Meet the Sox

Jon Garland

The California native had a breakthrough season in 2005.  This season he’ll prove if it was for real.

Overview:  Garland had been beautiful in his mediocrity entering last season.  The past three years, he was 36-36, winning 12 games each year.  His ERA+ over those three years was 100, 99, and 100, perfectly average numbers for that stat. 

Most expected Garland to be the team’s fourth starter entering the season, fifth if Jose Contreras got his stuff together.  Garland surprised Sox fans and quieted his critics by making the All-Star team, leading the team in wins with 18 and posting his lowest career ERA – 3.50.  The former first-round pick of the Chicago Cubs had finally come into his own.

Pitching:  The lanky right-hander came out of the gate blazing, winning his first eight decisions.  He cooled down luck-wise, finishing the season 10-10, but his first half wasn’t too different from his second – he had a couple more rough starts, but still posted a respectable 3.65 ERA after the All-Star Break. 

Two factors contributed to his newfound success, and he wouldn’t have had one without the other.  He pitched with a lot more confidence, and he vastly improved his change-up.  The first legitimate off-speed pitch of his career allowed him to attack the strike zone, and the composure he displayed on the mound allowed him to throw that change for strikes in fastball counts.

His walk rate plummeted as he jumped ahead of hitters far more often – he threw four more innings in 2005 than he did the season before, but he walked 29 fewer batters while striking out hitters at the same rate.  He also induced more ground balls than at any point in his career as a full-time starter, which helped keep opponents hitting a career-low .255 off him. 

Before 2005, he was a fastball-sinker pitcher.  Hitters waited for a pitch up in the zone and took it for a ride when Garland obliged.  Now with the changeup, hitters couldn’t time him as easily.   As a result, he cut down his homers allowed total by eight, and more of those big flies were only of the solo variety. 

Garland arguably has benefited more from Ozzie Guillen’s tendency to ride his starters.  While Jerry Manuel would pull him whenever he got in trouble, Ozzie let him try to work his way out of trouble.  In the last two years, he has only allowed seven unearned runs each season, while Mark Buehrle has allowed double-digits in that category.

In the postseason, Garland was solid.  He pitched one of the four straight complete games in the ALCS, then overcame a rocky start in Game 3 of the World Series to put himself in position for the win through seven.  Unfortunately, the bullpen couldn’t keep it for him.

Defense:  Garland has been a fine fielder throughout his career, and 2005 was probably his best performance yet.  With his fluid motion and easy delivery, he puts himself in excellent position for comebackers and bunts.

Not only that, but he was the toughest Sox pitcher to run against – a remarkable feat for not only a righty, but a righty that has to compete with Buehrle on the same staff.  Runners were only successful on three of nine steals, whereas they finished eight of 11 against Buehrle.

2006 Outlook:  Garland surprised many by forgoing the opportunity to test the free-agent market after next season, instead opting to sign a three-year, $29 million contract.  With the way average pitchers are being paid, Garland could’ve seen a contract in the neighborhood of five years and $55 million with another above-average season.

He’ll have a lot of doubters because he doesn’t strike out a lot of guys, and because lots of control-oriented pitchers put up one great year and then fade out – like the Yankees’ $36-million man Carl Pavano, who has disappointed since arriving in the Bronx.  But since Garland has proved that he’s not worse than average, I think Sox fans will continue to be pleasantly surprised.