posted on Sunday, March 30, 2008 2:24 AM by Jim

Joe Crede

ESSENTIALS
2007 RECAP

A simple timeline:

Nov. 9, 2006:  Crede opts against back surgery, instead choosing a rigorous strengthening program.

Nov. 12:  Crede wins the Silver Slugger Award for third basemen.

Jan. 16, 2007: Crede signs one-year, $4.94 million contract.

March 29: Crede finishes spring training hitting .328.

May 20:  Crede leaves game against the Cubs with back problems.

May 25:  Crede returns to lineup.

June 5:  Crede misses game because of back problems.

June 12:  Crede undergoes surgery, shelving him for the rest of the year.

GOOD SIGNS

1. No complaints.  Crede has been dinged up this spring, a victim of a foul ball off his ankle and a Mike MacDougal fastball to the hand.  But nothing about his back.

2. He's still got the glove.  After some early throwing woes, Crede appears to have settled down this spring.  He'll be a big help to a pitching staff that doesn't strike a lot of guys out.

BAD SIGNS

1.  Spring stats.  It's not good to make too much of these numbers, but... .172/.226/.276.

2.  Pop-ups.  Lots and lots of pop-ups.  This kind of goes along with is spring line, but he's not unlucky when he makes contact.

3.  A lack of suitors.  San Francisco will likely play themselves out of contention for Crede -- as the losses pile up, there will be even less of a point for giving up talent for a mild upgrade.  Los Angeles could see Andy LaRoche return well before the trade deadline, so after that, there aren't many teams lining up for Crede.  We'll be hearing plenty about his contract situation, and we'll see if he can handle it.

2008 OUTLOOK

It'll be a good season if...

... hmm...

If he's healthy, he'll still be blocking Josh Fields, who was better in 2007 than Crede was in any year besides 2006.  So Crede's going to have to do a little more than stay healthy to make his presence pay off.  Probably a baseline of Fields' 2006 OPS -- .788 -- plus his usual standard of defense would help him towards that goal.

If Crede exceeds that line, then Fields basically loses a year but at no quantifiable loss to the Sox.  If he underperforms, especially as greatly as his spring line might indicate, that's when the situation will grow quite unpleasant.

PROJECTIONS

Joe Crede
 AB HR RBI
 BA
 OBP SLG OPS
2007 ZiPS
 395
 16
 50 .263 .318
 .438 .756
2007 BJH
 438
 20
 55 .260 .308 .450 .758
2007 JCM
 488
 14
 53 .249 .295 .439 .734

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