posted on Tuesday, February 06, 2007 11:03 PM by Jim

Darin Erstad

ESSENTIALS
2006 OVERVIEW

OFFENSE

A nagging ankle injury kept Darin Erstad out of action for most of the year, and ineffective at the plate when he managed to play.  It bothered him in Spring Training, and he struggled through April (.238/.279/.350) before going on the DL through the month of May.  When he returned in June, he was even worse (.091/.231/.091), and the Angels proceeded to shut him down until September.  He played sparingly when he returned, and underwent arthroscopic surgery in early October.

BASERUNNING

Erstad didn't reach base enough last year for anybody to accurately assess his baserunning skills.  Even if he reached, the bad ankle would've cost him. 

In 2005, however, Erstad was considered by some to be one of the best baserunners in the game, a skill reflected in his stolen base percentage from 2002-05 (58-for-66, or 88 percent).  The 2006 Hardball Times annual rated him slightly better than Chone Figgins, who was the best baserunner in the big leagues last year according to the Bill James Handbook.

Thankfully, he made a rare mistake during Game 3 of the ALCS that year.

DEFENSE

Erstad has a Gold Glove as an outfielder and a first baseman, and he played center most of last year.  As noted before, however, the last two years Erstad has spent significant time in center, he also spent significant time on the disabled list.

Completely anecdotally, Mike Scioscia said he missed Erstad's defense in center when he was out of the linenup in May, bad ankle and all.  Chris Dial's zone-rating based metric agrees with that assessment, saying he covered a lot of ground out there during his abbreviated playing time. When healthy, he was one of the top outfielders in the league year after year according to metrics in both center and left field. 

2007 OUTLOOK

Initially, I groaned when finding out the Sox signed Erstad, but there's a lot to like about him if he's utilized correctly.  And if he's healthy, of course.

For instance, as long as he gets on base (and that's not as sure a bet as it once was), he should improve what was the worst baserunning team in the league last year.  He may not steal bases as often as he used to, but he seems to know when to give himself the green light, even through injury.

Then there's his defense, which, if teamed with Brian Anderson instead of replacing him while Scott Podsednik's out, should give the Sox an excellent defensive outfield -- or at least two-thirds of one.  To say he's a better defensive backup than Rob Mackowiak would be an understatement the size of Jim Thome's swing.

If he starts in left in the earlygoing and bats eighth or ninth, well, he can't be much worse than Anderson and Juan Uribe were last year.  But the Sox can't fall in love with his gritty grinder gamer guts to the point where Ozzie Guillen bats him leadoff five days a week, like early reports suggest. 

He's posted an OBP above league average only once in the last six years.  After slugging .541 during his fluke 2000 season, he's cracked .400 only once during that same stretch.  Simply put, he's not a hitter, and if he's soaking up at-bats in the leadoff spot, the Sox are likely to be as bad as they were last year in getting things going.

Basically, he's Ross Gload with better defense and a lesser bat.  Gload only got 156 ABs last year, so that should be some kind of marker in terms of acceptable playing time.

Erstad is 9-for-20 as a pinch-hitter, Oz.  Hint, hint.

PROJECTIONS

Darin Erstad
 AB HR RBI
 BA
 OBP SLG OPS
2007 ZiPS
 443
 5 56 .273 .326 .379 .705
2007 BJS
 259
 4
 35 .270 .327 .375 .702
2007 JCM
 315
 6
 42 .265 .317 .384 .701

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