posted on Tuesday, January 30, 2007 10:43 PM by Jim

Javier Vazquez

ESSENTIALS
2006 OVERVIEW

PITCHING

Looking back at Javier Vazquez's 2006 season, it's kinda funny -- though not "ha-ha" funny -- how similar his profile was to Esteban Loaiza's in 2003, and how dissimilar they ended up in terms of value.

Similarities:  They're both hard-throwing right-handers.  Both were making the Sox their fourth team.  Both had the reputation of being underachievers, or having great stuff, but not knowing how to use it.  They both have 13 letters in their name.  They even look somewhat alike when you give Loaiza a chance to cover up the sudden attack of male-pattern baldness.  Here's Loaiza ... and here's Vazquez. 

Differences: 
  • Loaiza cost a minor-league contract; Vazquez cost a top-grade outfield prospect, a useful bullpen arm and $9 million on top of that.
  • Loaiza started the year strong and tailed off during the stretch; Vazquez had a rough year until the last month.
  • Loaiza finished second in Cy Young voting; Vazquez finished below .500.
And we can go on and on from there.

It's safe to call Vazquez a disappointment, and those feelings were exacerbated by his propensity for severe meltdowns.  His struggles after his pitch count hit 75 were well-documented throughout the season, and here are the final numbers (OBP is rough, since I couldn't find sac fly or HBP data):
  • Pitches No. 1-75: .239/.292/.346
  • Pitches No. 75+:  .308/.347/.551
Of course, sometimes Vazquez would blow by the 75-pitch mark like nothing.  He nearly no-hit the Royals, but if you don't count that game, he had a couple brilliant outings against AL East teams later in the year.  He threw eight innings of two-hit, one-run ball against the Blue Jays while striking out 13, and a month later, he threw eight-innings of three-hit, one-run ball while K'ing 11 Red Sox (unfortunately, the Sox couldn't solve future Cy Young winner Kason Gabbard). 

Unfortunately, the threat of a five-and-dive grew so distinct that Ozzie Guillen had to start handling him with kid gloves.  Nowhere was it more noticeable than against the Twins Aug. 25, when Ozzie pulled Vazquez after five innings, two runs, and 71 pitches. 

Perhaps that served as a wakeup call of sorts, because he pitched respectably while the Sox were still in contention in September, posting a 3.70 ERA with four double-digit strikeout games.  Unfortunately, he went 0-3 with three no-decisions during that time. 

That about sums of Vazquez's season:  He finished with 184 strikeouts, good enough to lead the staff by a margin of 50, yet he won the fewest games.

DEFENSE

Vazquez did a respectable job of holding runners, even if the percentage isn't great (10-for-14).  With the weak-throwing catchers the Sox featured throughout the season, 10 is a fairly low number.  On the other hand, that Vazquez allowed baserunners in clumps may have resulted in fewer opportunities for stolen bases to begin with.

He finished with zero errors, so overall, he handled his position just fine -- except for one game against the Rangers, when he failed to come to the defense of his catcher, triggering an ugly series of events.

Long rant short:  Vazquez hit a career-high 15 batters in 2006, but he didn't throw at a Ranger after he knew Vicente Padilla plunked A.J. Pierzynski on purpose.  That gave Padilla another opportunity to throw at Pierzynski, after which warnings were issued.  Vazquez still didn't throw at a Ranger (even though he pitched like crap that game and an ejection wouldn't have hurt the team), and Ozzie had to send in rookie Sean Tracey to do the dirty work.  Tracey failed, Ozzie chewed him out in front of the cameras, and the image became iconic of a lost season.

2007 OUTLOOK

I wish I knew what to say about Javy.

The problem projecting Vazquez is that he's a perpetual tease.  Each year, he posts great peripherals -- above-average strikeout rates, below-average walk rates, and a respectable amount of homers and hits.  On the other hand, the stats don't account for his tightening up/nibbling and curious pitch selection when runners reach base.

There's no reason why he couldn't be the ace of the Sox staff in 2007, but they've been saying that about him for three years now.  And the pressure will only increase, since Chris Young is slated to start in center for the Arizona Diamondbacks. 

Maybe being on the pessimistic side will help matters.

PROJECTIONS

Javier Vazquez
 G
 W-L
 IP
 H
 HR BB K ERA
 WHIP
2007 ZiPS
 31
 13-10
 199 201 25 55 169 4.21 1.29
2007 BJS
 29
 11-10 217 216
 29
 55 190 3.86
 1.30
2007 JCM
 32
 12-14
 211 212 26
 51 196 4.75 1.25

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