Meet the Sox

Jim Thome

ESSENTIALS

• Contract
  
  • 08: $14M, 09: $13M club option ($3M buyout)
• Stats
  • Baseball-Reference.com page
  • ESPN.com current stats
  • FanGraphs
    
  • First Inning
  • PECOTA
    

2007 RECAP

Jim Thome showed signs of entering his decline phase for good in 2007 -- he missed about a dozen more games due to injury and for most of the season, he wasn't quite the force as he was in his first year on the South Side.  Still, he managed to be the only hitter in the Sox lineup consistently capable of making a pitcher work.

He must not have received the memo that it was too cold to hit in April, because hitting is all he did.  This is fun:

• Thome in April: .340/.553/.680
• Rest of team:  .217/.294/.358

Need another indication of how much Greg Walker's crew sucked in April?  After Thome hit his fifth homer, it boosted his RBI total to eight.  Teams pitched around him more often than not, because Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye didn't scare anybody.  A couple of prime examples:

• April 19:  In a 6-4 win against the Rangers, Thome went 0-for-0 with five walks.  Konerko went 0-for-4, stranding eight runners.
  
• April 22:  In a 6-5 loss to the Tigers, Thome walked three times.  Konerko, hitting fourth, went 0-for-6, stranding eight runners again.
  

Unfortunately, injuries set in shortly thereafter.  He strained a muscle in his rib cage against the Royals April 23, and then re-injured it with his first in-game swing against the Angels four days later, resulting in his first stint on the DL.  He returned 22 days later, and save a five-RBI day in a win over Oakland May 22, he wasn't quite the same hitter.

Come July 1, hs slugging percentage dipped from .680 to .488, as he slugged only .402 through May and June.  He had another power outage after the All-Star break -- after hitting a homer in the first game of the second half, he slugged only .364 over the next month of baseball.

Thome snapped out of it with a two-homer game in Seattle, and ended the season in country-strong fashion with several highlights along the way:

• He continued to terrorize the Twins, homering in each game of a three-pack in Minnesota.  His three-run homer played a huge part in the Sox's momentous six-run rally, cutting the Piranhas' lead to one.  He hit a go-ahead single in the second game as well.
• Oh, and he homered in both contests against Minnesota later in the month.
• A two-homer game against the Royals Sept. 19.
  

In the middle of his Shermanesque September, he hit a walk-off against the Angels that capped off a six-run comeback.  It also happened to be his 500th homer, giving Sox fans something to cheer about at the end of one of the most miserable seasons in recent memory.

GOOD SIGNS

1. Twin killing.  Thome entered the year as a career .319/.408/.641 hitter against Minnesota.  He improved upon that line with a .333/.484/.792 performance in 2007, with a homer in each of the last six games.  And now with Johan Santana gone, there's one fewer left-handed obstacle.  There's a reason Twins blogger SBG wanted the Twins to trade for him before the Sox did

2. Strong finish.  Over his last 36 games of the season, Thome slugged .742.  He'll probably continue to have at least one extended power drought a season, but that he thrived in a good month for pitchers should be a reason for optimism.

3. He maintained his walk and strikeout rates.  Extrapolate Thome's plate appearances to 610 (his 2006 total), and that gives him 108 walks (107 in 2006) and 152 strikeouts (147).

BAD SIGNS

1. Major liability against lefties.  In 169 plate appearances against southpaws, Thome hit .196/.314/.350.  Jerry Owens had a .316 OBP against lefties, to give you an idea of how bad that is.  Over his last three full seasons against lefties, he's slid from an .803 OPS to .715 to .663.

2. Games missed.  Thome's 536 plate appearances represented his second-lowest total in his career since he became a full-time player.  The other was his last season in Philadelphia, when he missed more than half the season with back and elbow injuries.  He's also 37 years old, so there's no reason to believe he'll be any healthier, though it's possible.

3. Ground balls.  2007 marked his first full season in which he hit more grounders than flies.  He did the same in his largely ineffective 2005, and it goes without saying that when he hits balls on the ground, the pitcher is extremely pleased.

2008 OUTLOOK

It'll be a good season if...

Thome will be closer to 40 than 35 when the season starts, so it's crucial that he has more help.  In theory, that's what Josh Fields and Nick Swisher should provide.

Fields is the Hulk against lefties, and could slide to the DH spot to prevent Thome from seeing unfavorable matchups.  Swisher should give Thome more pitches to hit, and also allows Thome to rest if he needs it.

Against righties, Thome hit .315/.455/.668.  As outstanding as that is, it fell short of his 2006 line.  Optimistically, he would be able to maintain his 2007 line into the 2008 season, because even if his decline against righties continues, it should be offset by seeing less left-handed pitching.

Realistically, given Thome's health history and age, anything over a .390 OBP, .500 SLG and 125 games would be gravy.

PROJECTIONS

Jim Thome	AB	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2008 ZiPS	372	24	81	.253	.378	.487	.865
2008 BJH	428	32	76	.259	.395	.530	.925
2008 PECOTA	397	29	79	.267	.379	.531	.910
2008 JCM	419	30	94	.272	.401	.539	.940