posted on Monday, March 31, 2008 1:45 AM by Jim

Octavio Dotel

ESSENTIALS
2007 RECAP

When Octavio Dotel wasn't injured in 2007, he was pretty good.

Problem was, he was injured quite a bit.

He began the season by straining his oblique toward the end of spring training, which sidelined him for almost the first two months of the season.  When he returned, he pitched well enough --3.91 ERA, 29 strikeouts in 23 innings -- to be worth Kyle Davies when the Royals traded him to the Atlanta Braves before the deadline.

Sure enough, a right shoulder strain put him on the DL roughly one week into his Atlanta stay, which kept him out of action for the next month.  Outside of two rough outings, Dotel pitched well for Atlanta.  He just didn't pitch enough.

GOOD SIGNS

No. 1: Fastball velocity.  Dotel saw his fastball gain speed for the third straight season, which is a good sign for somebody coming off Tommy John Surgery.

No. 2:  Strikeout rate.  Dotel struck out 41 batters in 30 2/3 innings, and at least one batter in 27 of 33 outings,

No. 3:  Strikes thrown.  During his time with the Braves, Dotel threw 89 of his 113 pitches for strikes, which is a higher percentage than Bobby Jenks' when he retired 41 consecutive batters.

BAD SIGNS

(None of these are truly "bad," just worth monitoring.)

No. 1: Health.  Duh.

No. 2:  Spring stats.  Dotel had the roughest time in Tucson of any Sox reliever, giving up 15 hits and 12 earned runs in 10+ innings.

No. 3:  Health.  Double duh.

2008 OUTLOOK

It'll be a good season if...

...Dotel stays healthy.

The Sox are hoping Dotel will give them what Tom Gordon gave them in 2003, when they signed Gordon for a cheap one-year contract coming off surgery.  Gordon was a stud, then left the Sox to sign a bigger contract with New York (which begat a bigger contract in Philly).

Gordon earned $1.4 million that season.  Dotel will earn nearly 10 times that amount over the next two years, because if Dotel delivers on his potential, he'll easily be worth that.

Dotel will have to clear the health hurdle first.  His 30 2/3 innings pitched last year represented his highest total since 2004.  If he can give the Sox at least 70 with better than a strikeout per inning and all other stats in line, that would be a major achievement.  It would also be what the Sox are paying him for.

PROJECTIONS

Octavio Dotel
 G
 W-L
 IP
 SV
 H
 HR BB K ERA
 WHIP
2008 ZiPS
 27
 2-1
 25
 n/a
 23 4
 11 29 4.32 1.36
2008 BJH
 50
 4-2 55 3 45
 8
 23
 66
 3.60
 1.24
2008 JCM
 45
 3-0
 46
 3
 46 5
 14 55 3.66 1.33

Comments