posted on Sunday, February 24, 2008 1:44 AM by Jim

Pablo Ozuna

ESSENTIALS
2007 RECAP

The first year of Pablo Ozuna's contract extension didn't turn out so well.  The Secret Weapon broke his leg on a bad step rounding first against Tampa Bay May 27th and was out for the season, and even before that point, he resembled the Ozuna after the 2006 All-Star break.

Oddly enough, he was one of the few to sport a comely batting average in April.  After a 2-for-5 day against Detroit, he and Jim Thome each were hitting .333 -- and the next highest clip was Rob Mackowiak's .238.  Of course, Ozuna went 0-for-5 the next day, a 1-for-18 slump followed, and Ozuna joined his teammates in the Land of the Lost thereafter.

Game-to-game, he wasn't that bad.  He actually had an eight-game hit streak, but the problem was that he had one walk, one HBP and zero extra-base hits during that stretch. All in all, his numbers were pretty much empty.  Ozuna drew three walks over 85 plate appearances, and one of them came on four pitches when Joel Zumaya couldn't find the strike zone, and Ozuna was forced to take all the way.

Here's an example of how sad the Sox were -- Ozuna appeared as a designated hitter in five of his 27 games.  On one occasion, with a runner on third and one out, the DHing Ozuna bunted.  Yup, that was the season.

GOOD SIGNS

1. Stolen bases.  Ozuna was 3-for-3 in this department, one year after he finished 6-for-12.

2. Defensive positioning.  If Ozzie Guillen gives Juan Uribe the utility infielder role, that may mean more appearances at second for Ozuna instead of third, where he looked unsure of himself last year.  He also shouldn't see much time in the outfield, as the Sox have four legitimate ones if Jerry Owens improves a reasonable amount.

BAD SIGNS

1. Batting average.  Ever since he pulled up lame after a single against the Cubs in late June 2006, Ozuna has failed to regain the magic that had him hitting .400 over the first three months of that season.  He's been hitting .240 for a solid five months now, and since his game is entirely reliant on batting average, it's hard to find any value in his production.

2. Baserunning.  By my count, Ozuna was thrown out on the basepaths on two occasions.  Considering he reached base maybe 25-30 times when adding fielder's choices and errors to his hit, walk and HBP totals, and that's an awful ratio.

2008 OUTLOOK

It'll be a good season if...

...Ozuna is more of a bench player than he's ever been with the Sox.  We haven't seen him at second nearly enough to gauge his capabilities there, but watching him at third and left shows that he's not able to handle those positions defensively for more than a game at a time.

From my viewpoint, he has three specific uses:
  1. Third in line at second, third, short, first and left field.
  2. Bunting/contact hitting.
  3. Pinch-running.
If Danny Richar doesn't take a huge step back, it's hard to envision a situation in which Ozuna should see 150 plate appearances.  His usage should probably resemble the way Willie Harris was used in 2003, after he had the starting job taken away from him.  Over his last 42 games, he had 34 plate appearances, and that included some late-season starts after the Sox were eliminated from the playoff race.

This is assuming Ozuna continues to be a .240 hitter.  If he finds another month or so of luck, then Ozzie Guillen should ride it for as long as possible.  It's just hard to see Ozuna coming close to adequate production considering one of the appendages he uses to leg out infield hits was fractured last season.

PROJECTIONS

Pablo Ozuna
 AB HR RBI
 BA
 OBP SLG OPS
2008 ZiPS
 166
 1
 15 .271 .311
 .349 .660
2008 PECOTA
 96
 1
 9 .266 .304 .324 .628
2008 JCM
 165
 0
 7 .251 .295 .322 .617

Comments