posted on Friday, December 28, 2007 12:37 AM by Jim

Mark Buehrle

ESSENTIALS
2007 RECAP

While the White Sox as a whole suffered through their most miserable season in recent memory, Buehrle couldn't ask for a better year amidst the carnage. It started ominously, as he left his first start after four outs when he took a Ryan Garko liner off his forerarm, but did he ever rebound.  He tossed a no-hitter in April, earned victory No. 100 in June, signed a four-year, $56 million deal to stay in Chicago in early July, and became a father at the end of that month.

Before, during and after those watershed events, he recovered from his dismal 2006 to regain his status as one of baseball's best pitchers.  The only thing lacking was his win total, and we can blame the offense and bullpen for that.  At least he won 10, marking the seventh consecutive year in which he boasted double digits in the "W" column.

He never gave much reason to worry about a relapse either, because he didn't come close to encountering a real slump  In fact, the closest he came was in his final two outings, allowing four runs over six innings the start after allowing seven runs over 6 1/3 frames against the Angels.  It marked only the second time all season that Buehrle failed to string together two quality starts.

If there's one nit to pick, it's that he suffered a second-half decline.  It's nothing compared to what happened in the last three months of the 2006 season, but there are some noticeable differences:

Period
W-L
ERA
GS
IP
H
ER
HR
BB
K
First half
6-4
3.03
17
115.2
105
39
13
22
70
Second half
4-5
4.43
13
85.1
103
42
9
23
45

Buehrle allowed 10 hits or more in four starts; three of them came after the All-Star break.  He wasn't nearly as economical in the second half, and that could be due to a number of factors -- fatigue, warmer weather, or maybe just luck evening out over the course of the season, for example.  To rehash what I found to be an interesting number, opposing hitters' averages didn't seem all that out of line over the last two months:
  • 2006: .336/.376/.580 -- 5.35 ERA
  • 2007: .284/.337/.441 -- 5.08 ERA
To me, it seems like a disproportionate amount of balls in play found holes in the defense in the second half.  That'll happen to a guy with Buehrle's pitch-to-contact approach.

GOOD SIGNS

No. 1: Unearned runs.  For years, my only true pet peeve regarding Buehrle was his propensity to let mistakes in the field snowball on him.  In 2007, he cut his total of unearned runs dramatically, allowing only five all season.  He snapped a streak of four years with 10+ unearned runs and set a new career-low in the process.

No. 2:  Strikeout rate.  Buehrle's whiff total dropped by more than a strikeout per nine innings, from 5.67 in 2005 to 4.32 in 2006.  He bumped it back over 5.00 in 2007 (5.15), which helps him immensely, making him less reliant on depressing his BABIP.

No. 3:  Home run rate.  Buehrle allowed 14 fewer home runs compared to his 2006 total while pitching three more innings, and 13 of the 22 homers he allowed came at U.S. Cellular Field -- respectable rates both home and away.

No. 4:  Stolen bases attempted.  Opponents don't even try to run on Buehrle anymore.  Look at these numbers:
  • 2004: 13 attempts
  • 2005: 11 attempts
  • 2006: 11 attempts
  • 2007: 5 attempts
I don't know how much information you can glean from pickoff totals, but he saw a 50 percent drop-off in that category, going from 10 in 2006 to five in 2007.  Part of that is due to allowing far fewer baserunners (he shaved his WHIP by 0.2), but it seems like runners even fear straying a foot too far from the bag.

BAD SIGNS

No. 1: Second half decline.  See above.

No. 2: Walk rate.  Between 2004 and 2005, Buehrle walked a paltry 1.70 runners per nine innings.  Over the last two years, he's seen that increase to 2.07.  That still places him in the top 10, but every little bit helps considering his...

No. 3: ...average fastball speed.  Buehrle did see a rise in his average heater.  The problem was that it wasn't by that much (85.7 to 85.9 m.p.h.).  His fastball did look more active, in that he was able to get the cutter in on right-handed hitters with far more success than he experienced in 2006.  However, it still serves as a reminder that if he's an inch or two off, he can look like Jamie Moyer -- one who hasn't given in completely to junkballing ways, that is -- in a hurry.

2008 OUTLOOK

It'll be a good season if...

Expectations will rise commensurate with Buehrle's salary, but the fact of the matter is U.S. Cellular Field is a helluva tough place to pitch.  That said, I'd be thrilled in he turned in another season with a sub-4.00 ERA, as long as he didn't need to allow a dozen or more unearned runs along the way.

Along with that, it'd help if he could improve his strikeout rate.  At the very least, he can't let it drop below 5.00 again, or he's playing with fire.  Same goes for his walk rate, which can't afford to rise.

And while I'm making requests, it'd be comforting if his second half totals were more in line with his first half's.  I'm not going to hold it against him if he's All-Star material in the first half and regresses towards his true talent level in the second, but you know what I mean.

Fifteen wins is by no means unrealistic, as long as he gets a little more help from his friends.  Buehrle pitched well enough to win 18 or 19 games last year.  If his teammates leave half the amount on the table in 2007, he'll get there if he does his part.

PROJECTIONS

Mark Buehrle
 G
 W-L
 IP
 H
 HR BB K ERA
 WHIP
2008 ZiPS
 29
 11-10
 202 224 24 47 108 4.32
 1.33
2008 BJS
 30
 11-11 200 213
 24
 45 114 3.96
 1.29
2008 JCM
 32
 14-9
 206 219 24
 46 113 3.88 1.28

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