posted on Monday, March 31, 2008 12:05 AM by Jim

Juan Uribe

ESSENTIALS
2007 RECAP

Juan Uribe continued on the path to bench-player status in 2007.  On top of his lack of plate discipline, his range diminished even more, and his famous hot streaks became harder to find.

Most of it can be summed up in numbers.  His OPS was lower than .700 in four of six months, and he lost nearly 100 points on his batting average with runners in scoring position (.198, down from .287 in 2006).  Uribe also committed a Sox-career-high 17 errors, although his diminishing defense is more evident in the the plus/minus ratings.

The odd thing is that Uribe actually got off to one of the better starts on the team. After a big three-run homer off Fausto Carmona April 13, Uribe was hitting a team-high .321, and only he and Scott Podsednik could claim averages higher than .270.  On top of that, he also drew eight walks in April alone, more than half his 2006 total.

The success didn't last.  He went into a funk for the next month and a half, batting .176/.244/.244 over 36 games reaching into mid-June.  Aside from a decent run here or there -- during the latter, he had numerous key hits -- Uribe didn't provide above-average offense until September, a.k.a. The Month Uribe Always Hits.

While he cost the Sox runs at the plate, his fielding gaffes also cost his team dearly:
On the other hand, he made one of my favorite plays on the year against the Tigers July 23 -- with runners on second and third, Uribe fielded a grounder in the hole.  He saw Curtis Granderson caught in the middle, and went to throw to second before realizing nobody was covering.  Somehow, he didn't let go of the ball, and fired a strike to a running Tadahito Iguchi, who put the tag down before taking a tumble.

GOOD SIGNS

1. He actually walked.  He tied a career high with 34 walks, up from 13 the year before..

2. He rebounded in one clutch category.  Uribe drove in 41.2 percent of runners on third, finished second to Josh Fields (45.5 percent).  It's an improvement over his 2006 (39.3 percent) despite the across-the-board drop in his RISP stats, although it doesn't come close to matching his stellar '05 (62 percent).

3. He improved against lefties.  Cabrera slugged .474 against lefties last year, reversing a trend that had him slightly worse against lefties and unremarkable against either type of pitcher over the last two years.

BAD SIGNS

1. Diminishing range.  As mentioned above.

1. Strikeouts.  The balls-in-play numbers are bad, too, but he cracked 100 strikeouts (112) for only the second time in his career.  Not good for somebody who's doing less and less when he actually makes contact.

3. Stolen bases.  Uribe was 1-for-10 in this category. 

2008 OUTLOOK

It'll be a good season if...

...well, it depends on what other players do.

If Alexei Ramirez can't handle the majors yet, and Danny Richar doesn't rebound his back problems, then Uribe would probably need a biggish year to make the Sox feel better about ditching Tadahito Iguchi so casually.  Probably something better than his 2005, which is a tall order considering Greg Walker is out of answers.

If either Ramirez or Richar can hack it, then Uribe would have a great year if he were able to accept a utility position, even if his production were more in line with his '06 and '07.

PROJECTIONS

Juan Uribe
 AB HR RBI
 BA
 OBP SLG OPS
2007 ZiPS
 511
 21
 64 .250 .302
 .427 .729
2007 BJH
 476
 19
 59 .246 .293 .429 .722
2007 JCM
 402
 15
 44 .242 .287 .402 .689

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