posted on Tuesday, February 05, 2008 1:59 AM by Jim

Javier Vazquez

ESSENTIALS
2007 RECAP

Looking at it one way, Javier Vazquez was the luckiest pitcher on the White Sox in 2007.  Looking at it another way, he worked hard for every bit of success he achieved.

Though the White Sox finished 18 games under .500, Vazquez went 15-8.  Hawk Harrelson liked to call him the best under-.500 pitcher he's ever seen, but with seven more wins than losses (a single-season high), he finished the year with a career mark of 115-113.

Part of it was due to run support.  The Sox offense provided Javy 5.23 runs per game, roughly one more run than either Jon Garland or Mark Buehrle received.  However, he made those runs work for him by being the least reliant on his defense.

Vazquez struck out 213 batters in 216 1/3 innings, good for fourth in the AL and the second-highest total in modern Sox history to Gary Peters' 215 in 1967.  He did set a record for the frequency of his Ks though, striking out 8.85 per nine innings, topping Juan Pizarro's mark of 8.69 set in 1961.

But not only did Vazquez prevent balls in play -- he also finished in the top 10 with 2.08 walks per nine innings.

Of course, everybody knew he had fantastic peripherals, even in his down years.  In order to be worth the contract extension he received last year, he had to be more than Five-and-Dive Vazquez.

He quieted a lot of doubters, to say the least.  It'd be easier to single out the games in which he resembled his 2006 form:
  • May 19:  After the Sox take a 3-2 lead in the fourth, Vazquez gives up two homers in the fifth to hand the game back to the Cubs, including one to Jason Marquis.
  • May 27:  Staked to a 4-2 lead in the sixth, Vazquez gives up a two-run shot to Carlos Pena.  An inning later, Matt Thornton allows an inherited runner on first to score with two outs on a Carl Crawford triple.
  • June 17:  After the Sox scored five runs to take a 5-3 lead in the fifth inning, Vazquez allowed Pittsburgh to tie it up in the bottom half.  Then again, Juan Uribe gave the Pirates an extra out to work with that inning, leading to a two-run, two-out double.
  • July 14:  Vazquez gives up two homers in the sixth, turning a 5-1 game into a 5-4 game.  The Sox lose to the Orioles in extra innings.
Fortunately, these starts are only worth mentioning because of what he did in 2006.   They weren't indicative of Vazquez's season as a whole, they were just isolated unfortunate turns of events in an otherwise outstanding season.

Outside of a rough three-start stretch in May, Vazquez threw like the guy everybody thought they saw when the Yankees signed him before the '04 season.  He rarely missed quality starts in consecutive outings, and he pitched consecutive complete-game victories over Baltimore and Minnesota in July, walking zero both times.

He finished the season with 42 strikeouts in his last 29 1/3 innings, which is reminiscent of how he finished 2006 -- except this time, he went 4-0 instead of 0-4.

GOOD SIGNS

No. 1: He's a workhorse.  Over the last two years, Vazquez is the only Sox starter with no injury concerns -- no shoulder knots, sciatica or fatigue issues.  He averaged 108.3 pitches a start, second to Daisuke Matsuzaka (108.5), but only threw 120 pitches in a start once, in the aforementioned complete game against the Twins.  Matsuzaka did that six times.

No. 2:  Strikeouts and walks.  Vazquez's strikeout rate in 2007 was the second-highest of his career.  Along with that, he knocked nearly half a walk off his BB/9 IP rate.  He also hit seven batters, down from 15 the year before.  Woo!

No. 3:  Line drive rate.  Vazquez set a career low in his category.

GRAY AREA

No. 1: A lack of big games.  Just about everything is working in Vazquez's favor -- practically all his rates are going in the right direction, and he even held runners well (40 percent caught-stealing rate).  But the most ardent Vazquez detractors will look at his 2007 season and say, "Funny how he rebounded with a fourth-place team."

On paper, the Sox look like they could compete if a lot of things go right.  Vazquez is near the top of that list, in that he's too talented to succumb to meltdowns every other outing like he did two years ago.  He has the best stuff on the staff, and the Sox are counting on it, big-time.

2008 OUTLOOK

It'll be a good season if...

He repeats his 2007, at the very least, in terms of overall effectiveness.  With three question marks in the back end of the rotation, the Sox really can't afford anything less.

PROJECTIONS

Javier Vazquez
 G
 W-L
 IP
 H
 HR BB K ERA
 WHIP
2008 ZiPS
 31
 13-9
 201 200 26 50 172 4.07 1.24
2008 BJS
 30
 13-12 218 214
 29
 53 196 3.80
 1.22
2008 JCM
 32
 15-12
 211 201 30
 48 205 4.08 1.18

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