posted on Saturday, December 02, 2006 8:42 PM by Jim

Paul Konerko

ESSENTIALS
2006 OVERVIEW

OFFENSE

After signing a franchise-record five-year, $60 million contract before the season, Konerko lived up to the price in Year One.  He set career highs in batting average (.313), on-base percentage (.381) and slugging (.551), knocked in 100+ runs (113) for the third straight year, and hit 30 doubles for the first time since 2002.  Konerko also hit well with runners in scoring position (.366/.421 /.599), and his clutch stats didn't look too shabby either.  His finest moment of the season came on a game-tying homer off Mariano Rivera in what was a must-win game in August.

He hit only 35 homers after topping 40 the previous two seasons, much of that due to his taking outside-corner pitches the other way when pitchers didn't go inside on him in the second half of the season.  His walks also dropped (60, compared to 81 the season before), but that has plenty to do with Jermaine Dye putting together an MVP-caliber season.  Konerko only saw three intentional walks after cracking double-digits in that category the previous season.

The only true black mark on Konerko's season from a batting perspective?  Grounding into double plays.   His GIDP total of 25 ranked was the second-highest total in his career, just short of the 28 twin killings he hit into when he crapped the bed in 2003.  Here's the weird part about his GIDP total:  He hit into 15 more double plays despite having not only a nearly identical groundball-flyball ratio, but having nearly identical groundball and flyball totals.  Check this out:
  • 2005:  156 grounders, 200 flyballs
  • 2006:  158 grounders, 200 flyballs
Basically, the 150 percent increase in the GIDP column can be traced to Jim Thome.  In 2006, 34.7 percent of Konerko's plate appearances were in force situations, compared to only 26.4 percent in 2005.  Add in that increase with fewer pitchers wanting to walk him and a slower runner in front of him in Thome, and there you go.

Overall, Konerko's stat line looks awfully similar to that of the American League MVP, Justin Morneau, but only received one seventh-place vote.  And Konerko actually hit better in September.  Go figure.

BASERUNNING

The White Sox's general lack of speed forced them to play station-to-station ball a large part of the season, and Konerko was one of the big reasons.  The 2007 Bill James Handbook rates Konerko the 24th-worst baserunner in the majors, and unfortunately, only the third-worst on the White Sox.

Konerko was involved in a handful of embarrassing baserunning displays.  He was thrown out at third base from center field trying to tag up on a flyball for an 8-5 double play.  On more than one occasion, Paulie couldn't score from second on a single that would've provided a key run.  Hell, one time he didn't score from second on a double.

As far as I can tell, he was 1-for-2 in trying to score from first on a double.  I don't know how he was safe the second time.  Strangely enough, Konerko was 1-for-1 in the stolen base department, making it five consecutive successful attempts.

DEFENSE

Putting it plainly, Konerko is considered one of the worst, if not the worst regular first baseman in the league.  He doesn't necessarily look that bad, but when Ross Gload received more playing time while Jim Thome battled nagging injuries, it became clear how little range Konerko possesses around the bag.

He looked especially bad in the final two months -- he helped Kansas City win a game with two errors on Aug. 15, mishanded a Jason Tyner grounder that led to a Javy Vazquez meltdown five days later, and then had himself a two-error day against the Mariners on Sept. 21.  Not shown are the numerous times he looked positively statueesque. 

There are two things that I do like about Konerko at first.  I think he's a better scooper than Gload, and he's decent at making throws.  I don't have much proof of Konerko's scooping either way, but the only one I can remember him missing was the half-assed dig attempt against the Cubs that led to a loss. 

On the other hand, I can recount a number of good throws.  Konerko started two 3-6-1 double plays against the Cardinals, and he pegged Juan Pierre at home during a victory against the Cubs.  He also started the triple play against the Twins during the historic comeback on Mother's Day.

2007 OUTLOOK

Now's not the time for Konerko to stop hitting.  With the roster in flux following next season, this might be the last chance the Sox captain has to lead his team to the World Series during this particular window of opportunity.

Unlike Thome, who struggled to turn on fastballs late in the season after various parts of him flared up, Konerko should continue to be steady if 2006 told us anything.  He did an excellent job of going to right field when pitchers wouldn't give him anything else, and while it reduced his homers, it helped him to get on base at a personal-best rate. 

He's going to continue to be a bad first baseman, and he's not going to get any faster, so he has to hit and stay healthy.  There have been reports about a bad hip, but that didn't slow him down at all last year.  He finished the season strong, and now that mental blocks seem to be out of the way, I'd expect him to start strong next year.

PROJECTIONS

Paul Konerko
 AB HR RBI
 BA
 OBP SLG OPS
2007 ZiPS
555
37115.288.372.535.907
2007 BJS
 566 35 109 .285 .364 .514 .878
2007 JCM
 532
 31 103 .292 .368 .528 .896

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