posted on Monday, March 17, 2008 12:21 AM
by
Jim
Gavin Floyd
ESSENTIALS
- Contract
- Arbitration-eligible next season
- Stats
2007 RECAP
Gavin Floyd entered 2007 spring training with the inside track on the fifth starter job. The Sox had liked what they saw from Floyd in winter ball, and acquired him from Philadelphia along with Gio Gonzalez for Freddy Garcia with designs on turning his career around.
The process went slower than expected, to say the least. Floyd nibbled too much for Ozzie Guillen's liking, and a strike-throwing John Danks joined the major-league staff while Floyd headed to Charlotte.
It took Floyd a couple months to turn it on in Charlotte. Through the end of May, his overall line didn't look awful (2-3, 4.09 ERA), but he had gone more than a full month without a quality start under his belt.
He turned things around in June, going 3-0 with a 1.43 ERA, and allowing only 33 baserunners in 37 1/3 innings. It helped him earn an International League All-Star appearance, as well as his first shot at pitching with the Sox in the regular season. Floyd gave up four homers over 5 2/3 innings
in a 12-0 loss to the Twins, and was sent down the next day.
Floyd bounced back and forth between the bullpen and rotation after being called up for good July 24 (starting the back end of another doubleheader), and outside of giving up three of
the Yankees' single-game record eight homers at the end of July, he didn't look bad out of the bullpen. But Jose Contreras' struggles and John Danks' decline led to enough regular rotation work for Floyd to serve as a starter the rest of the season.
He pitched well enough to give him some momentum entering the regular season, with a respectable 1.32 WHIP and 4.04 ERA in August and September. He didn't get the wins to show for it, but six of his eight starts over that stretch were quality ones.
GOOD SIGNS
No. 1: Strong finish. Floyd experienced unprecedented success at both Triple-A and the major leagues over the last two months.
No. 2: Walk rate. Floyd's reluctance to attack the strike zone didn't just pop up in spring training -- it'd been the story of his career with the Phillies, too. He cut his walk total dramatically with the Sox, issuing only 2.44 per nine innings, as opposed to 5.03 with Philadelphia.
No. 3: Tiger taming. In August and September, Floyd faced Detroit three times and only allowed two runs over 19 innings.
BAD SIGNS
No. 1: Home runs. Floyd served up 17 gopher balls over 70 innings, good for 2.18 per nine innings. For context's sake, that's just a shade under Jose Lima's rate (2.20) when
Lima Time challenged Bert Blyleven for the single-season record of home runs allowed back in 2000. For additional context, Lima's ERA was a whopping 6.65 that year.
No. 2: Underwhelming curve ball. Floyd actually got
far more swings and misses on his slider, which was considered his third-best pitch, than his curve.
Keith Law's scouting of Floyd seems to agree with the numbers, which isn't good since that's supposed to be his bread and butter.
No. 3: What about expectations? While Floyd posted nice numbers in the last two months of the season, they were undoubtedly in garbage time. And while his Triple-A numbers were the best of his career, it was his third straight year at that level (with a cup of coffee in another). He still hasn't shown he can be counted on to deliver when the team needs him, and they most definitely will need him this season.
2008 OUTLOOKIt'll be a good season if...
I waver back and forth on Floyd. When he succeeds, it's no accident, because he does have some big pitches in his arsenal. He just has a hell of a time carrying that success over not just from start to start, but sometimes inning to inning. Whether that inconsistency is due to his mechanics (he slings the ball more than other Sox pitchers) or head (
Joe Cowley called him "Gavin Fraud" last year) is beyond my scope of knowledge. The cozy confines of the Cell will likely hurt his numbers as well.
I'd consider it a small miracle if he managed to keep his ERA under 5.00, and a bigger one if he pitched 200 innings. I'd probably settle for something in the 5.20 range and 175, because while the White Sox say he has No. 2 starter stuff, I don't see him putting it together in the near future.
PROJECTIONS
Gavin Floyd
|
G
|
W-L
|
IP
|
H
|
HR |
BB |
K |
ERA
|
WHIP |
2008 ZiPS
|
29
|
11-10
|
161 |
189 |
29 |
69 |
98 |
5.87
|
1.60 |
2008 BJS
|
30
|
6-13 |
165 |
193
|
26
|
71 |
121 |
5.89
|
1.60
|
2008 JCM
|
26
|
8-14
|
152 |
171 |
30
|
49 |
109 |
5.39 |
1.45
|