Meet the Sox

Scott Linebrink

ESSENTIALS

• Contract
  
  • 08: $4M; 09: $4.5M; 10: $5M; 11: $5.5M
  • Full no-trade clause
    
• Stats
  • Baseball-Reference.com page
  • ESPN.com current stats
  • FanGraphs
    
  • First Inning
  • PECOTA
    

2007 RECAP

It's never a good sign for your reputation as an ace setup man when, with your team in the midst of a heated pennant race, you're traded for no immediate help.

That's the jist of what happened to Linebrink in 2007.  The San Diego Padres shipped him before the deadline to the Milwaukee Brewers for minor leaguers Joe Thatcher, Steve Garrison and Will Inman.  Making matters worse, the no-name reliever the Padres received (Thatcher) turned into a lights-out LOOGY.  For Kevin Towers, it was both a gain in the short and long term.

Linebrink actually pitched well for the first two months of the season (2.19 ERA, 16 hits allowed over 24 2/3 IP), but the hits started dropping in June.  From May 26 to July 23, the end of his Padres career, he gave up 27 hits and eight walks in 22 1/3 innings, striking out only 11.  Five of those hits left the yard, and his ERA spiked to 3.80 in the process.

His peripherals weren't altered by two or three bad games -- in his 23 outings during that stretch, he gave up at least one hit in 18 of them. 

The Brewers hoped a change of scenery would serve him well.  Instead, he became the primary culprit in a rough stretch of games in Milwaukee.  Over the stretch of five outings beginning Aug. 17, he gave up eight runs on 11 hits over 4 2/3 innings, taking three losses.  The Brewers dropped a key game to the Cubs on Aug. 28 that dropped Milwaukee below .500 for the first time since early April.

He did settle down in the final month of the season, striking out 13 over 11 1/3 innings and giving up only three earned runs.  It was too late for the Brewers, but it paid off for Linebrink.  He signed a four-year, $19 million deal with full no-trade protection Nov. 22.  The acquisition cost the White Sox their second-round pick in the 2008 draft.

Linebrink claimed that his midseason struggles were due to off-field issues, namely that his pregnant wife was nearing her due date around the time of the trade.  We'll see if that's all there was.

GOOD SIGNS

No. 1: September surge.  Linebrink used to strike out a batter an inning during his two-year peak in 2004 and 2005.  He returned to that rate after the trade to Milwaukee, temporarily reversing a three-year decline in that category.

No. 2:  Increase in grounders.  In San Diego, Linebrink posted a groundball-to-flyball ratio of 1.06.  In Milwaukee, that jumped to 1.64, perhaps because of adjustments for pitching in a smaller park.

No. 3:  Walk rate.  Even though Linebrink saw his walk rate increase to 3.19 BB/9IP, that's still better than any Sox reliever posted last year, aside from Bobby Jenks and Ehren Wassermann.

No. 4:  No severe splits.  Unlike Wassermann, Linebrink can go a full inning and doesn't see severe platoon splits -- in fact, he's tougher on lefties.  That'll come in handy, since a large percentage of the division's big bats hit from that side of the plate -- Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Grady Sizemore, Travis Hafner, Curtis Granderson, Alex Gordon, etc.  Victor Martinez is slightly worse as a left-handed hitter, as well.

BAD SIGNS

No. 1: Walk rate.  Note the "even though" clause in Good Sign No. 3.

No. 2:  Strikeout rate.  Note the final clause in Good Sign No. 1.

No. 3: Home run rate.  Even though he spent a large chunk of his season with cavernous Petco Park as his home field, he served up gopher balls at a far more frequent pace.  It's been trending downward for a few years now:

• 2004: 10.50
• 2005: 18.42
• 2006: 8.41
• 2007: 5.86

No. 4: Road stats.  To no one's surprised, Linebrink pitched better in Petco than anywhere else in 2007.  However, the disparity is concerning:

Location	W-L	ERA	GS	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	K
Petco Park	3-0	2.10	25	25.1	16	6	4	7	15
Elsewhere	2-6	4.60	46	45	52	23	8	18	35

In previous years, there was no discernable difference.  The increase in the gap could be luck, but it could also be masking more serious problems regarding Linebrink's effectiveness.

GRAY AREA

No. 1:  Inherited runners.  Linebrink has seen only 24 inherited runners between 2006 and 2007 combined.  Matt Thornton, Mike MacDougal and Boone Logan averaged 63 in 2007 alone.  Ryan Bukvich (39) and Ehren Wassermann (27) topped  Linebrink's two-year total in half a season apiece.

The depth in the San Diego bullpen allowed Linebrink the comfort of starting a large majority of the innings he pitched.  If the Sox bullpen is anywhere near as terrible as it was last year, Linebrink will be expected to get the last out of the seventh inning before pitching the eighth far more often.  That's uncharted territory.

2008 OUTLOOK

It'll be a good season if...

Linebrink used to be the bridge to Trevor Hoffman in San Diego, but was surpassed by Cla Meredith, Heath Bell and Doug Brocail from the right-handed side.  The Sox expect him to be the man once again in 2008.  It's not only the four-year contract that shows their commitment, but the fact that he's the lone outside addition to the bullpen thus far.

That said, I have the feeling that the Sox organization will hold Linebrink to different standards than, say, the readers of this site or South Side Sox.  The former likely expects numbers around Thornton's 2006, whereas the latter are praying he doesn't collapse during his transition to the American League.

I'd be happy with an ERA under 4.00, which he achieved last year despite his struggles, but his home run rate was roughly on par with Brandon McCarthy's 2006, during which Black Mac was labeled "homer-prone" and couldn't be trusted in late-inning situations during tight ballgames.  He has to return to at least his 2006 level to be considered a success.

However, to be worth the investment, he has to perform like the two-headed monster of Matt Thornton and Mike MacDougal that served as the setup man in 2006.  When considering the downward trends, tougher league and smaller ballpark, I think that's way too much to ask.

PROJECTIONS

Scott Linebrink	G	W-L	IP	H	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2008 ZiPS	70	5-5	69	75	12	23	49	4.70	1.42
2008 PECOTA	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2008 JCM	65	3-5	66	70	10	22	54	4.15	1.39