posted on Sunday, March 23, 2008 2:18 AM by Jim

Mike MacDougal

ESSENTIALS
2007 RECAP

Of all the implosions the Sox bullpen suffered in 2007, none were more dramatic than the one experienced by Mike MacDougal.  The best right-handed reliever during the second half of 2006 struggled to handle physical issues and mental turmoil in his second go-around on the South Side, and the relief corps fell apart in the process.

Some decent numbers in April -- only four hits allowed and 12 strikeouts over 9 2/3 innings -- obscured more troubling ones.  Even his inflated walk rate (six walks in April) belied his control issues:
  • April: 5.58 BB/9 IP, 54.9 percent of pitches for strikes.
  • Rest: 7.36 BB/9 IP, 55.8 percent of pitches for strikes.
Though he issued more free passes after the first month of the season, he actually threw more strikes.  Maybe Greg Walker's good friend Cold Weather helped keep his April numbers in check.

From May on, he grew to be unwatchable.  I remember sitting behind the Sox bullpen during a game against the A's, and a heckler kept yelling "Ball four!" after his warm-up tosses.  He was sent down to Charlotte in early June, only to return when Bret Prinz couldn't get loose.  He walked more batters, then went on the DL for right shoulder inflammation July 6.

When he came back in August, he appeared to have regained his stuff.  In his triumphant return, he shut down the Yankees with two walkless, scoreless innings, striking out three.  He made Alex Rodriguez look silly with a slider, and overpowered Derek Jeter with a fastball.  For 10 innings in August, he appeared to be back on track -- three runs, six hits, two walks, 10 strikeouts, all acceptable numbers.

Then came a disastrous outing against Boston.  And a meltdown against the Indians started by a bad hop off the lip of the infield. By the last game of the season -- during which he retired one of the five batters he faced -- he was right back where he started.

GOOD SIGNS

No. 1: Juan Nieves is the new bullpen coach.  For all his struggles in Chicago, he didn't bring them to Charlotte in either of his two stints with the Knights.  He didn't allow an earned run over 8 2/3 innings, during which he gave up only seven hits and two walks while striking out 11.  It's entirely possible that the difference in numbers is merely a reflection of the decrease in quality of Triple-A hitters, but MacDougal did credit Nieves with helping him through some control issues, for what it's worth.

No. 2:  BABIP.  MacDougal should get some luck on his side, as he allowed a .359 batting average on balls in play.  Granted, part of this is what we can call Dewon Day Disease (.401 BABIP in majors, .481 in Birmingham), in which BABIP is high because the pitches that actually find the strike zone are so damn hittable.

BAD SIGNS

No. 1: Control.  Along with the walks, MacDougal also threw eight wild pitches.

No. 2:  Grounders down.  Entering the season, MacDougal was a gem among relievers because along with his strikeouts, he also induced an insane number of groundballs.  He saw a big hit in both categories in 2007.

No. 3:  Thin skin.  MacDougal surprised Ozzie Guillen by smiling this spring, something he hasn't been able to do for much of the past year.  He's going to need every ounce of sunshine, because fans will be on him at the first sign of struggles.  The bullpen simply put the crowds at U.S. Cellular through too much last year, and MacDougal is the designated whipping boy.

I could go on and on, but everything was bad with MacDougal, so we'll stop at three.

2008 OUTLOOK

It'll be a good season if...

...MacDougal can be trusted to hold a 10-run lead.

That's somewhat of an exaggeration, but not by much.  With the additions of Scott Linebrink and Octavio Dotel, MacDougal will not be expected to handle many high-leverage situations by himself.

He'll help himself out a ton simply by cutting the walks.  Unless a game goes into the 13th inning, he's not going to find himself in situations where one swing makes a difference.  I'm sure everybody will take more hits and a few more homers as long as he doesn't give bases away for free.  I don't know if there is such a thing as a good walk that early in the game.

The bad news is that he has a lot of work to do on that front.  He'll probably only be able to succeed if he cuts his walks in half -- and that's being generous, as that (3.5 per nine innings) would be still well above his walk rate between his '05 and '06 seasons (2.72). 

Fortunately, MacDougal still has an option left, so the Sox can ship him to Charlotte again if he can't regain his mojo.  The only cost is money.

PROJECTIONS

Mike MacDougal
 G
 W-L
 IP
 SV
 H
 HR BB K ERA
 WHIP
2008 ZiPS
 59
 5-3
 51
 n/a
 48 5 25 46 4.06 1.43
2008 BJH
 59
 3-3 52 0 51
 3
 26
 47
 4.15
 1.48
2008 JCM
 31
 0-2
 32
 0 33 3
 18 26 5.22 1.60

Comments