posted on Thursday, March 06, 2008 1:13 AM by Jim

Paul Konerko

ESSENTIALS
2007 RECAP

After three All-Star-caliber seasons at first base for the Chicago White Sox, Paul Konerko suffered a setback in 2007.  We know from his abysmal 2003 season that he could've done far, far worse, but then again, some of the signs are there.

He definitely brought back memories of four seasons past with the way he started.  Cold weather, Greg Walker's arch nemisis, positively froze Konerko's bat at the start of the season.  In his first 75 plate appearances, he was hitting .175/.307/.286 with a couple of disastrous games in the first couple weeks.  To borrow from Jim Thome's preview:
  • April 19:  In a 6-4 win against the Rangers, Thome went 0-for-0 with five walks.  Konerko went 0-for-4, stranding eight runners.
  • April 22:  In a 6-5 loss to the Tigers, Thome walked three times.  Konerko, hitting fourth, went 0-for-6, stranding eight runners again.
Slowly but surely, Konerko eventually warmed up, kicking into gear around May 19, when he hit a solo homer against the Cubs.  He'd carry the hot streak over the next two and a half months -- .321/.408/.622 -- but the Sox's overall lack of baserunners gave him a Jeff Liefer-like 43 RBI on 18 homers over that stretch.

He faded down the stretch, possibly due to minor, undisclosed injuries.  To my knowledge, the Sox never said specifically what was wrong with him, but there were some days in the final two months where Konerko was simply described as "unavailable."

It was a below-average season by his standards, though he wasn't the biggest problem on the 2007 White Sox by any means, at least with the bat.  His biggest failings may have come in the captain's role.  During a year when the Sox needed a major shake-up, Konerko didn't want to rock the boat.  Kenny Williams met with Konerko in mid-June to assess what changes need to be made, and Konerko couldn't think of any.

Since then, Konerko has resolved to be more vocal as a leader.  We'll see if he has it in him.

GOOD SIGNS

1. That hot streak.  Konerko probably wasn't as bad as his overall line indicated -- he was terrible with everybody else in the first month, but when the Sox were battling for their lives in vain through June and July, he was leading the way.

2. Walk rate up.  He drew 18 more walks in seven fewer plate appearances while keeping his strikeout rate the same.  It probably has a lot to do with Jermaine Dye's massive drop in performance, but in a lineup that's starved for patient hitters, he seems to be on the right track still.

3. BABIP.  Konerko saw a big drop in his batting average on balls in play, so he should be able to rebound a little bit just based on luck alone.

BAD SIGNS

1. The beginning and end to his year.  No matter how you slice it, he posted a sub-.800 OPS in four of six months, which is not going to cut it from first base.

2. Line drive rate.  A significant part of the reason his BABIP was down last year was because he hit fewer line drives than at any point in his career.  Konerko's not exactly fast enough to beat out grounders.

3. Decreasing power.  Along with his home run total, his isolated power also dropped for the third straight year. 

2008 OUTLOOK

It'll be a good season if...

Konerko is one of many players who will have to start right and stay right if the Sox are to have any chance of usurping the Cleveland Indians and Detroit Tigers in the AL Central.  The good news is that time is on his side -- not in terms of his age, but rather because it's an even-numbered year.

Here are Konerko's lines at the end of May in odd-numbered years:
  • 1999:  .245/.291/.403
  • 2001:  .240/.305/.441
  • 2003:  .206/.280/.306
  • 2005:  .223/.336/.462
And in even-numbered years:
  • 2000:  .268/.330/.497
  • 2002:  .333/.366/.510
  • 2004:  .276/.383/.497
  • 2006:  .291/.368/.577
Basically, he's on the opposite cycle of Reggie Sanders, and he needs to continue that trend.  Konerko says he's more comfortable leading by example, and with Nick Swisher and Orlando Cabrera able to share clubhouse responsibilities, all Konerko will have to do is lead by example.  A .360+ OBP and .500+ slugging percentage would probably be OK, as long as he didn't disappear for several weeks at a time.

PROJECTIONS

Paul Konerko
 AB HR RBI
 BA
 OBP SLG OPS
2008 ZiPS
 549
 29
 101 .262 .347
 .478 .825
2008 BJH
 549
 29
 77 .275 .365 .501 .866
2008 PECOTA
 525
 27
 85 .267 .355 .479 .834
2008 JCM
 520
 29
 90 .281 .361 .502 .863

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