Meet the Sox

Nick Swisher

ESSENTIALS

• Contract
  
  • 08: $3.5M, 09: $5.3M, 10: $6.75M, 11: $9M, 12: $10.25M club option ($1M buyout)
  • 2012 option increases to $12M with top 5 in MVP vote any year 2007-11
  • Limited no-trade clause 2011-12 (may block deals to 6 clubs)
• Stats
  • Baseball-Reference.com page
  • ESPN.com current stats
  • FanGraphs
    
  • First Inning
  • PECOTA
    

2007 RECAP

Nick Swisher continued his steady climb to the top tier of MLB talent in 2007, serving as one of the few steady sources of offense for the injury-ravaged Oakland A's.  His home run total took a a hit (22, down from 35 in 2006), likely because of the lack of support.  He cracked 100 walks for the first time in his career, and 12 of those were intentional, good for fifth in the American League.

"Consistent" would be a good word to use for Swisher's season at the plate  He topped an .800 OPS in five of six months, with a .216/.344/.304 June the only blemish.  More remarkable is that he managed to stay focused at the plate despite not having a set position in the field.

Injuries to Mark Kotsay and Milton Bradley forced Swisher to play center in 59 of his 150 games, after only appearing there twice in his big-league career.  He played 57 in right field, 44 at first, and appeared as a designated hitter the other five games.  By all metrics, he was a subpar defender in McAfee Coliseum's expansive outfield, but not Rob Mackowiak Bad™, merely an ordinary below-average.

GOOD SIGNS

1. Walks up, strikeouts down.  Look at those (low) rates:

• PAs per walk:
• 2005: 9:49 | 2006: 6.93 | 2007: 6.59
  
• PAs per strikeout:
• 2005: 4.75 | 2006: 4.42 | 2007: 5.03
  

Both are going in the right direction, which is rare for a Sox player.  He's going to have triple-digit strikeouts because he lives deep into counts -- he finished seventh in the American League with 4.25 pitches per plate appearance.  Even so, his totals aren't that bad, especially when considering he does have his slumps, like when he struck out 17 times in eight games late last year.

2. Road splits. Swisher sported a road OPS of .850, compared to .820 at home, and he hit only eight of his 22 homers in Oakland.  Here's a fun thought -- compare the left-handed hitter home run index for each park according to the Bill James Handbook.  The following is how they score from 2005-07 (100 is average, over is friendlier):

• The Cell: 140 (first in the AL)
• McAfee: 90 (10th in the AL)

We could be in for some fireworks.

3. Excellent baserunning.  I mentioned this before, but according to the Handbook, Swisher scored a +12 in baserunning despite no added stolen base value, improving from +5 the year before.

BAD-ISH SIGNS

1. Home run rate.  Swisher pretty much traded homers for doubles -- he lost 13 in the former category, but gained 12 in the latter.  Pitchers might've been careful around him, though, since he had inconsistent support around him.

2. BABIP.  Last year was the first time Swisher hit the league average in batting average on balls in play.  Usually high-strikeout power guys clear the bar easily because when they do make contact, it's hard to get a glove on it, like Jim Thome, or for someone more in line with Swisher's power output, Raul Ibanez.

For the guys who routinely undershoot the BABIP, it's more than luck.  Joe Crede is a good example -- he's a fairly good contact hitter, but he also hits a lot of weak pop-ups on bad pitches, so that explains why he'd underperform in this category on a regular basis.  I haven't watched Swisher enough to develop a theory, but it's something to look for.

2008 OUTLOOK

It'll be a good season if...

There are so many reasons to be excited about the Swisher era -- the insanely reasonable contract, the improving peripherals, the transition to a hitter's ballpark -- that it almost looks too good to be true.  Part of me fears a Brad Wilkerson situation, where a guy with promising numbers in a pitcher's paradise goes to a bandbox and promptly craps the bed.

(That comparison is actually decent on paper, at least before Wilkerson's 2005.  Along with their similar AVG/OBP/SLG lines and walk-strikeout totals, both are unremarkable outfielders who played all three positions and first base, both throw lefty ... I'm starting to scare myself here.)

At any rate, if Swisher's career road OPS is .850, that should be a pretty good baseline for a successful season.  Theoretically, the natural home edge most hitters experience factored in with the boost the Cell provides should balance out a dip in his 2008 away stats.

I might be a little disappointed if that's all there was, because Swisher's as much of a breakout candidate as anybody.  But as Wilkerson's example teaches us, any improvement over his already quality numbers would suffice.  Let's not be greedy.

PROJECTIONS

Nick Swisher	AB	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2008 ZiPS	518	31	90	.272	.384	.515	.899
2008 PECOTA	531	31	93	.265	.373	.501	.874
2008 JCM	522	36	101	.268	.390	.512	.902