posted on Tuesday, December 19, 2006 11:53 PM by Jim

Jim Thome

ESSENTIALS
2006 OVERVIEW

OFFENSE

Jim Thome had a monster year in 2006.  It just didn't exactly feel like one.

In his first year with the Sox, Thome was an All-Star, finished fifth in slugging and on-base percentage, fourth in RBI, third in homers, third in walks, and cleared 100 RBI for the seventh time in eight years.

On the other hand, it seemed like Thome ended his season flat, which was exactly the opposite of how he started, homering in his first game against his old team, the Cleveland Indians.  Thome's OPSes looked impressive from month to month, but nagging injuries kept him out of the lineup at times.  When he was in the lineup, he crushed right-handed pitching; against lefties, he looked mortal.

The splits say it all:
  • vs. RHP: .321/.454/.749
  • vs. LHP: .236/.354/.361
When Ross Gload hits from the same side of the plate and handily out-performs a $14 million man, it's easy to feel underwhelmed.

It's a bit unfair to Thome, because when the Sox stormed out of the gate, he was the central reason.  He set a major-league record by scoring a run in his first 17 games, and he hit 10 homers in each of the first two months.  He led the Sox in runs scored with 108, and provided plenty of RBI opportunities for Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye, who cashed in plenty of times. 

Thome didn't just hit a ton of homers -- he had terrific timing with a few of them.  His home run off Johan Santana helped the Sox hand him his first loss since God knows when. He tied up a game in Pittsburgh with a pinch-hit big fly.  Of course, most of his homers helped the Sox eliminate the need for clutch at-bats later in the game.

But Thome was simply less effective in the second half.  He hit only 12 homers after the All-Star break, as opposed to 30 before.  Against lefties he was below replacement level, hitting .215/.326/.329 off them after the break.  What's odd is that his walk rate actually went up despite not being able to turn on pitches like he did early in the year.  He walked once every five plate appearances after the break, as opposed to every 6.34 at-bats before.  If I had to guess, it's maybe because he fouled off more pitches by being late, and thus went deeper in counts.  But that's just a guess.

His walks either ignited or aided many a rally in the first half, but with Scott Podsednik, Juan Uribe and Brian Anderson making plenty of outs in front of him, a walk wasn't nearly as good as a hit in the second half.

BASERUNNING

Thome might be as slow as Paul Konerko and A.J. Pierzynski, but he looks like runs faster.  He puts the head down, fists furiously pumping, high strides.  I don't know if it gets him anywhere faster, but I appreciate the effort.

He finished a respectable -7 base running in the Bill James Handbook, which is how I'd generally peg his skills.  The handbook says that he made two outs on the basepaths; I mentioned in A.J. Pierzynski's preview that Thome might not be responsible for one of them, when Pierzynski wasn't paying attention and Thome was thrown out trying to score a run when somebody was going to be the third out. 

The other one I'm aware of was far less excusable, a plain ol' brain fart in Toronto.  Standing on second with Jermaine Dye at the plate, Thome took off for third and then home when Dye hit a fly to right.  The problem was that there was only one out.  Thome was doubled off, and the inning was over.

Joey Cora almost gave him a third baserunning out when he sent him home to certain doom against the Blue Jays earlier in the year, but the throw got past Bengie Molina.  Otherwise, Thome would've been out by 20 feet.

DEFENSE

He seemed fine, from what little we saw of him at first. 

2007 OUTLOOK

When Thome was healthy, there were only a few more dangerous hitters in the big leagues. Even if you factor him getting another year older, he still should be a force if his body cooperates.  Still, it's a little bit unsettling how off he looked against left-handed pitching.  His performance certainly didn't warrant his batting in the top half of the order when a lefty took the mound. 

As long as he's physically able to be in the lineup, I don't foresee Ozzie Guillen scratching his name from the lineup card, because Thome's not being paid to be a platoon player.  On the other hand, I can see it sapping his numbers a bit, especially with the great number of southpaws the Sox will face once again this year.

It's good to know that whatever decline he may experience, it'll be buoyed somewhat by U.S. Cellular Field, which is the best home-run hitting park for lefties in the entire league.

Thome is once again on a stringent conditioning program, the one that helped him rebound from his injury-marred 2005, and Herm Schneider calls him "a very compliant guy" in that regard.  Maybe with a full season under his belt once again, he'll be able to handle the workload better.  Then again, I'd probably give him some more days off if I were Ozzie.

PROJECTIONS

Jim Thome
 AB HR RBI
 BA
 OBP SLG OPS
2007 ZiPS
 434
 34
 101 .270 .407
 .558 .965
2007 BJS
 510
 38
 103 .263 .397 .539 .937
2007 JCM
 472
 37
 96 .275 .401 .575 .976

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