Meet the Sox

Jerry Owens

ESSENTIALS

• Contract
  
  • Not eligible for arbitration until 2011
    
• Stats
  • Baseball-Reference.com page
  • ESPN.com current stats
  • FanGraphs
    
  • First Inning
  • PECOTA
    

2007 RECAP

While Darin Erstad and Scott Podsednik alternated trips to the DL, Jerry Owens quietly established himself as a successor to the slap-hitting outfielder's throne.  The key word is "quietly," because Owens didn't make much noise with the bat -- especially in his first attempt to stick in the majors.

Owens received his first opportunity to stake a claim in the outfield when Erstad injured himself swinging a bat at the end of May.  Owens promptly hit .170 with a .214 OBP in Erstad's absence over 53 at-bats, and he returned to Charlotte when Erstad returned to Chicago.

He received another opportunity when Erstad re-injured his ankle running in center field in early June.  After an inconspicious start, he banged out two hits in each game of a three-game set with the Minnesota Twins and he was on his way.

Of course, all six of those hits against Minnesota were singles, setting the tone for Owens' rather empty batting average.  At one point, he went 128 at-bats without an extra-base hit, and he never had more than one extra-base hit in a game.

(Oddly enough, he began his first call-up with a double in each of his first two games.  The opponent? The Toronto Blue Jays.  That's kind of funny -- to me, anyway -- because that's the team that allowed Owens' only career homer to date, as he homered off Roy Halladay July 28.)

He did make up some ground in the category of stolen bases, successful on 32 of 40 attempts, but his usage on the basepaths became a point of contention with me.  In two consecutive games against the Indians in early August, Owens stood on first with no outs in a close and late situation.  With Victor Martinez behind the plate, somebody with Owens's speed -- and also his lack of power -- should've been running by himself.

He didn't run in neither situation.  The Sox lost the first game and won the second, but Owens didn't score either time.

GOOD SIGNS

1. Strong finish.  He hit .340/.396/.371 in September.  It was garbage time for the Sox, but at the same time, September isn't a great hitter's month.

2. He covered ground in center.  Owens scored +11 in John Dewan's plus-minus system, putting him squarely in the top 25 percent at that position, far better than Torii Hunter.

3. He didn't run into outs.  I'll take 80 percent from a guy who isn't used to stealing off major-league pitchers and catchers.  He also scored well in the Bill James Handbook's baserunning scoring (+12).

BAD SIGNS

1. No pop.  Thirteen extra-base hits in 356 at-bats is pretty bad, especially considering...

2. Mediocre walk/strikeout rates.  ...Owens is not a master of the strike zone.  He doesn't make pitchers afraid to throw him strikes, because the worst outcome possible is a single in most cases.

3. His arm.  According to John Walsh at The Hardball Times, Owens had the third-worst arm of any regular center fielder.  Unfortunately, Nick Swisher had the fourth-worst arm in that same spot.

2008 OUTLOOK

It'll be a good season if...

...Owens masters the hell out of the bunting game.

It's a sad state of affairs when bunting plays a significant part in how an offense functions, but that's how it could play out if Ozzie Guillen installs Owens at the top of the order and remains steadfast with that decision.

Owens gained 10 pounds of muscle, but he's already 27, and it's hard to imagine that he'll be able to gain considerable power this late in the game.  Often times, the best contact he made ended up in the left fielder's glove roughly 250 feet away from home plate.

Will 10 pounds of muscle add another 100 feet?  Probably not.  So Owens will have to bunt, slap and run, try to reach on errors and steal his way to glory.  It's a risky way to make a living these days, but it's a risk Guillen has always been willing to take.

Anything under a .350 OBP would be hard to swallow, barring an unforeseen power surgery.  He would probably have to reach .370 or .380 in that category to truly be considered "valuable," and I don't see that happening.

PROJECTIONS

Jerry Owens	AB	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2007 ZiPS	494	5	44	.261	.325	.338	.663
2007 BJS	430	3	34	.274	.340	.340	.680
2007 JCM	466	1	24	.268	.329	.322	.651