posted on Sunday, February 10, 2008 11:05 PM by Jim

Matt Thornton

ESSENTIALS
2007 RECAP

Matt Thornton picked a good year to be bad.  The tall, hard-throwing lefty disappointed after his breakout 2006 season, but he managed to do so discreetly.  He didn't develop strike zone phobia like Mike MacDougal or get pummeled like Nick Masset -- he just was hit a little harder a little more often.

Fortunately for him, few noticed (at least those with louder voices than a blog's).  He started off poorly, but Mike MacDougal and David Aardsma blew away hitters all April.  He rebounded with a strong may, while the rest of the bullpen severely collapsed, making Thornton look sterling by comparison.  When he was bad again in June, Aardsma had blown up, Bret Prinz couldn't get loose, along with a bunch of other various injuries and failures throughout the team.

What's interesting is that Thornton attributed his struggles to his improved control.  Hitters weren't scared of getting hit, so they were able to settle in.  I have two different theories:

Diminished velocity:  I don't have the exact numbers for Thornton's slower fastball, but here's one way to illustrate it:  In the Bill James Handbook, it lists the top 10 in each category.  For the 2006 season, it had Thornton throwing 473 pitches 95 m.p.h. or faster, 10th in the American League.  He wasn't listed in the 2008 handbook, but Brandon Morrow finished 10th with 470. 

Thornton threw 82 more pitches, and if he were to have finished 11th on the list with 469 pitches faster than 94 m.p.h, he would've suffered at least a 5 percent drop in that category.  It seemed like he was routinely in the 92-94 m.p.h. range, but Josh Kalk's Pitch F/X data has him at 95.24 m.p.h.

No second pitch:  Three examples jump out when thinking of Thornton shying away from throwing his slider:

May 27:  With the game tied at 4, two outs and a runner on first, Thornton comes in to face Carl Crawford.  On his seventh straight fastball, Crawford triples off the center field wall, giving the Rays a 5-4 lead.  They won 11-6.

June 7:  Thornton enters with the game tied at 1, runners on the corners, one out and Bobby Abreu at the plate.  Thornton throws three straight fastballs to get ahead 1-2.  He then throws another fastball out of the strike zone.  On his fifth straight fastball, Abreu finally times it and rips a double into the right-center gap.  Two runs score, Yankees go on to win 7-3.

June 13:  With the bases loaded, two outs and Aaron Rowand at the plate, Thornton jumps ahead 0-2 with two fastballs.  He throws a third one, and Rowand turns on it for a grand slam, extending the Phillies' lead to 8-3.

Without a second pitch to keep hitters honest, and with his first pitch not as fearsome as it was, hitters had an easier time with Thornton's stuff in his second year with the Sox.  He did finish the season with two solid months -- 3.86 ERA, 27 strikeouts over 23 1/3 innings -- but even so, it didn't come close to his season-long sample in 2006.

GOOD SIGNS

No. 1: Limited homers.  One category in which Thornton improved was home runs allowed.  Once his Achilles' heel in Seattle, he gave up only four in 56 1/3 innings in 2007, even better than his five in 53 innings the year before.

No. 2:  BABIP.  Part of Thornton's struggles in 2007 could be attributed to purely bad luck.  His batting average on balls in play jumped from .273 in 2006 to .340 in 2007.  The average is around .300.  The Sox's defense will likely get worse, but he should regress to the mean at least somewhat

No. 3:  Stands tall.  I've said it before, and I'll say it again -- the guy has dynamite posture.  I don't know what this means, but it can't be bad.

BAD SIGNS

No. 1: Velocity down, no second pitch.  See above.  BABIP ebbs and flows based on luck, but part of spike in his hit rate (1.8 hits more per nine innings) was his own doing, based on these two factors.

No. 2:  Lefties hit him better.  Lefties' OPS against Thornton increased from .569 in 2006 to .800 in 2007.  In fact, lefties hit Thornton better than righties did (.771).

No. 3:  Walks.  If 2007 was more indicative of his natural ability to prevent hits than 2006, he's going to have to cut his walks, which increased slightly in 2007.

2008 OUTLOOK

It'll be a good season if...

Thorndog enters the 2007 season as the No. 1 lefty for the third straight year, and he'll have to pitch like it.  His inability to retire lefties led to the signing of Mike Myers and situations like five different relievers for five consecutive pitches, so if he can smooth out his issues, it will save everybody some agita.

That said, I would consider it a success if he at least lived up to effective LOOGY standards.  He's shown the ability to be much more, but that'll be his first hurdle, since that's usually the first type of batter he faces.  If his innings per outing grew closer to 1.0 instead of further away, and his ERA fell under 4.00 as a result of a more normal BABIP, I'd call it adequate.

PROJECTIONS

Matt Thornton
 G
 W-L
 IP
 SV
 H
 HR BB K ERA
 WHIP
2008 ZiPS
 59
 3-4
 54
 n/a
 50 9 30 53 5.17 1.48
2008 BJH
 68
 4-2 63 1 60
 8
 34
 60
 4.43
 1.49
2008 JCM
 66
 3-3
 58
 1 57 5
 24 55 4.02 1.36

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