on the basepaths came when he broke for home on a liner to short with one out against the Royals Aug. 1.

That leaves three outs supposedly unaccounted for.  Maybe he's just sneaky slow.

DEFENSE

Crede could've been a worthy Gold Glove winner.  Instead, the voters just gave it to Eric Chavez out of habit. 

It's a shame, because he played the hot corner brilliantly all year long, with his most memorable play being the juggling catch along the tarp against Seattle May 4.  But instead of trying to recount every lunging/diving grab and awesome throw, I figure it'd just be easier to list the weeks Crede won the weekly Gold Glove:

Here | Here | Here | Here | Here | Here | Here | Here

Crede committed only 10 errors all year, good for third-fewest in the American League, and the only time I can recall him looking completely bad is when he committed a double error that nearly cost the Sox a win over the Tigers.

2007 OUTLOOK

Two things temper optimism about Crede -- his back is the obvious one, his walk rate is the other.  There's not much more to say about his back, which he thinks he's helped with strenuous conditioning.  If it starts ailing him again, look for a big slump.

With the second point, I don't necessarily think Crede has to walk more to be an effective player; I'm more or less saying that when he gets into a slump, he doesn't have a secondary way to make himself effective at the plate.  That's only a minor gripe, however, if he keeps doing what he's doing.  Here's what he's done since coming off the DL in September 2005, to when he should've gone on it in 2006:

AB HR RBI
 BA
 OBP SLG OPS
533
 35 102 .310 .342 .568
 .910

I'd take that.

PROJECTIONS

Joe Crede
 AB HR RBI
 BA
 OBP SLG OPS
2007 ZiPS
 513
 27 70 .269 .318 .483 802
2007 BJS
 494
 26
 87
 .267 .317 .480 .797
2007 JCM
 479
 28
 79 .270 .321 .502 .823

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