Reading Room: Ozzie won't let Twins do anything wrong

Let’s start this Reading Room with a riddle: If a tree fell in a Minnesota forest and Ozzie Guillen saw it, would he start advocating for mass deforestation?
Here, he breaks down why the Twins are successful:

“One thing about the Twins,” Guillen said. “You only see a guy with 20 home runs and 80 RBIs, but one thing they do is put the ball in play. That helps. They play the right position and go first to third, they hit behind the runner and do a lot of good things.

Fun facts:
Can you guess the three most contactingest teams in the American League, in terms of fewest strikeouts? I’ll list them in reverse order (rank in terms of runs scored).

3. Minnesota Twins (5th)
2. Chicago White Sox (6th)
1. Kansas City Royals (10th)

Another fun fact — the Twins are going to win more games this year despite being far, far, FAR worse on the basepaths.
According to Bill James Online’s “Baserunning Gain” stat, last year the Twins finished +42. Combine it with their fine steal efficiency (+21), and they were a league-best +63.
This year, they’re -22 on the basepaths. They’re 64 bases worse. They’re only +5 in steals, putting them at -17 overall. All of those numbers are worse than the Sox’ (-11 and -2, respectively). Jason Kubel is particularly terrible, and since Denard Span decided to get picked off a ton this year, there’s nobody to make up for it.
No, the Twins’ offense works because they hit a lot, they hit for good power, and they walk a lot, meaning that if and when they go on kamikaze missions on the basepaths, another replacement will reach soon enough.
Oddly enough, the way Guillen’s Sox run the bases this year, they’re a very good match for the Twins in that respect. They just are more aggressive about it, and they don’t have a surplus of baserunners to make up for the casualties.
Guillen’s talent misevaluation of the Twins reminds me of something I read by Twins blogger Aaron Gleeman last week:

@brandonwarne52: Is Cuddyer overrated?
Definitely. Cuddyer makes $10 million per season and some people act as if he’s in the running for team MVP, yet he’s hitting .275/.340/.424 this year and has a career line of .270/.343/.452. His defense is overrated when people focus on his good arm instead of his poor range and his offense is overrated when people focus on his nice-looking RBI totals rather than his mediocre overall production. Cuddyer is a perfectly solid player who’s paid like and treated as a star.

This is the same Cuddyer whom Guillen referred to last month as “the most underrated player in the game.”
There are a lot of reasons to like what the Twins do. Guillen — and Hawk Harrelson, among others — have a nasty habit of focusing on the wrong ones. Only this time, it’s different. In the past, he’s griped about the Sox’ strikeout-prone ways, but that didn’t stop him from trying to maximize what was clearly a strength. When you actually use this mindset to form a team, you end up picking Mark Kotsay over Jim Thome.
Based on Kenny Williams’ interest in Adam Dunn and Lance Berkman before forking over cash for Manny Ramirez, I’m guessing he’s not going to let Guillen do it again.
*Speaking of Thome, Paul Konerko knew he was going to perform. Sure, Kenny Williams and Ozzie Guillen ask for Konerko’s input during the season, but why not when it would’ve helped?
*And Misc. Baseball dug up some stories on Thome’s rise through the minor leagues, including this item I keep forgetting about:

As his body filled out, Thome was switched from shortstop to third base at Class A Kinston. He has worked hard at that part of his game, too, but may never develop into a slick fielder.
O’Dowd worries that Thome may eventually fill out physically at, say, 6-5 and 240 pounds, like his brother Chuck. If so, he would have to be moved to another position, possibly first base or designated hitter.

*And back to Guillen, he said he’s not going to play all the kids. Which is fine, as long as Brent Morel gets a long look. At this point, I’d rather protect Tyler Flowers and Dayan Viciedo from upsetting Guillen with their swings and misses.
*A.J. Pierzynski, who doesn’t swing and miss, surpassed 1,000 innings for the ninth straight season. So you could probably squeeze in a Flowers start without hurting Pierzynski’s feelings. Hell, I’d think he’s already respected enough for breaking that milestone while Ramon Castro’s .300/.349/.530 line sat on the bench. Pierzynski’s been great as of late, but his contributions were negligible for a majority of the season.
*Bobby Jenks and Freddy Garcia may have thrown their last pitches in a White Sox uniform.
*Brent Lillibridge turned his infatuation with “Halo” into free stuff from Microsoft.

