posted on Thursday, January 18, 2007 11:01 PM by Jim

Bobby Jenks

ESSENTIALS
2006 OVERVIEW

PITCHING

Considering all the question marks surrounding Bobby Jenks entering the 2006 season, both behavioral and health-related, his first full season in the big leagues should be considered a success.  He finished second in the American League with 41 saves in 45 opportunities and, with a little bit of help from Ozzie Guillen, made his first All-Star team.

On the other hand, Jenks finished the season far less impressively than he started, losing some velocity in the final month of the season.  An MRI on a sore hip didn't find any damage, so it could've just been conditioning.  Outward appearance would agree with that, anyway.  Here's how Jenks' season split before and after the All-Star break:

  IP H HR BB K SV ERA OPS
1st Half 41.1 33 2 13 49 26 2.83 .591
2nd Half 28.1 33 3 18 31 15 5.72 .836

Yup.  He was just more hittable, and especially brutal in September. 

Perhaps the strangest thing about Jenks' collapse in the final month of the season was that he started September by striking out the side 1-2-3 for the first time all season.  After K'ing the Royals to death on Sept. 2, he blew a big save against Boston Sept. 4.  The warning flags rose after the Indians knocked him around the park his next outing.  Then the Angels scored on him in the two after that, and Jenks ended up not being much of a factor the rest of the season.

He did provide some great moments in the second half, pitching like a mensch in a key series against the Yankees in August.  In the opener, he pitched 2-2/3 innings of scoreless relief for the win, starting his outing by stranding a runner Neal Cotts left on third with one out in the ninth, then finished off the final game for the save and series win.  It also helped Jenks to rebound from a July that was nearly as shaky as his September.

Jenks excelled at keeping inherited runners from scoring.  He finished second in the American League at stranding runners, behind only Dennys Reyes at 16.7 percent.  When he had his velocity, he also had little problem keeping the ball in the park.  Thanks to his curveball and hard-boring fastball, he had a groundball/flyball ratio of 2.89.

2007 OUTLOOK

It wasn't particularly surprising that Jenks wore down in the second half when adding up all the factors.  It was his first full season in the big-leagues, and a year after he threw 80 combined relief innings between Birmingham and Chicago that didn't include the playoff run. 

Plus, he showed up to camp just a little bit overweight.  He is likely one of the players Ozzie Guillen talked about when complaining about some of his players being out of shape.  Ozzie beat that drum during Spring Training when Jenks showed up at 280 lbs.

As long as Jenks shows up around 260-270 lbs., I'd expect a bigger year from him.  Forty saves is never a gimme, but he should at least improve the rate stats.

PROJECTIONS

Bobby Jenks
 G
 W-L
 IP
 H
 HR BB K ERA
 WHIP
2007 ZiPS
 64
 4-2
 73 63 6
 28 80 3.70 1.25
2007 BJS
 61
 4-3 68 60
 4
 31 80 3.57
 1.34
2007 JCM
 60
 2-3
 66 58 5
 30
 78 3.55 1.33

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