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jofpgallagher

Trying to analyse why the Twins win more games than the Whitesox is a tough task, and you have valid points in this article. Guillen is probably stating one fact (out of many others), but he knows better why the Twins win more. Obviously, Twins’ pitching is better….yeah yeah….We all thought the Whitesox had a better pitching staff, but the numbers speak for themselves. Pitching is a big factor, but I think the problem with the Whitesox is we have way too many “streaky” players. The Twins are more homogeneous in their hitting capabilities. For example, Carlos Quentin, sure, he brings in 100 RBIs, 30 Hrs, etc. However he is very mediocre. Quentin’s production comes in very few outbursts during the season. For example, he comes a have one game with 6 RBIs, then follow it with another with 4 RBIs, then he goes 15 games with 3 RBIs. A total of 13 RBIs in a 17 games span. Looks pretty good, but in reality it is pretty awful as he didn’t produce evenly, and hits for a mere 230 AVE. Quentin is very overrated in my opinion and I wish we trade him away. Whereas the Twins, they have Joe Mauer, he hits all the time, all year long. Mauer’s slumps are usually very short (few games and he is back hitting). Players like Morneau, Kubel, Cuddyer, they all contribute evenly. Therefore, you seem to see a team that hits a lot when in reality they hit not way above the Whitesox. Alexei Ramirez first two months of a season seem to be a waste. AJ is similar to Quentin, he has great outburst production, but he is more often unproductive than not. Alex Rios was good this year, So was Konerko. We should keep Konerko. My point is that this team needs players that are good 6 months of the season rather than 1 or 2 months per 6 months. I have not doubts Beckham will be one of those. Viciedo too, but we have other players we need to get rid of. Also we need an outstanding player. Those that are slump-free. Those that are the difference makers. Like Mauer for the Twins. The last one we had was Frank Thomas.

striker

I’d have to disagree with you, though I haven’t actually done my home work to prove anything. I’m willing to bet that all baseball hitters are streaky, which makes sense when you go to the plate 600 times a year. The problem with the White Sox is they are all good or all bad at the same time. Sure we have a good batting average with RISP, but that’s because we go 5-10 one day then follow that up with 1-10. Sure that’s a .300 average but you have a 1-1 record over those two games.
What this team needs is consistency from the starting rotation. They are the main reason we sucked the first two months. They are the reason we are sucking the past two games.

bigfun

“What this team needs is consistency from the starting rotation. They are the main reason we sucked the first two months.”
April-May pitching: 4.58 ERA
April-May offense: .239/.315/.395
Their pitching was mediocre, but their offense was off-the-charts awful.
And consistent vs. streaky production doesn’t matter, unless like Striker says everyone is streaking or not streaking at the same time, which you can’t really control. Mauer and Thomas are just great hitters, I guess anyone who gets on base nearly half the time is going to seem “consistent” but looking for consistency as some kind of skill or trait doesn’t seem practical.

eddiestankysghost

Yeah, Mauer and Thomas are hall-of-famers.
There’s a strategy lurking there: Sign more hall-of-famers who are producing at their peak.

expatnyc

Too bad about Bobby. I know he could be a real pain in the ass, but I’m still sort of touched by his comment about buying a house in Chicago. Still, that would free up some cash. Seems we’re going to need that.
I wouldn’t want you to stop, Jim, but every time you analyze Guillen’s baseball thinking, I become more infuriated at his weirdly poor judgment.
I’ll try to focus on how awesome Lillibridge is.

brent

I can’t see any team spending the big bucks on Jenks this offseason. Any chance the Sox bring him back on a “regain your respect” type contract similar to Putz ‘10? I would be all for that.

bigfun

Not likely. They would have to non-tender him and then try to sign him as a free agent. That works sometimes – Oakland did it with Jack Cust this past offseason. But it’s the exception to the rule. Players taking pay cuts typically would rather do it in a different organization.

fustercluck

Hard to envision the two sides avoiding arbitration. Definitely don’t see the team winning arbitration. Logic would seem to point to paying less on the closer. (It’d be nice if they went with fluid closing assignments, but Ozzie might be too old school for that.) Bobby’s still a young dude that probably wants a raise and not a demotion. And if he can find a club that will pay up, more power to him.
Here’s how I see his path back to the Sox:
— non-tendered
— underwhelmed by market for closers
— comes back for respectable offer, some measure of comfort/loyalty
Ultimately, pride might keep him from coming back; Orgullo Sox!!! And the Mets could be gearing up to overpay somebody else for saves.

striker

Bobby will go to the Nationals for a one year deal, rebound and get dealt for a top prospect, ala Matt Capps.

fustercluck

Like Closers for Prospects

knoxfire30

I really like ozzie, but his misconceptions about how games are won and loss in the year 2010 are frightening.
OPS and Runs scored are so so so much more important then speed and defense im not sure how much more I can take before my head explodes.
And this putting the ball in play notion is beyond rediculous, did omar vizquels two at bats with guys on third and 1 out suck because of lack of contact….
The yanks have struck out 200 more times then the sox, 200!!!! Has that really hurt their offense???

soxfan1

The more I hear Ozzie talk, the more I dislike him as a Manager/Leader.
As for why the Twins win more games than the Sox how about better hitting and fundamentals (moving runners, bunting, etc). If you don’t play the “Twins Way”, you don’t play.

eddiestankysghost

I think I hear you saying you don’t like hearing him talk when they’re losing. There’s nothing like losing to induce a fan to dislike a manager.

jimbulla

The Sox are not in second place because of Ozzie or because of all of the stats flying around. They are where they are because there are only 2 teams in all of baseball that have more wins than the Twins. New York and Tampa each have a whopping one more win. The Twins have a very very good ball club. I’m a lucky guy and get to go to about 30 games during the year. I believe when you see games at the park you don’t get hung up on the stats as much and just enjoy the game – even if you have to hold your nose and tip your baseball cap to the Twins in 2010.

soxexile

I’ve got no numbers to back this up, but I wonder if guys like Quentin do REALLY well against certain types of pitchers, but poorly otherwise. That way, he’ll have some monster days, and other really lousy days. Multiply that times a bunch of guys with similar tendencies, and you’ll get a roster that scores a bunch of runs, or none. You win half your games by a huge margin, lose the other half, and in the end your stats look great but you’re won/loss stinks.
Anybody better than me with stats able to say if that makes any sense?

bigfun

2010 Team
vs. power pitchers .265/.351/.422
vs. finesse pitchers .283/.338/.445
vs. average pitchers .246/.308/.381
vs. left-handed starter .252/.323/.416
vs. right-handed starter .275/.336/.429
2010 Q!
vs. power pitchers .266/.392/.532
vs. finesse pitchers .227/.305/.485
vs. average pitchers .271/.358/.479
vs. left-handed starter .210/.326/.395
vs. right-handed starter .250/.336/.516
From Baseball Reference. The team L/R split is negligible but I’m not sure what to make of the team’s apparent problems with pitchers who don’t fit either the power or finesse categories. I’d be careful about reading too much into these numbers, but it does look like Quentin was worse against lefties and finesse pitchers.

bigfun

By Fangraphs’ pitch value stats, both the team and Quentin did well against fastballs but seemed to struggle with sliders. I’m not familiar enough with pitch type linear weights to say how meaningful these numbers are in this context, though.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6274&position=OF#pitchvalues

bigfun

I checked and that platoon split appears to be new this year – Quentin hasn’t really had one the past few years. Could be a sample size issue, though.

bigfun

Yeah, I suppose that’s true. He was nearly as good against lefties in 2008 as righties (.937 OPS vs. .975 OPS), but obviously that year looks like the outlier in his career thus far.